Why don't more of you want the Rays to trade?

by TallMatt on Jul 23, 2008 1:49 PM EDT

I realize that some of the reports out there for asking prices now are silly, but when you look at this season - why aren't more fans willing to make a serious push to trade this year and go for it this year?

I know this year is earlier than planned, and that the Rays should be competitive for years to come - but playing in the AL East makes things pretty tough. This year the Yankees don't look as good as normal (despite the recent winning streak) and the Sox have had some injury issues. This is a pretty good time to make a push.

Look at our bats right now. Gross, Aybar, Hinske, and Gomes haven't been able to hit anything...and between RF & DH they're playing 2 positions that need to be filled with big bats. I wouldn't mortgage the world for a RP (and come July 31, it's unlikely that anyone really will), but we need a bat in a bad way.

Who knows what next year will bring, we need to make a trade for a bat and go for it this year.

Good - and for the Rays, relatively expendable: Niemmen (I really spell his name differently any time I type it), Brignac, Ruggianno, and depending on who we're going for...I'd consider including Hellickson or even Wade Davis. Heck, send 4 of those guys to Pittsburgh for Bay & Marte. We'd still have the best pitching in the league in 2009/10 and they could provide a huge boost this year.

The Rays are setup to be good for a few years - but good might not cut it in the AL East. We lead the division in late July...we need to go for it now!

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Hinske is second on the team in GPA

He’s been hitting a ton.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2008 2:42 PM EDT 0 recs

Hinske WAS hitting a ton

Since the beginning of July he has 1 HR, 1 RBI, and is hitting .233.

The other huge plus if we get one more bat is that we only have to use Hinske/Gomes/Aybar, and not 2 of them in the lineup. Gross can be defensive help in RF.

If Eric picks it back up, he can continue to play. If Gomes gets hot, he can play..we don’t have to have 2 of them playing.

by TallMatt on Jul 23, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

So a mini slump? That's not a big deal to me.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

Mini-Slump?

Given his career #’s, it might be more appropriate to label it as regression to the mean.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 23, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Outside of his HR% nothing is out of line.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Heinske is third in HRs and has a solid avg

I like Heinske and Floyd, but I agree Aybar, Zobrist, Gross, and Gomes are not great and we can do better.

I see getting younger options like Murton and Street over Bay and Marte… But Bay is alot better and the Pirates want way to much.. Remember we are good a reclamation projects (IE Pena – dispite the slow year – and Heinkse)

by iceman99_Rays on Jul 23, 2008 3:06 PM EDT 0 recs

haven't there been a lot of people around here pushing for trades?

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 3:23 PM EDT 0 recs

Yes.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

People like the idea of trading

But aren’t willing to give up any of our prospects.

by TallMatt on Jul 23, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

No, we're willing

But only if the price seems right.

Davis/Hellickson aren’t both leaving this organization and a lot of us would rather not have either leave.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

i think general consensus is that anyone but Price is available

Wade Davis has been tossed around in Bay deals. Niemann and Brignac for Street, too.

The reason why there’s actually an upper limit on what we should trade away is that the return isn’t actually all that huge. Albert Pujols’ bat is worth about 6 wins above average (Floyd) over a full season. Over 1/3 of a season, that’s 2 wins. How likely is it that two wins is the difference between playoffs and not? And that’s for Pujols. Bay is barely better than half that.

One player does not make all that much difference, especially over 1/3 of a year. It’s not worth givng up David Price, who’s skill and cost will be worth 2-3 wins above average to the team for the next six years. The loss of playoff odds those next six years is not worth the small gain this year.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

don't get me wrong

I don’t think I’d trade Price for Pujols, let alone anyone else. I also wouldn’t trade both Hellickson and Davis..but I’d trade one of them.

I hope Andrew agrees with the logic that anyone buy Price is available.

The other thing is that those stats about how many wins a guy is worth are based on a large sample – over a small sample they is likely to be much more of an effect – not that it’s guaranteed to be a positive effect, but a guy like Bay could certainly be worth more than 1 win the rest of the year. Could be worth less too…and he’d also be around for 2009.

Of course, if we could trade 2008 CC for any previous version, that would be quite nice as well.

by TallMatt on Jul 23, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

NONONONONONONO AT THE BODY

Good – and for the Rays, relatively expendable: Niemmen (I really spell his name differently any time I type it), Brignac, Ruggianno, and depending on who we’re going for…I’d consider including Hellickson or even Wade Davis. Heck, send 4 of those guys to Pittsburgh for Bay & Marte. We’d still have the best pitching in the league in 2009/10 and they could provide a huge boost this year.

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 23, 2008 3:26 PM EDT 0 recs

if the rays trade wade davis they will regret it

i would also be sad seeing him be traded since i think he is going to be our #5 pitcher sometime next year and having him go against other teams #5 starters

by RaysOfHope on Jul 24, 2008 12:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

The Rays won't trade any of their top guys for rentals.

Anyone who thinks they will hasn’t been paying attention.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 24, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

i know that just repeating how much he love our prospects around here

by RaysOfHope on Jul 25, 2008 1:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

The problem isn't...

Hinske, Gross, Gomes, Aybar, or Floyd. Those players aren’t great and weren’t supposed to be great. Sure with some of them you can argue that they aren’t doing what they are “supposed” to be doing, but they weren’t supposed to do much to begin with.

The problem is with the heart of the order, especially against lefties.

CC and Upton are both playing horribly right now. CC has had a bad year all the way around and Upton has been sucking the past few months.

Longoria, Pena, and Aki all do not hit lefties that well.

So against lefties our #1-#5 hitters are basically nonexistent. Sure one of them may have a good game here and there, but you cannot generate runs with so many hitters in a row not producing.

We are goign to continue to struggle unless we can get a bat to put near the top of the order (especially against lefties). And frankly that isn’t going to happen. All the viable trades are players that will be an upgrade to Gross/Gomes/Hinske/Floyd/Aybar, but nobody that would truly solve the top of the order woes.

What we need:

1. Upton to get out of his funk and start pounding the ball again. Plus he needs to be smarter on the bases
2. Pena to be 90 percent of last year
3. CC to hit his career numbers
4. Longoria to continue to progress, especially against lefties

by matthan on Jul 23, 2008 4:23 PM EDT 0 recs

Bay and Nady are both top of the order hitters

And both hit lefties very well.

I agree that Hinske/Gomes/Aybar/Floyd weren’t supposed to be great – but they playing RF & DH every day. Those are positions that you need bats, especially if you’re going to compete with the Yankees and RedSox.

by TallMatt on Jul 23, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pena at 90% of last year

is a pipe dream, and it always has been. I think 75% – 80% is a reasonable expectation, but I don’t think anyone can seriously believe that last year was Pena’s true baseline level.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jul 24, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Nady

We need to stop considering Nady a top of the line hitter. He is essentially Ty Wigginton with the bat, but is having an uncharacteristic year that makes him seem better. Therefore the asking price is almost certainly way out of line with his true value. Sure if he is available for some lesser talent he is worth a gamble (there is about a 50-50 chance that Gomes would hit better than Nady the rest of the way).

As for Bay, he is a terrific hitter, but my understanding is that he could not play right field. I will defer to those who have the data here, but from what I have read, he has a weak arm and his fielding in LF has declined precipitously. So either we accept a seriously sub-par right fielder as a regular or use him as a DH and occasional left fielder.

In any case, the price for him is almost surely very high-legitimately so-and there is quite a bit of research that suggests these kind of pickups rarely (although occasionally they do) have much impact on division races. If the odds of a pickup significantly helping a team win the division or wild card are small, why the anguish over inactivity in that arena? It mirrors the off-season squawking when a team won’t grant multi-year, big money deals to middle relievers.

We need to avoid the temptation to equate frantic activity and headline grabbing with actual successful team-building.

by bobr on Jul 23, 2008 5:37 PM EDT 1 recs

Well said...

The fact that a team doesn’t make deadline deals isn’t a sign of a front office giving up. To me, it’s a sign that the front office did a good enough job last off-season that they don’t have to worry about filling holes.

I still think the biggest hole on this team is another quality reliever. One bat isn’t going to turn this offense into some great juggernaut. Instead I’d rather they spend less and help keep games closer.

by tallyray on Jul 23, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree on Nady (although he's a bit better than Wigginton)

but I think Bay is real. RF really isn’t more difficult than LF, although I’ve read the same reports you have. I’m going to need more explanation before I believe that BS. According to John Walsh’s arm ratings at the Hardball Times, Nady’s arm is the bad one and Bay’s is league-average.

No wonder Huntington wants to trade Nady. He’s a smart guy. The Yankees will fall for it, no doubt.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Why trade Bay?

This doesn’t relate to anything you said, but why would the Pirates trade Bay? They have him at a great rate next year and he will probably be quite desirable next year as well. A trade of Bay today means the Pirates have given up on next year and I don’t see why they’d admit that.

by tallyray on Jul 23, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

i agree that the market doesn't value the extra year of Bay quite enough

which makes keeping him until next July not a bad idea. but Huntingon knows the Pirates can’t compete next year, so if there’s an offer on the table that helps his team from 2010 onwards, he should go for it.

you could use the same logic for Nady, except that Nady is a sell-high candidate.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 24, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

The Yankees may well do so.

But the acquisition would be for his bat. This season he would likely play more LF and 1B than RF, might even DH if Damon can play the OF again soon. That could be a defensive problem with the Yanks large LF. And remember, arms are measured relative to their OF position – and RF is more demanding. His might play better in LF.

Plus I wonder if other factors come into play here. Losing teams might be more conservative on the basepaths, winning teams less so, especially against teams with weak pitching where you figure you’ll get more chances if the running chance doesn’t work. Detriment to Pitt, but it’s a theory not a stat.

The advantage of Nady is the lower cost in dollars this year and next and the reduced demand on prospects in trade. Plus Nady’s positional profile (RF & 1B) suits the Yanks next year better than the other very discussed OF trade candidates. The current hitch for the Yanks is whether Posada or Matsui will be able to effectively DH this season. And I don’t see Richie Sexson as blocking anyone.

The question of “falling for it” comes down to cost. Frankly, I don’t see the Pirates brass as any smarter than the Yanks. Just significantly different agendas. Yanks’ prospect depth is in pitching, where Pitt is desperate. Fill holes by dealing from strength, no?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 23, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Huntington is going to turn the Pirates into the NL's Indians

I have no proof for you, but they’re an organization to keep an eye on.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 24, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

They need pitching in the worst way.

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 24, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Have to respectfully disagree Bob

Nady is no Ty Wigginton – showing more power in a park that suppresses RH power compared to one that encourages. Huge BA difference, and Nady plays more regularly.

I will agree the asking price is out of line, but that’s what a good year gets you. And I’m sorry, but I can’t agree the chance Gomes approximates Nady numbers is 50-50. Gomes’ stat track is showing a bad trend, Nady the opposite. Now Nady’s flaw is Gomes strength, the BB. So that evens things on the OBP side. But Nady’s Home / Road splits say quite a bit to me – +.160 OPS on the road.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 23, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Look at their numbers

in 2006-2007. They are eerily similar. Note the OPS+ in particular. The BAs are virtually identical by the way.This is the first year that Nady has a clear advantage. And until this year, Ty played more regularly.

The park may make some difference, but when you neutralize their stats, the comparison holds up.

by bobr on Jul 23, 2008 8:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think people are squawking for activity on here

because they are fans of the team and want to see us win the world series. Will a move put us in that position? Who knows, but is undeniable that we can improve as a whole – which is why Friedman is working overtime to make something happen. Personally, I trust our front office and will be fine either way, but completely understand why fans (especially our fans who are finally experiencing success) are calling for a move.

Johnny let his baby brother sleep, through the back door and baseball, all the kids are waiting outside, Old days come and go too soon Old friends, heroes, lifetimes. Don't let a single memory fade away

by LeftRight on Jul 23, 2008 9:03 PM EDT up 0 recs