Price Watch

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 17, 2008 11:47 AM EDT Comment 51 comments

Just like yesterday how about we examine the performance of one David Price to other great young hurlers and their first season of at least six or more starts in the minors. I decided to include a few Rays high school arms as a close comparison and a few really good college arms for more direct comparisons.

Player	IP/GS	K/IP	BB/IP	K/BB
Price	6.1	0.97	0.28	3.47
Kazmir	4.4	1.33	0.4	3.29
Shields	6.5	0.87	0.15	5.7
Hellickson	5.6	1.23	0.2	6
Lincecum	4	1.81	0.38	4.8
Miller	6	0.78	0.32	2.44
Prior	5.7	1.55	0.35	4.39

Frankly I hadn't noticed that Price stacked up quite this well. Yes, the K rate is a little weak, but his low walk rate goes a long way in soothing that and I'm hopeful it rebounds as he adapts to the AA lifestyle. One thing to be really encouraged about: as of now he's allowed the same amount of homeruns against that you and I have this season.

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I like the results

I don’t need huge K totals if he is getting outs (are you reading this Kazmir??) because I love the 3.5 K/BB ratio. I’m still most impressed by the fact he has 0 homers allowed in 60.2 IP.

by Jason Collette on Jul 17, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And large amount of that time was spent in Vero

Which is an offensive park if I recall.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 17, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I had to open my big mouth...3 HRs tonight

by Jason Collette on Jul 17, 2008 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how many more starts for price in AA?

i think that 2 more might be enough and then i think that he could be called up straight from AA if they wanted to because AA and AAA arent really that much different, but i bet that he might be in AAA for a couple of starts.

by RaysOfHope on Jul 17, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

4/10

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 17, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

4/10?

I’m just scared to death that Price is going to get up here too soon and then initiate self-destruct mode. I’ve seen it happen with a lot of other pitchers, and it seems that you can never know when the next case will be.

B Rad the Ray Fan
9 = 8

by B Ray on Jul 17, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's made 4 of his 10 total starts at AA

Meaning he’s nearing the point he was at in Vero when he gained a promotion.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 17, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something about him going 6, 6, and 6 in starts at the different level of the minors

just doesn’t seem like good karma for him to be mixing in.

Blake
USF--Class of '09

by usfraysfan on Jul 17, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if the schedule would work out

but in late July the Bulls host Louisville. I would love to see a Price/Bailey match up.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 17, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sooooooooo

Why aren’t we all buzzing about Hellickson being promoted this year. If we’re basing it on merit, it’s a legt question.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 17, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hellickson

is no David Price.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And I repeat

If we are basing this on merit, rather than hype, where is the Hellickson love?

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 17, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We all love Hellickson

And the team promoted him to AA, where he’s struggled a bit. What’s the problem?

by Kevin Gengler on Jul 17, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just throwing it out there

If my reply to the second response seemed testy, it’s because I didn’t receive an answer the first time around.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 17, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And honestly

I think it has everything to do with expectations, age, and investment. Because of the amount of dough we have invested in Price, and his advanced age, we have every reason to want to get him to the bigs as quickly as possible. But just because someone is being groomed for a position, doesn’t in and of itself make them the most qualified. I tend to agree w/ Sandy Kazmir below.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 17, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or b/c he spent 4 years in college?

by davidsmarch on Jul 17, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fail

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whatever,

point is hellboy was 18 when drafted, and is still younger then price with less experience and less success at the same levels that price is now dominating. not taking anything away from price, he was brilliant in A+ ball, but price was better.

by davidsmarch on Jul 17, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

hellicksons 83k to 5bb in A+ this year is almost unbelievable…

by davidsmarch on Jul 17, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His K/BB on the season

is an astounding 14/1.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scouting plays a very important role

in all of this. Hellickson is not as polished as Price. His stuff is also not nearly as good. Price’s fastball is thrown harder than Hellickson’s, from the opposite hand (which is very important). Price also throws a plus to plus-plus Slider. It’s a true outpitch, something Hellickson does not posess. Their change-ups are equal.

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05/23/jeremyhellicksonreport/#comment-755

Here is a scouting report on Hellickson. If I had to grade Price in a similar manner, I would rate him like this:

Present/Future

Command: 55/60-65
Fastball: 60/60
Slider: 60/70
Change: 50/50

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good answer

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 17, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the report Tyler

How much of a bump to his tools do you give him for the high socks?

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 17, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how can a guy with 83ks and 5bb in 80 innings only have 55 control right now?

by davidsmarch on Jul 17, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Out of 60

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 17, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you're stuff is so good that hitters can't even hit the ball thrown right dow the middle, you might just aim down the middle every time, rarely throwing balls

but if you miss where you’re aiming by five inches and it’s still a strike, that’s not good control. and it bodes poorly for higher levels when you can’t just aim down the middle or you’ll get rocked.

that’s just an example of why a good K/BB ratio doesn’t guarantee good control. or command. or whatever word you use for “good aim”.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm no scout, but I think your scores are a bit on the conservative side

I’d like to see a full-blown report, but Baseball America already reported that they’re scouting his Slider at 70 now.

by kericr on Jul 17, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

seriously

out of 80, that looks like a completely mediocre pitcher.

by davidsmarch on Jul 17, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No it doesn't

You just don’t understand the scouting scale. Some people go by 10’s others prefer to have a middle ground, which is why you see the 55 in Kiley’s and my scouting report.

20- High schooler
30-Not big league material, probably not even minor league material
40-Below average for a big leaguer.
50- Big league average (Hint: Really good for a guy in AA)
55- Above-average (Hint: Awesome for AA)
60- Big league Plus (Hint: Superb pitch, can and does strike good big leaguers out)
70- Plus Plus (Think Kazmir’s slider when it’s on) Absurdly good, not many guys have a 70 pitch that they can consistently control, which is a big part of having a 70 pitch.
80- Doesn’t have another name, just 80. Some scouts don’t give out 80’s. If you have an 80 pitch it’s one of the best in the game, if not the best (Santana change-up, Blyleven curve). An absurdly good pitch.

Kericr, if anything, I’m being optimistic. BA did say Price’s slider was a 70, but they often are talking about what the pitch will be like when he’s developed. It’s probably not a 70 pitch right now. It may be at times, but not consistently. I also may have been a bit optimistic on his command. It may be in then 50 range, which would still be more than enough to get by. I also might have slightly underrated his fastball. I could see justification for a 65.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

those are current grades

You’ll also see some scouting reports give grades based on projectability. Given time, Player A’s 55 slider might “only” become a 60, but Player B’s current 45 slider might project to a 70.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is that the same Kiley that used to post back in the day?

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 17, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yessir.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 17, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Outstanding.

Kiley and Tyler could combine to form the ultimate whore of tools, like Madonna or something.

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 17, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait, maybe not.

If you mean the RaysTalk guy, then no.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 17, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, this was pre-RaysTalk. More like early raysbb.com and before.

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 17, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's TampaRays on raysbb.com

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

command/control

In your above scouting report, are you using “command” to mean “can his the spot he’s aiming at”? I see so many people throw around the words command and control in different ways and it’s really confusing.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Command means he can hit the corners.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How bout Hellickson's numbers

really puts it in perspective. Funny how prospects that aren’t afraid to take coaching can really put out. Kinda reminds me of Shields getting no love, using it, and now getting to the top. Davis/McGee who?

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 17, 2008 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hellickson's FSL numbers are a tad better

But let’s remember than Davis and McGee both made that league look foolish, too. Let’s see him do it in AA.

by Kevin Gengler on Jul 17, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It looks like Lefties are really pounding him in AA

The report Tyler posted mentioned that his breaking-ball, besides being inconsistent, tends to be used to backdoor lefties. Perhaps they are stepping into it. If so, it will take some adjustment, but overall just another great sign of our pitching coming up. You have to think with McGee going down he’s 3rd in line behind Price and Davis. Which brings me to the question of what is he worth?

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 17, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs