EqA and our Offense

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 2, 2008 10:39 AM EDT Comment 23 comments

Player	EqA	Position	Avg EqA
Hinske	0.304	RF	0.272
Longoria	0.301	3B	0.27
Upton	0.299	CF	0.263
Floyd	0.287	DH	0.257
Navarro	0.281	C	0.252
Riggans	0.277	C	0.252
Aybar	0.277	3B	0.270
Gross	0.274	RF	0.272
Pena	0.272	1B	0.276
Crawford	0.263	LF	0.269
Iwamura	0.262	2B	0.262
Gomes	0.261	DH	0.257
Bartlett	0.221	SS	0.249

The players colored in gold are the ones performing above their expected averages, the rest are either borderline or within .006 points with the exception of Jason Bartlett. Hinske being that good was a bit of a surprise to me, I suppose his .877 OPS has crept past me. Longoria, Upton, Floyd, and Navarro were no surprise, but having two catchers above average? At no time prior in Rays history have we really had one above average catcher, now two?

And for those wondering, here's a definition of EqA:

Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB).

Returning to Hinske I have to ask, should we start talking about re-signing this guy or simply sell high?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2008 - Eric Hinske	70	215	34	57	15	1	13	44	29	45	7	2	.265	.351	.526

He's not Wigginton, in the way that Wigginton was never quite this good and in 14 less games -- albeit 20 or so more at-bats -- Hinske has walked more times than he did last season. Nearly everything about Hinske, minus his slightly high HR/FB%, is right on career par, in fact his BABIP/xBABIP actually suggest he's been unlucky (.280 BABIP, league average is around .300, and 20% line drives suggest around .320 xBABIP), and yet players like Hinske, Wigginton, and Dan Johnson are almost always available.

He likely won't bring back Class-A compensation, ditto for trading him, and really can we even afford to trade him? I know Dan Johnson is down there in Durham and he has a few service years remaining before free agency, but in the end he's only two years and five days younger than Hinske.

It's just hard to see a scenario where Hinske, Johnson, and Gross can co-exist on the same team unless Hinske is re-signed as a DH type, replacing the likely retiring Cliff Floyd. Even then you'd be discussing two lefties "platooning" in right field, and it's very possible the platoon ends within a few weeks as it stands now unless the team has Gross/Murton or Nady or whomever envisioned in a similar role.

Poll

What should the Rays do with Eric Hinske?

Re-sign

90 votes

Trade

45 votes

Let him walk

25 votes

160 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 23 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Excellent info...

Hinske has been having a great season. As Magrane notes on the telecasts, Hinske works the counts incredibly well….which I know many of us enjoy seeing.

by td32 on Jul 2, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Big trade coming soon...

28 guys for a 25 man roster = trades

Mound Visit

by Mound Visit on Jul 2, 2008 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sell high or resign?

I don’t see much trade value for him. I seriously doubt we’d trade with an AL contender and his liability on defense reduces his value to NL teams. I can’t imagine Gross going anywhere this season. Johnson is stuck in Durham.

Along with Ruggs, Dohmann, Salas and Niemann.. it’s quite a luxury to have someone like Dan Johnson only a phone call away if needed.

For next year, if Hinske wants to re-sign for reasonable terms, fine. Otherwise, there are almost always bargain choices for lefty DH/corner types—Dan Johnson, Jack Cust and Carlos Pena, for a few examples in the last couple of years.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jul 2, 2008 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can someone explain to me....

Why, outside of Bartlett, we have our 2 worst offensive players at the top of the lineup? I think most of us knew that Aki and CC havent been performing too well offensively, but they are well below most of the other players. I dont see Maddon changing the linep around, but at least one of those 2 should be hitting 8 hole in front of Bartlett.

by td32 on Jul 2, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

b/c aki is the best leadoff hitter we've got (outside maybe upton, who would be wasted leading off),

and CC IS ONE OF THE BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYERS ON THE TEAM. all of you “what have you done for me in the past month” people are just in-fucking-sane, and need to relax a bit. CC has a track record of offensive success in the top 1/3rd of the order, and even though he’s having a “down” year (for CC), he still is a top 1/3rd guy, and WILL turn this around as the year goes on and end up hitting .300.

by davidsmarch on Jul 2, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd

Although I think we should all calm down. This can’t be good for our blood pressure.

B Rad the Ray Fan
9=8

by B Ray on Jul 2, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Month?

We’re through half of the season and there’s nothing totally unlucky about his numbers. He’s having a bad year and it could be because his knees are getting worse, that’s not encouraging whatsoever.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 2, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i see no reason to even think that his poor plate dicipline thus far this year has anything to do with his knees,

his somewhat down SB #’s maybe, but not his avg. also as you know, watching CC for years, you and i both know his SB’s come in bunches; he’ll got 10 games with a base in each one, or multiple, then he’ll go weeks without seemingly even attempting. if i’m a gambling man, which i am, i’m still betting on him getting 50+ by the end of the year.

by davidsmarch on Jul 2, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not talking about his poor plate discipline when I mention his knees

I’m talking about his BABIP regressing to the league wide mean and his INFH% falling down to nothing. His P/PA still isn’t very good, but if anything his knees getting worse should make him more patient so he can drive the ball.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 2, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i still see nothing to say his knees are getting worse,

i know there’s no stat to prove it either way, but watching the games i can’t really remember that many close plays at 1st on infield hits that i could reasonably say CC would have beaten out any other year. i don’t think his knees are the problem, there’s just something with his approach and swing. the only thing that really concerns me is the lack of XBH’s so far this year. his doubles numbers are down, as are his triples, and i am saying right now it’s not b/c of his knees, as i have watched every game and there isn’t a single time i remember a double that would have been a triple or a single that should have been a double; he’s just simply not hitting the gaps like he used to.

by davidsmarch on Jul 2, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's the one saying his knees aren't 100%

I’m just buying into it more this year than I would’ve if he said it last year.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 2, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why not adjust your lineup to who is performing?

I’m not talking about adjusting it every week based on who is hot and cold, but who has been performing over the course of 3 months. CC is one of the best offensive players on the team? Most in depth statistics would disagree, even over the course of his career. He would be FAR more valuable as a CF’er as opposed to a corner guy.

Why would Upton be wasted right now at leadoff. Since he isnt hitting HR’s, his strength is his OBP, which is a great characteristic for a leadoff hitter(or any hitter for that matter). If he begins hitting for power again, stick him in the midle of the lineup. The fact of the matter is, CC and Aki are performing all that well at this point offensively. You can use the counting stats all you want, because they are simple and the masses can understand them better. But, just about every front office evaluates players with stats like EqA. That stat factors in baserunning, yet CC still fails. Hell, CC couldnt steal off Wakefield last night. If his knee is bothering him, then maybe he shouldnt be at the top of the order.

by td32 on Jul 2, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if his knee is bothering him, it doesn't matter where he hits.

but to a more specific point, obviously you have to adjust your line-up based on how players are playing, but you can’t be reactionary, like you are suggesting. like i said, CC has proven success where he is, and yes CC is one of the best offensive players on the team, even over the course of his career, and i would like to see the stats that disprove that. Upton is hitting #3, his OBP and power potnetial and RBI production and speed and the whole package can be maximized by keeping him at #3, he’s where he belongs.

by davidsmarch on Jul 2, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

David, I know we clearly disagree on CC.....

But there are a couple things that are bothering me about CC this season. Let me preface this by saying he was one of my favorite players, and having hung out with him a few years back, I liked the guy. He is an amazing athlete. BUT….he has shown little improvement over hit career with regards to getting on base. His 2nd full season in the Bigs in 2004, his OBP was .330….As of today, his career OBP is .331. He needs to make adjustments at the plate, plain and simple. His BA has remained very similar since 2004, outside of last season .315. A GUY THAT PLAYS THE SPEED GAME NEEDS TO BE GETTING ON BASE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE!

I really wonder if he works on his game. I have no doubt that he works on his swing in the cages and all that good stuff. But he clearly isnt working on his approach. Watching a Major League batter(that is supposed to be an AllStar) swing at a fastball that is literally a food outside when he is ahead in the count is ridiculous. If this just happened because it was simply a mistake, that would be one thing, but it is about his approach at the plate. WHen you are ahead in the count, you look for a pitch in a particular zone. You dont take a half ass swing at a FB that is a foot outside. It doesnt happen…in fact, I had never seen it happen until the other night. A high FB that entices a batter is one thing, but not a FB in the other batters box.

Another thing that happened recently that made my jaw drop was watching CC attempt a bunt against the Pirates. It was easily one of the worst bunt attempts I had ever seen. And I am talking about his form. He looked like a Slugger that had never thought about a bunt in his life. That really disturbs me. You are talking about one of the fastest players in baseball, and I COULD TELL that he has worked very little, if at all, in his life at bunting. A guy like him could reasonably add 10 points to his BA just by learning how to bunt.

It is things like that which cause me, and others to get frustrated with CC. I think if he was some guy with fringe talent, most of us wouldnt be so adamnat. But the guy has immense potential and we all would love for him to reach that potential.

I am rooting for CC, but it just appears he is set in his ways.

by td32 on Jul 2, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Far enough.

You make a good point, but I am still loathe to admit the CC is depreciating so young.

B Rad the Ray Fan
9=8

by B Ray on Jul 2, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...But then again, I defer to Maddon on this one.

I remember complaining all last year at how Riggans should start over Navarro, now we’re talking All Star Game about ‘Navi. Maybe Maddon sees something we just don’t.

B Rad the Ray Fan
9=8

by B Ray on Jul 2, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

back to hinske, the point of this post,

he needs to be traded while his value is high. he is succeeding, and that is wonderful, and he has helped us immensely. but, his tenure with this team is going to be over in the foreseeable future. one day very soon we will have an every day RFer, whether it be this year or next (i’m pretty sure it will be this year), he will be relegated to DH duties, which suit him best. but, all things considered, you have to agree that we can do much much better then Hinske at DH, even if he is only part of a DH platoon.

by davidsmarch on Jul 2, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

GM's generally get burned

When they sign surprise players to their second contracts with the team. At the same time Hinske obviously has a lot of value this year (statistically and in the clubhouse). I think the wise course of action would be to let him walk, unless he wants to re-sign a club-friendly deal.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 2, 2008 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I like Hinske, but let's be sensible

He came to the team for free. He’s not a premium player with a future ahead of him like Carlos Pena was last year.

Let him walk and fill his spot with a free agent (because free agents WILL be interesting in coming) or deal from the wealth of talent for a better player.

Hinske is a hustle player, a blood and guts player, a clubhouse guy and well liked among the fans – but let’s be real…

There’s a better player, a better fit, a person who will fill that role out there- and Friedman will find him…

Besides, there’s more talent coming up the pipeline.

If you're not having fun, what are you having? There's already WAAAY too many serious moments in life.

by Manny Stiles on Jul 2, 2008 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I still like having Dan Johnson...

I ithnk Hinske could be packaged, but if not let him walk… Dan Johnson could probably be what Hinske is this year… Works counts, etc…

It’s a good problem to have

by Hazleton Jason on Jul 2, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Contributing to speculation

Here is a list of players who, at this time, are slated to become free agents at the end of this season. Assuming nothing changes, if Hinske is allowed to walk or is traded, his replacement will likely have to come from this list.

It’s not reasonable to expect to try to fill the DH position from the farm system. The DH is where good hitters who can’t field go to die. The only person who I could possibly see coming in from the team to fill the DH position is Crawford. First, i don’t think he’d have any of it on a permanent basis, and secondly, even if he did somehow agree to it, there is nobody at all anywhere near his defensive capabilities in the outfield anywhere in the Rays farm system right now to replace him.

Hinske’s stats for this year are right in line with the middle tier of DHs, in the company of the likes of Aubrey Huff and Jason Kubel. I personally believe that the Rays need to sign Hinske to a new contract in the 3 year, 10-12 mil range and look to sign a permanent right fielder to get more consistent offensive production, instead of creating a hole and letting a player go who is doing the job he was brought here to do.

by kericr on Jul 2, 2008 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember Pena?

We should trade him if possible or let him go if he gets expensive. The Rays have a knack for finding diamonds in the rough and he can be replaced. That does not reflect my appreciation for his contribution to the team this year though. He has been a great bat for us.

by TBfisherman on Jul 2, 2008 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hinske

He is a very patient hitter. If they can’t resign Hinske for a reasonable price, they should try to sell high & trade him. But, I say resign him if they can for reasonable money. Getting Xavier Nady would be awesome! I’m not a big believer in Matt Murton. Everything is just going great for the Rays right now & I would hate to break up the team chemistry they have going.

by drrub on Jul 3, 2008 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs