BJ Upton's Power (or lack thereof)
by Peter Bendix on Jul 22, 2008 12:53 PM EDT
51 comments
BJ Upton has been a very productive player for the Rays this season, both offensively and defensively. This is not intended to bash Bossman at all, but rather to ask the opinion of everyone here regarding this question:
Where is his power?
Here are some stats:
Upton is hitting the ball in the air less often this year (30.2% of the time) than last year (37.4% of the time). His LD% is exactly the same, meaning Upton is hitting more grounders than before. Additionally, whereas last year 19.8% of his fly balls became homers, this year that is down to 7.6%.
Upton is being more selective this year - he's swinging at 5% fewer pitches out of the strike zone (although he is making contact 20% more often when he does swing at balls), and swinging at 3% fewer pitches in the strike zone. His contact rate is up 7%, and, predictably, his walk rate is up (he has the same amount of walks this year as he did last year, despite having 134 fewer plate appearances), and his strikeout rate is down.
Interestingly, per his spray chart on MLB.com, it does indeed appear that Upton isn't pulling the ball often (check out how many fly ball outs went to right field, as well as the spread of where his singles fell). However, this is no different than last year, suggesting to me that BJ's propensity to go to the opposite field this season isn't directly related to his decline in homers this year - since he's no more likely to go oppo this year than last.
He is once again not showing any split between hitting lefties and righties.
I'm inclined to say that this is a 23-year-old undergoing a combination of bad luck and regression. Furthermore, it appears that his plate discipline is improving, which bodes well for his long-term outlook (especially since his plate discipline was already pretty good). If I had to guess, I'd say that Upton's power outage is simply a fluke of a small sample size (similarly, last year's power outburst may have been somewhat of a fluke as well), and that, as a 23-year-old with excellent plate discipline and the ability to hit for a solid average, Upton is likely to improve his power output in years to come.
What do you think?
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From Baseball Prospectus
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7811
As far as negative things go, though, Upton’s power has taken a hit. Last year he had a .209 ISO, solid for a hitter anywhere around the diamond, and very good in center. This year he’s posting a much less impressive .127 mark thanks to his hitting just six homers on the season. His HR/FB rate has dropped from an excellent 19.8 percent all the way down to 7.9 percent, and he’s hitting fewer fly balls overall as well (down from nearly 38 percent to 30). His ground GB/FB rate has jumped from a league-average 1.1 to 1.7; chances are good that in order to increase contact, Upton dropped some of the uppercut from his swing, and it’s killed his power output, especially to his pull side. In 2007, Upton hit the majority of his homers to left and left-center, as we can see via Greg Rybarczyk’s wonderful Hit Tracker. While he is still hitting the ball to that side—32.4 percent of his balls in play have been grounders to the left—he’s not lofting or driving the ball there at all, with a measly 4.3 percent of balls in play ending up in left field.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 22, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
As usual, Marc Normandin has bested me.
I usually read all of his stuff, I must’ve missed that article from last week. Thanks for posting it here.
But I still wonder if this is a mechanical change (intended or not) or a sample size fluke. Or both.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 22, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
His power went away in late June
During the Cubs series, if it is mechanical that seems like an odd time to suddenly lose his swing.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 22, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is he cannot pull the ball right now with any sort of consistent pop
This diminishes his extra base power.
Why is he having trouble pulling the ball? Here are some of the possibilities
1. Mechanical problem with his swing
2. Shoulder injury is still bugging him
3. Then maybe something like he is having vision troubles causing him to see the ball late.
What worries me is not the lack of home runs. As stated previously a different approach or simple regression could be the culprits.
But regression or a change of approach should not be the cause for his lack of pop. Lately he just hasn’t been hitting the ball with any authority.
But he wasn't pulling ball very often last year, either...
by Peter Bendix on Jul 22, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He was a gap to gap hitter
But he DROVE the ball last year when he did pull it last year. He hasn’t been hitting balls hard anywhere across the diamond. We haven’t seen him hit a ball hard to the left in center in awhile. Sure he hits a weak ground ball here and there, but that doesn’t count. It just means he got way out in front and was fooled by the pitch.
NP
I think seeing it works best for most people (self included) rather than reading the percentages
by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 22, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
What I also find concerning
Is the lack of homreuns this year between the 45 and 65 degree marks. Much like pulling the ball to left, those shots likely require more hip action than he has generated this year. It’s the shots to dead center that tend to be just meeting a mid 90’s fastball in the right spot.
by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 22, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Great charts
I believe this is Pena’s biggest problem too…
The cliche is that hitting the ball to all fields shows a complete hitter, however both Pena and Upton need to pull the ball much more to increase homerun totals.
I'd like to see a chart like this with all his XBH.
Either way there would be a dramatic shift from this year (right center) from last (left center)
Shoulder
I’ve said it enough, I’m not saying it anymore. He was hitting home runs until he hurt his shoulder, then he stopped.
He had 3 pre-May 1st and 3 post-May 1st, when he injured it.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 22, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Stupid Upton had to get hurt before we had anything resembling a decent sample size.
How rude.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 22, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
He hurts the team all the time by being lazy
His favorite stat to pad is walks so he doesn’t have to run or hustle to first.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 22, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
My analysis has absolutely nothing to do with stats and everything to do with speculation
If he’s not going to act like he’s hurt, I’m not going to use stats to try to prove that he is.
What I mean
He’s not acting like he’s hurt. He’s not complaining about his shoulder, he’s not missing games, he’s not asking to go on the DL or for time off. Hell, outside of his power production, he’s producing at the same (or in some cases, better levels) than last year. There’s no way for me to provide any stats to back up my opinion, so unless something absolutely blatant comes to light, I’m not going to agree with statistics that don’t re-enforce my point of view. My opinion is like I said, speculation. It’s not intelligent analysis, nor is it meant to be. It’s a gut feeling.
Just for fun though, I’ll provide some (weak) statistical evidence that might support my point: BJ is well on pace for far more doubles per hit this year than last year(last year his ratio was 1 double out of every 5.68 hits, this year it’s 1 out of every 4.7 so far) and that could be a sign that some of those hits that were homers last year are only doubles this year because he’s still got wheels, but he’s not getting that extra 20 feet on some of those hits to clear the outfield wall.
Make sense?
I'm not ignoring your point here
But that doubles rate is interesting to me and without reviewing each double I’m curious how many were of the power variety and how many of the speed.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 22, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
His spray chart shows 9 doubles at the Trop
With almost all at the wall/track.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 22, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
That makes more sense, thanks.
I think the sample size is way too small to tell us anything significant.
But I will offer this counter-point: baseball has an undeniable “macho” culture (not unlike nearly every other sport) where players praised for playing through pain and lambasting for succumbing to it (see: Erik Bedard recently, or JD Drew historically). There is incentive to play through pain, even if it means a drop in production.
If a player has demonstrated a certain ability, gets hurt, and then has that fundamental ability change upon returning from his injury, it is a very valid question to wonder whether the injury is still effecting him. Regardless of whether he says it is or isn’t.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 22, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes sense
But I think it is more likely that the injury has caused him to adjust his swing (which is causing the problems) than the injury still hurting him.
Also...
The fact that he is hitting a respectable number of grounders to the left side can be a bit misleading. Many of those grounders could be a result of him being fooled and being way out in front of pitch and simple rolling it over. It does not mean he is pulling the ball with any type of authority. He needs to be driving the ball to the gaps.
Pulling grounders is definitely not the same as pulling fly balls.
Take a look at the shift put on David Ortiz, for example: the infield plays him to pull, but the outfield does not.
When talking about whether or not Upton is pulling the ball, I am referring almost exclusively to fly balls and line drives.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 22, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Correct
I was just commenting on the 32.4 percent of ground balls hit to the left.
Another thought..
His blind spot in the inner part of the plate could also have something to do with his inability to drive the ball to the left of dead center
I can't find the game he was injured in last year
I think it was shortly before he went on the DL with his hamstring injury which wouldn’t make it all to significant since he got a few weeks to rest up.
It doesn't make sense that he only has 9 doubles.
and according to that hit shot, he only has 1 or 2 infield singles…is that possible?
9 = 8
Peter why do you you hate Baby Jesus?
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
Black Jesus*
Baby implies he isn’t a bad, bad man.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 22, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Black Jesus is just being redundant
Cue Ole’ Crazy Eye Scott for a nice helping of department of redundancy department. B.J. I hate ESPN.
On a side note I just realize Bossman Jr. could just as easily be Badman Jesus.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 22, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Badman
No way would Beej have been able to fight the joker with that bum shoulder.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 22, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
BJ could stomp all over the Joker
Literally. It’s not hard to get stomped on when you’re covered in dirt.
I have never been above the tasteless joke
And he deserves it for “A knight’s Tale.”
I haven’t seen the movie yet, and was hoping for 95 minutes of dead Heath Ledger jokes. I’ve been told that I’m going to be disappointed because he turned in an outstanding performance.
I’ve also said in the past that Street Fighter was so bad that it killed Raul Julia.
Thats pretty rough broseph
Karma and all.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 22, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see it being an injury issue because his power really wasn't sapped for a month+
I think it’s mechanical.
I somewhat agree
The most striking evidence are the homerun charts and the groundball rate. If he is hitting the ball to dead center at a greater rate (which it does appear he is doing by just watching games) then it makes sense that a lot less balls are leaving the park.
Not until hitfx comes out
I tried seeing if he was struggling on pitches going 94+ and didn’t really see any indication he was.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 22, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
OT: I think Reggie willits would be a good addition if we can somehow pry him out of LAA without giving up too much.
He’s a switch hitter that has a good tract record against lefties, sees a ton of pitches, walks a bunch, barely strikes out, has speed, and for some reason he never plays….
maybe we can get him on the cheap because LAA has him in exile?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7742/splits;_ylt=ApsZdzt_G9Ifs4ole8lufruFCLcF?year=career&type=Batting” target=”new”>
9 = 8
another hackneyed theory
BJ’s plate discipline has obviously improved. He’s swinging less often both at balls and strikes, but especially balls. To do that, maybe he’s waiting to swing just a bit longer, and can’t produce a similarly powerful swing to last year. Swinging later also makes it more difficult to pull the ball.
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