Who Would You Send To The Bullpen?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 20, 2008 2:19 PM EDT

Would you demote Edwin Jackson who's got nasty stuff, but doesn't actually strike out a ton of batters and walks more than he should? Or would you demote Andy Sonnanstine who strikes out almost nobody, but also doesn't issue any free passes? Who the better starter? Who would make the better reliever?

Evidently all fan shots must be at least 75 words long. So just ignore this paragraph an go vote while I vamp to fulfill the length requirement. That should do it. Vote!

Poll

When David Price joins the rotation, who would you send to the bullpen?

1 recs | Comment 48 comments

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As much as it pains me to say this...

I’d send Sonny. Jackson has more potential and has been having the better year in the rotation, despite not having the flashy record Sonny does. Hopefully Sonny could pull a JPeezy and be good in the pen, or he can fulfill his manifest destiny and go to the NL.

by hibachi7_7_7 on Jul 20, 2008 3:10 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm sorry

Can I change my vote after todays game? I had forgotten how much Jackson actually sucks.

by hibachi7_7_7 on Jul 20, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Neither!

Price would do just fine to come out of the pen as a LH reliever which is needed. Unless of course you like seeing Trevor “I get lit up like a pinball machine” Miller from the left side? What else is needed?

Al Reyes needs to be traded, waived, or given his unconditional release. He SUCKS! As I stated before, I’d take 10 lbs. of catfish for Al. He’s a nice guy, but that just don’t win too many ball games.

I didn’t vote in the pole because I would F*&! with the starting staff. Andy’s got 10 wins and Jackson will be fine. Edwins the kind of guy that can throw a SHO in the playoffs with his stuff.

1-Price to the pen! 2-Reyes for 10-lbs. of catfish. 3-Miller can sit and watch

by John 63 on Jul 20, 2008 3:29 PM EDT 0 recs

Tell me Al Reyes is a nice guy

while he’s spitting blood on you at a bar

by Albertrayon on Jul 20, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Andy

because I trust him more than I do E-jak. He would be a right handed version of Howell. Not overpowering but going to throw strikes and not give away bases. Also, I have read Maddon say several times that he equates Sonny’s ability to do well with lesser stuff to his conviction. I would think that would also translate into a good mindset for the pen.

All this being true then when Price is added to the rotation Edwin becomes are #5 starter. Though he is inconsistent his stuff as a #5 starter would be unreal.

by JRays on Jul 20, 2008 3:47 PM EDT 0 recs

you'd rather have an extra trustworthy guy in the bullpen than a trustworthy starter?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 20, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'd send Jackson to a trading partner

I’m to the point I cannot watch games in which he pitches any longer.

by Jason Collette on Jul 20, 2008 4:12 PM EDT 0 recs

No shit...couldn't agree more. Watching Edwin Jackson is impossible. His inconsistency is too inconsistent.

Screw the “potential” and trade him. He keeps pitching like this his value will decrease signifigantly. Package a deal together and get a starting RF and/or some bullpen relief. Street please….or Rausch or Fuentes.

by Rays Rule on Jul 20, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

You guys only remember the bad starts....

Jackson has a 4.23 era in his last 31 starts. That’s over a run less than Sonny. He is a very good #4/5. He is also still very young, improving and has shown the capability to be dominant at times.

by save_the_trop on Jul 20, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

For giggles

Entering today, each of their FIPs:
Edwin 4.32
Sonny 3.59

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 20, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Over 30 games, his era is still more than a run lower...

by save_the_trop on Jul 20, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Don't use ERA alone to judge pitchers.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 20, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Keeping runs off the board is a good indicator of pitching success...

In their last 31 starts, Jackson has done a much better job of doing so than Sonny. Also, considering the occasional blow up that Jackson has (like today) it stands to reason that he is fairly good a majority of the time to maintain such a low era.

by save_the_trop on Jul 20, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Okay, let me restate that:

Don’t use ERA alone to judge pitchers.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 20, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

In fact, read this

http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/29/evaluating-pitcher-talent/

It’s written by a person smarter than just about everyone on this site.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 20, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

FIP is better?

Dave’s post even states that it isn’t perfect. How many times have we seen Sonny have 5ks, 0bb and still give up 5 runs because he gives up strings of doubles. I know era isn’t perfect either, but when you’re talking about 31 starts the better pitcher will usually have the better era. Since Jackson’s era during this time has been nearly a run lower than Sonny’s, even with the same defense and same home park, it’s hard to argue that Sonny has been the better pitcher. Jackson has more quality starts, has pitched more innings and has a much lower BAA. I know you will disreguard all of this and go with your old standby’’s of K/BB etc., but in this case those #s paint an inaccurate picture of these 2 pitchers performances. I don’t even know why I bother with this when you won’t even admit that Jackson has improved since the beginning of last year.

by save_the_trop on Jul 20, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes, FIP is better than ERA

and xFIP is probably even better, although pitchers do show some skill in preventing homeruns on flyballs.

just because better pitchers usually have better ERAs doesn’t mean you can just assume better ERAs imply better pitching. both Jackson and Sonny are pitching eerily similar to last year. and the two have eerily similar peripherals, except that Sonny walks two fewer batters per nine innings.

want to make a friendly bet about who has the better ERA the rest of the season?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 20, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

the better pitcher will also tend to have more wins

but wins are a crappy pitching stat, too

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 20, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sonnanstine, only because he is more versatile than Jackson

I’d like to see Jackson get traded for Nady more than anything.

by blazinrayz on Jul 20, 2008 5:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Jackson

His last 4 games were ALL quality starts, in which he gave up 7 runs total. Inconsistency? Unwatchable? Where, because I didnt see it.

“if he keeps pitching like this”—you act as if he has lost all value and should be DFAd. When that couldnt be further from the truth. You know how many rotations in this league Jackson would have no problem fitting into right now? Jeez, this is pathetic

by blazinrayz on Jul 20, 2008 5:04 PM EDT 0 recs

He could fit into the rotation

of any team that isn’t contending. He’s just too inconsistent to pitch for a contender. If we make it to the playoffs, would you trust Jackson in any capacity, either as a starter or a reliever? I sure wouldn’t.

by hibachi7_7_7 on Jul 20, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sure, he has some really bad games from time to time....

but they are far less frequent than many seem to think. He also has gome several stretches this season where he has strung together several quality starts in a row.

by save_the_trop on Jul 20, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

but we wouldnt

have jackson in the rotation in the playoffs anyways. we are likely looking at a rotation of Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price in the playoffs.

by tbrays14 on Jul 21, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

This topic should go well.

It’s getting harder to say Jackson has nasty stuff when he’s striking out fewer and fewer batters. More fast than nasty.

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 20, 2008 5:07 PM EDT 0 recs

Seriously

Including today in his last 6 starts he’s walked 13 and struck out 12 I believe.

That’s awful. Just awful.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 20, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

BUT JACKSON'S HIT 99 ZOMG

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 20, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

I would rather have the inconsistent guy starting

because he has a whole game to work through his problems. With a guy coming out of the pen there is not as much time for the offense to score runs. Also, when trying to hold a lead you don’t want base runners and Sonny gives you the better chance of that.

I am not going to get in the ERA or Wins things because after reading the debate on the two pitchers over the season I think we could all agree that they are pretty comperable players with different skill sets. Some people will love Jackson because he throws hard and has potential. Some people will love Sonny because he has great control and allows very few walks.

So as far as the question was originally posted I would trust Sonny more coming in a game later with even a slim lead.

by JRays on Jul 20, 2008 9:29 PM EDT 0 recs

If Sonny is more reliable than he should pitch more innings...

I’d much rather the reliable guy throwing the most innings. I don’t really understand why you’d want the less reliable pitcher throw more innings just because he can’t hurt you in a crucial spot. He does hurt in a crucial spot, he causes games to be out of hand from the beginning.

That said, a reliever with a K/BB nearing one isn’t a good situation.

Both Edwin and Sonnanstine need to strike more guys out. Without the K’s, Sonnanstine is in a much better situation to keep excelling than Jackson.

by tallyray on Jul 21, 2008 12:02 AM EDT 0 recs

I think this is a pretty moot question.

I don’t think we will see Price up in the majors if both Jackson and Sonny are here. There would be little point to having Hammell, Howell, and one of those 2 in the pen and I’m guessing if we trade one of the 3 (not counting JP) it won’t be JH because he would have to be paired with a better prospect. (Jackson + Talbot > Hammell + Davis, I would think we would rather give up the first pair)

That being said if I had to choose one to move back to the pen it would be Sonny. He has a better ability to throw strikes and get hitters out and that is more valued in a 1-3 inning stint. I also think that when you are dealing with the #5 starter and long reliever it is more important to have the more solid guy (if it is pretty close) in the pen. I would rather have the better guy throwing once every four games than once every five. It doesn’t seem like a lot but over a couple months it builds up.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 21, 2008 1:33 AM EDT 0 recs

it's crazy to move a better pitcher to the bullpen

especially when it wouldn’t even be a high-leverage role out there. would you rather have a crappy pitcher reliever a good start or a good pitcher reliever a crappy start? would you rather have 6 IP at a 4.00 ERA and 2 IP from a 5.00 ERA or 6 IP from a 5.00 ERA and 2 IP from a 4.00 ERA? it’s a no brainer

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 10:42 AM EDT 0 recs

the other thing to consider is who would benefit most from shorter outings

Starters, on average, post ERAs a full run lower as relievers. Why? Because they can throw harder, they can throw only one or two pitches and get away with it, and they don’t have to face hitters multiple times (who will adjust the second and third time around).

So we should ask whether EJax or Sonny could take advantage of those advantages MORE. If one of them has three or four solid pitches, that would be wasted in the bullpen. Which one would benefit more from going all-out on their fastballs/sliders? Does one of them tend to tire more as the game goes on? Is one of them less crafty and get hit around more as the game goes on?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 10:45 AM EDT 0 recs

over the past calendar year (thanks fangraphs)...

Pitcher A: 5.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, .334 BABIP, 18.5/42.0/39.5 LD/GB/FB%, 7.3% HR/FB
Pitcher B: 5.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, .304 BABP, 18.9/43.1/38.0 LD/GB/FB%, 8.2% HR/FB

What do you notice? Both pitchers are extremely similar in their production. Same K-rate. Eerily similar line-drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates (i mean, like wow). Similar good HR/FB rates, although Pitcher A has been a bit luckier.

There are two large differences, though. Pitcher A has a much better walk-rate. And Pitcher A has been unlucky on balls in play turning into hits.

I’d want Pitcher A going forward, no?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 10:56 AM EDT 1 recs

Or maybe

Pitcher A isn’t that unlucky, and just is prone to give up more hits than average because his lesser velocity means that hitters are better able to catch up with his stuff and can direct it to an area of the field without defenders.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jul 21, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree...

That’s always going to be a problem with Sonny. He’s always going to be more hittable.

Jackson just hasn’t shown that he isn’t hittable as well. Plenty of contact is made and when he grooves one the ball goes a long way. He doesn’t strike enough batters out to make up for the fact he walks a ton.

Sonny will always give up hits but he limits the impact by limiting the baserunners. Sonny needs to strike out more batters in order to be more effective, but he’s better the Edwin right now.

by tallyray on Jul 21, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

"more hittable" usually results in "more likely to give up homeruns"

and not a significantly higher BABIP. the largest different in BABIP you can really assumem is .290 to .310. so maybe Sonny is a .310 guy and Jackson is a .290 guy (lower for both once you build in the Rays good fielding.) I’d still take Sonny. and I’ve already mentioned he’s bound to give up more homers going forward (7.3% HR/FB is too low).

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Largest difference in babip...

is only .02? The difference between the best and worst pitchers in the league on balls in play is only two hits per hundred in play? That seems awfully small.

by tallyray on Jul 21, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

that's out of my ass, mostly, but treat it as a two standard deviation range or 95% confidence interval

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

and i'm talking true skill -- once you take out fielding, ballpark, and do some regression if the sample is small enough

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

oh, and there ARE many pitchers who have true BABIP skills worse than .310

it’s just that they don’t stick around in MLB very long. the worse your BABIP ability, the better you have to be at preventing homeruns and walks. and pitchers allow so many balls in play that even small differences in ability add up quick.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Just to add...

Sonny’s ISO SLG% against is
EJAX is at .141 and Sonny at .172

The gap is closing. Sonny was absolutely terrible at the beginning of the year with runners on base and Edwin was great. Their ERAs from here on out depend on that continuing.

by tallyray on Jul 21, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

edwin is very streaky and i would rather know what im getting in sonny

everytime i start to change my mind about edwin he gets light up and by toronto! one of the worst hitting teams in the AL redicious! sonny might not have a future as a starter but right now his present is as a starter over ejax

by RaysOfHope on Jul 21, 2008 2:23 PM EDT 0 recs

This wasn't true in the past...

I looked into it a couple of weeks ago and Sonny actually had a large variance between starts than Edwin. It could have changed slightly but it’s close enough that it shouldn’t be a deciding factor.

by tallyray on Jul 21, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

you can measure variation/consistency

BPro has a FLAKE stat, which is just the standard deviation of the support-neutral value added of each pitchers starts: http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204017

A higher number means more inconsistency. Lower is more consistent.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

And to think that I just game logged it out and ran variances and st. dev. myself...

So Sonny is slightly higher by the BPro numbers as well.

by tallyray on Jul 21, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

i respect that you did it yourself, for what that's worth

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wouldn't Sonny gain some velocity pitching out of the pen the way Howell did?

I just think Sonny in general seems more like your typical bullpen-type pitcher. I don’t think E-Jax has enough control to make that one out when he needs to.

B Rad the Ray Fan
9 = 8

by B Ray on Jul 21, 2008 2:26 PM EDT 0 recs

which is why they should dump him to another team if he cant get that out

i dont care how hard edwin can throw because people just seem to hit it harder and sonny is one of the best control pitchers in the league and edwin is as wild as a bull when they see a red flag. as you mentioned sonny may be bullpen bound but not yet atleast this year they shouldnt because to me his success this season kind of suprised me and edwin getting light up like a christmas tree every so often doesnt

by RaysOfHope on Jul 22, 2008 12:07 AM EDT 0 recs