Captain Clutch

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 18, 2008 12:37 PM EDT

I've got a post coming up later concerning the Rays v. Red Sox, but here's a placeholder for your conversations with a little thought attached. Let me ask you, who do you think has the lowest OPS when faced with runners in scoring position?

A) Carlos Pena

B) B.J. Upton

C) Evan Longoria

Take a minute to think about this, which player performs the worst in runners on situations? I'll give you a hint it's not B.J. Upton, meaning it's either Pena or Longoria. Hey Pena strikes out a lot so maybe him, right? Well here's the thing...no. For all of the talk about how Pena is a rally killer check out his numbers this year:

Player	OPS RISP
Pena	0.921
Longoria	0.791

I'm going to assume this is a surprise to some, but I wanted to use this as a vehicle to ask if anyone else had noticed things about this team that are generally the opposite of the common conception?

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That's only one stat...

by rglass44 on Jul 18, 2008 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

RBI Percentage...

RBI Percentage is the percent of time a batter drives a runner in when given the opportunity.

It is (RBI-HR)/Runners on base

The team leaders in RBI Percentage are:

Hinske: 18.34%
Crawford: 17.03%
Navarro: 16.67%
Longoria: 15.61%
Pena: 14.73%
Upton: 14.62%

Generally I’d think high slugging percentage free swingers would score the best. That explains Navi and Crawford. Hinske is just pretty darn good with men on base, .272/.387/.524.

by tallyray on Jul 18, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

This isn't too surprising

I’ve never really thought that Pena was a rally killer anymore than most of our players.

However, one quick thing I’d like to mention. Pena’s low batting average is a rally killer. OPS has nothing to do with killing rallies b/c slugging has nothing to do with getting on base or not. Rally killing can only really be measured as IF you get on base, not how many bases you get once you get a hit. As in a single extends a rally the same way as a home run would.

I’ve always thought of Pena as an INNING ENDER. His low batting average and high strike out totals show this. Again OPS is irrelevant since we aren’t talking about how many bases someone gets, but IF they get on base at all (or if they do anything remotely productive at the plate).

Me thinking that Pena ending a lot of innings is not all his fault though. I’m sure he comes up to hit with 2 outs more than most. And it is not his fault our best player hits behind him and our 2nd best player hits in front of him. His ABs are magnified. If he had lower expectations and hit between Floyd and Bartlett I’m sure I wouldn’t notice that he is an inning ender.

Pena hits the ball harder than almost anyone ive ever seen so it is no wonder that his slugging should be very high. However, his disgustingly high strike out totals have side effects such as killing momentum and innings.

If you want to argue that his high slugging makes up for his high strike outs then you have a decent argument. But you cannot argue that there are not any bad side effects to having a low batting average.

by matthan on Jul 18, 2008 3:01 PM EDT reply actions

I wanted to stop reading at this point:

Again OPS is irrelevant since we aren’t talking about how many bases someone gets, but IF they get on base at all (or if they do anything remotely productive at the plate).

OPS = on-base percentage + slugging. On-base percentage = the amount of times a player gets on base. A player can’t have a good OPS without having a decent OBP/SLG, therefore players with high OPSes generally get on base while getting bases.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 18, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

RJ

It is common sense buddy. OPS is totally irrelevant to rally killing. Just like you said it is on base + slugging. If someone has the greatest slugging percentage of all time and a very low obp then they would be a rally killer, but yet they would still have a good OPS. It isn’t that hard to understand…

by matthan on Jul 18, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

I understand your assumption that someone with a high OPS probably has a good OBP. You would just get far more accurate results if you just eliminated the assumption and solely used OBP.

It is similar to someone saying that someone with a high OBP will have a good batting average. Sure it could be true, but why not just use the guys batting average?

by matthan on Jul 18, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not an assumption

Since 1960 (almost 50,000 cases) the r2 is .9125 between OBP and OPS. There’s no “probably” about it, and in fact I challenge you to find five or more seasons where a player has a OPS over .900 with an OBP below .340.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 18, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Rally killing can only really be measured as IF you get on base.

I agree. But this is OBP, not batting average. Rally killing is making outs.

As in a single extends a rally the same way as a home run would.

This is untrue. A home run is so much more valuable than a single. If a guy comes up with 2 runners on base ten times, and is 2/8 with two homers homer and two walks, he’s a lot more valuable than a guy who’s 3/10 with thres singles singles.

I’ve always thought of Pena as an INNING ENDER. His low batting average and high strike out totals show this.

The second sentence does not follow from the first.

However, his disgustingly high strike out totals have side effects such as killing momentum and innings.

A strikeout is less of a rally killer than a double play, no? And a strikeout is barely worse than any other kind of out. So you’re arguing that Pena’s propensity for making outs has the side effect of killing momentum and innings. But Pena’s OBP suggests that he’s, in fact, good at not making outs. And thus, good at extending rallies.

But you cannot argue that there are not any bad side effects to having a low batting average.

Sure I can. OBP is far, far, far more important than batting average.

by Peter Bendix on Jul 18, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree I should have been using OBP instead of batting average. However, my main point is that OPS cannot be used to determine if someone is a rally killer.

A of course a DP is worse than a K. But a K is an unproductive out. DP and triple plays are surely less productive than a K, but a BIP has a far higher chance of being a productive out than a K. In fact the worse a BIP could do is be just as productive as a K. When we are talking about rallys, which by definition mean men on base, then the more productive the out the better (moving men over, sac flies etc).

is untrue. A home run is so much more valuable than a single. If a guy comes up with 2 runners on base ten times, and is 2/8 with two homers homer and two walks, he’s a lot more valuable than a guy who’s 3/10 with thres singles singles.[/quote]

Perhaps we are arguing semantics. I did not think we were talking about value. We were talking about killing a rally. The only way you kill a rally is by making an out. You extend the rally by getting on base. You do not “extend” it any more if you hit a single or if you get a home run. In both scenarios the batting team will still have the same amount of existing outs after the hit.

If you want to talk efficiency in a big inning then I have no problem with you using OPS.

If you want to talk rally killing then you have to solely use OBP. The only possible way to kill a rally is to make an out.

I’m not arguing for or against Pena. I had no idea what his numbers were with RISP and I didn’t pretend to know. I was saying that it seems that he ends a lot of innings, and that has nothing to do with hitting with RISP. I was just pointing out that you should not use OPS when determining if someone is a rally killer.

by matthan on Jul 18, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

while a low OBP kill rallies, a high SLG creates them very quickly

and it’s not fair to compare balls in play to strikeouts, which i think should be obvious

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 18, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

The complsaint on Pena I've heard

is that he fails to hit with 2 outs. And this complaint is legit (Though in fairness the same is true of Longoria. Upton has been decent in these situations)

BA OBP SLG OPS
.168 .270 .297 .567

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 18, 2008 3:57 PM EDT reply actions