Rays The Favorites for Nady?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 21, 2008 11:24 AM EDT Comment 15 comments

• Outfielder Xavier Nady and reliever Damaso Marte continue to draw the most interest and, for that reason, they remain most likely to go. But neither will be given away. Two prospects will be sought for each. Nady's prime suitors remain the Tampa Bay Rays -- who might be the favorite because of their wealth of prospects -- and the New York Mets, New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves. Marte's suitors are a dozen deep.

It wasn't too long ago reports were the price for Nady were too high, that same article states the same for Jason Bay's pricetag, meaning the block's top two outfielders are unlikely to land with anyone, including the Rays. As for Nady, I'm mixed, on one hand I think he's okay, but I still can't help but think Matt Murton is just as good.

Also I just found this note from the Beaver County Times:

Among the players the Pirates reportedly have interest among the teams looking to trade are Cardinals right-hander Anthony Reyes and outfielder Chris Duncan, Tigers first baseman Jeff Larish and outfielder Matt Joyce, Yankees right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, Braves shortstop Brent Lillibridge (who was drafted by the Pirates in 2005) and outfielder Brandon Jones, Rays right-hander Jeff Niemann and a trio of pitchers with the Mets’ Class AA Binghamton farm club — left-hander Matt Niese and right-handers Eddie Kunz and Bobby Parnell.

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I've come to the decision that we require the following trade:

LHP David Price
RHP Edwin Jackson

for

RF Ichiro Suzuki!!!!!

Friedman, made it happen.

B Rad the Ray Fan
9 = 8

by B Ray on Jul 21, 2008 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My love of Ichiro is not in the same galaxy as my love of Price.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 21, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

Nor should it be.

by Vin on Jul 21, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nady for Niemman straight up makes a lot of sense for both teams,

and is probably an equal trade. i feel Niemann gets devualed b/c he can’t crack our rotation, but that’s not entirely refelctive of his worth. He would be a ML starter on the majority of other teams, and as we know has the potential to excell, though hasn’t shown the consistency to do so as of yet. what is Nady’s contract like? how many years will he be under team control?

by davidsmarch on Jul 21, 2008 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One more under team control after this season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 21, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

STREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET PLZ

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 21, 2008 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

stay away from Marte at the two-prospect price

wouldn’t take much more to land Street and he’s a WAY better option

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I love me some Huston Street

But Damaso Marte is quite good. His career ERA+ is 141, he’s left-handed, and he’s struck out more than a batter an inning every single season of his career except for 2004 (when he “only” Ked 68 in 73 innings).

I think Marte may be cheaper than Street, and may not be any worse.

by Peter Bendix on Jul 21, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marte's faced 58% righties in his career

and averaged about 45-50 IP, meaning he’s been LOOGY-ized (although not hard-core).

letting him face more righties and pitch more innings (like he has this year, doing better than I’d expect) will expose his platoon split more. I’d expect a 3.75 ERA in full duty (about his xFIP).

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can some one explain all the + stats to me?

B Rad the Ray Fan
9 = 8

by B Ray on Jul 21, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For ERA I believe it's just LG ERA/ERA

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 21, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe this is one of those stats where it's supposed to show unlucky vs lucky era's.

if the guy allows a lot of fly balls and has a 2-3 era, he’s probably due to an adjustment and has been lucky they haven’t gone out the park.

otoh, if a GB pitcher has a high era, he’s due for an adjustment down if he were to land with a better defense (look at our pitchers last year vs this year….nearly last place, if not last place, defense vs top 5 this year).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_ERA%2B just wiki’d it while i was at it and will go back to see how correct i was ;).

by chancedj on Jul 21, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok....really wrong on that assessment :). oops.

by chancedj on Jul 21, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the + stats compare a player's park-adjusted performance to league-average performance

it’s a good way to compare players across years and parks

it does not adjust for any sort of luck (statistical variation), though. for that, you want FIP (ERA-like number based on actual K-rate, BB-rate, and HR-rate) or xFIP (ERA-like number based on actual K-rate, BB-rate, with a HR-rate based on actual FB-rate and league-average HR/FB rate.)

(it’s been shown that pitchers don’t have a lot of control over how many flyballs leave the park, just how many flyballs they give up. some control, but not a lot.)

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't been huge on getting Nady because I'm afraid he just had a real good first half

but if we can get him for just Jeff Niemann, or even Niemann and a low propect, where do I sign the dotted line. While yes I feel that we undervalue Niemann because of our rotation the fact is he is a starter and not really one we would move to the pen and he won’t crack our rotation in the next 5 years pending a multitude of injuries.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 21, 2008 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I agree -- we might end up selling a bit low with Niemann, but that's infinitely smarter than, say, giving away Cardenas et al for Joe Blanton

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is no way that the Rays can get Nady for Niemann straight up. Thats ridiculous. Now Niemann and Brignac makes sense. The Pirates don’t have to trade Nady, and there are a lot of suitors for him. (The Evil Empire Yankees for example) So the Rays are gonna have to cough up some real prospects for him. I hope you guys do get him. I love the Pirates, but the Rays are my number 2 team, because I hate the Yankees and Sox and its nice to see someone challenge the big boys for a change.

by Bucco Fan on Jul 21, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They don't have to trade him

But they should because Nady’s value will almost certainly never be higher.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 21, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another view

I am not claiming this is the authoritative viewpoint. It is Will Carroll’s response to a similar proposal in his BP chat today.

“Greg (San Diego): Any chance that Nady and Grabow could bring back Niemann and Brignac?

Will Carroll: I supposed Andrew Friedman could be drunk at some point between now and the deadline.”

Apparently, in Carroll’s view, even if Grabow were added to the package, the Rays would not deal Niemann and Brignac to get Nady.

I don’t think the Rays will give up one of the elite prospects to get Nady, but they might be willing to give up 2 or so B level prospects. Nady has been a pretty useful player, but even with his career year this season he remains a lesser right fielder. His power is mediocre for a corner outfielder, or at least has been until this year, and he does not walk all that much.

He could be a useful bat and right fielder for the Rays, but I don’t think it smart to over-rate him based on his 1/2 year so far. If you look at his past two years, omitting his defense (which is indeed a factor), he is essentially Ty Wigginton. Ty brought a set up reliever who was having an off year. Why should Nady get much more?

Here are their stats for 2006-07:
2006
Ty: 444 ABs, 25 D, 24 HRs, .275/.330/.498, 112 OPS+
X: 468 ABs, 28 D, 17 HRs, .280/.337/.453, 102 OPS+

2007
Ty: 547 ABs, 33 D, 22 HRs, .278/.333/.459, 107 OPS+
X: 431 ABS, 23 D, 20 HRs, .278/.330/.476, 107 OPS+

Ty struck out a bit more often in 2006; X more in 2007.

by bobr on Jul 22, 2008 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neal? Is that you?

Xavier Nady is a solid player. But even a straight-up Jeff Niemann for Xavier Nady deal favors the Buccos…by a lot. The Rays may consider this deal simply because Niemann is expendable, but I doubt that Friedman would do it.

Let alone Niemann AND Brignac.

by Peter Bendix on Jul 22, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs