2007 Carlos Pena - Fluke?

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 25, 2008 2:25 AM EDT Comment 30 comments

I have been rather disappointed in Pena this year. Were my expectations too high based on last year? After last year's amazing performance, I thought Pena might regress somewhat, but I was not expecting this.

OPS 2002-2006 = .789

OPS 2007 = 1.037

OPS 2008 = .760

It seems to me that last year is the outlier. There is no evidence that suggests that Pena will ever play as well as he did last year. He is about as good this year as he was his entire career before last season. This year is the real Carlos Pena.

I also tend to think of Pena as a run-producer. But I anecdotally seem to notice him sucking a lot with RISP this season. To evaluate a player as a run producer I like to look at slugging percentage with men in scoring position. I know some of you may frown on this, but I think it can be useful. I want guys to drive in runs with basehits when there are RISP -- especially clean-up hitters (or #5 hitter as it may be).

SLUG W./RISP 2002-2006 = .454

SLUG W/RISP 2007 = .568

SLUG W/RISP 2008 = .524

While Pena is slugging less than he did last year with RISP he still is doing a better job than he was before 2007. I guess a lot of this is in my head.

I also anecdotally observed that Pena was constantly striking out this season in important situation. His K/AB w/RISP are as follows:

2002-2006 = .30

2007 = .34

2008 = .39

So, yes Pena is striking out more often (5-10%) with RISP then he has in years past.

So what does all this mean. I have no idea, but I tend to think that the Carlos Pena we see right now is the Carlos Pena we are going to get for the rest of the year and for 2009 and 2010.

He does play excellent defense which increases his value to the team. However, I am beginning to doubt if the contract -- which I believe was 3 yrs for 24 mil -- is going to end up being a good one for the Rays. Since the average 1B salary is 5.4 million, I would have to say that it is looking like an ok signing. Carlos has been just about league average this season and historically (except for 2007) and he is being paid 2.5 mil more per year than the average 1B salary. His exceptional defense may make up for that 2.5 million gap.

Not trying to be a Carlos hater. He is one of my favorite players. I am just trying to objectively evaluate how valuable he will be for the Rays over the next 2.5 years.

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carlos pena's bat is going to get hot and soon

carlos pena has always been a player that i have wanted the rays to get and when they got him last year i was very happy that he was getting a chance here because i was also happy that boston and new york gave up on him as well, teams kept giving up on him, what really opened my eyes about pena was when he was in oakland and just killing the ball, but striking out like crazy, but i dont think that is the pena we will see over those 2.5 years left on his deal, the man is playing with a broken finger right now as well, i think that pena is just going to start hitting like crazy soon because his power swing is one of the best in the league and when he is on watch out AL pitchers

by RaysOfHope on Jul 25, 2008 3:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fluke

by Sveet on Jul 25, 2008 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

to elaborate

I don’t think he will have another season where he even comes close to approaching the numbers he put up in ‘07

by Sveet on Jul 25, 2008 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i applaud the objective analysis, thanks

If Pena is still slugging the balls and taking walks (I think he is, didn’t look it up) in important situations, the increased K’s don’t mean much.

The play-by-play stats seems to show Pena as an average-fielding 1B.

It’s not really fair to compare Pena’s contract to that of the average first baseman, because some are paid as free agents (like Pena) while some make peanuts in their first three years (Fielder) and some are in arbitration (Tex). The question we should ask is how is Pena’s free agent contract compared to all other free agent contracts? $8MM per year divided by $4.5MM (the average cost of free agent wins these days) is 1.75. Is Pena worth 1.75 wins above replacement, which is a touch worse than league-average? Yes, but it’s not that big of a bargain.

Someone care to run his current Marcel projection?

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 25, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

.254/.363/.499 with 14 HRs the rest of the way

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 25, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would be surprised

If he OPS was .862 and if he hit 14 homeruns the rest of the way. Both of those seem a little high to me.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 25, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks!

any chance you want to do that for the rest of the team and post it in a fanpost?

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 25, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or maybe do it for our trade targets?

blake, bay, nady, murton, etc?

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 25, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's working on that, actually.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 25, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

awesome!

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 25, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll have all the pitchers up by Gametime As a matter of fact

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 25, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense?

I know next to nothing about defensive stats. However, I am surprised that the stats indicate him to be only a middle of the pack fielder. Do these types of stats take into account not only out of zone plays on grounders and pop-ups, but also excellent plays on throws from other infielders? I think a major aspect of defensive quality at first-base is the ability to pick short/long hops and move off the bag and get errant throws. From my own anecdotal observation Carlos seems excellent at this. Perhaps that isn’t accounted for in those stats?

Excellent point about free agent value versus average first baseman value. You make a valid point. I guess Pena’s contract isn’t too bad. Maybe I am just use to this Rays Front office having such team friendly contracts that it makes it seem like a not so good of a contract.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 25, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...He appears to be above average to me...Visually

by td32 on Jul 25, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

correct, most stats do not include "scooping ability"

Sean Smith (who also predicted an 89 win Rays team this year, has done some work in the area: http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2008/02/first-basemen-and-saving-errors.html

Pena comes out at +3 runs per 1000 throws. (Interesting note on the overall results—tall 1Bs rate well, which could be because they provide larger targets and infielder will hit the ground with throws less often. Richie Sexson rates well here.)

as for Carlos’ contract, even if it’s fair or slightly beneficial as a free agent contract, the Rays certainly don’t need that much money locked up in a player who isn’t a deal. in that sense, it’s not great for them.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 25, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

.760 seems low

but last year was a fluke, no matter how you want to cut it. He’s more of a .800 – .900 OPS guy, but that’s perfectly reasonable production for what we’re paying him.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jul 25, 2008 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably

His true talent level is probably somewhere in between. You have to remember that he was a big prospect when he first came up with Texas. Sometimes it takes these guys a little while to put it together, just look at Phil Nevin, Ryan Ludwick, Brandon Phillips, Bret Boone etc.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 25, 2008 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I love slipping Ludwick in there.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 25, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is a prime example.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 25, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You had that ready to go.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 25, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i just cant see pena not doing well

i believe he has one of the prettiest swings in baseball. He just needs to stop lowering his shoulder to try and hit those mammoth homeruns all the time and just swing level.

by Jombari on Jul 25, 2008 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Problem solved.

by Peter Bendix on Jul 25, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you've had your eyes closed all season then

by Sveet on Jul 25, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If by prettiest he meant “most absurd uppercut” and “best at missing balls by more than one foot” then I agree whole heartedly.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 25, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I LOVED HOW EVAN FOUGHT OFF PITCH AFTER PITCH TO GET ON LAST NIGHT

ONLY TO HAVE PENA FOLLOW HIM WITH A POP OUT AFTER JUST A FEW PITCHES. THE POP OUTS IN CRITICAL SITUATIONS ARE GETTING OLD.

by rayweaver on Jul 25, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HOW ABOUT THAT HR IN A CRITICAL SITUATION

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 26, 2008 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bingo

He needs to stop trying to hit a bomb every time. If he just stays relaxed and just does what he can with the pitch at hand he will do fine.

by matthan on Jul 26, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overrated duhn... duhn... duhn duhn duhn

now trade for milton bradley

The Eagle has landed....

by Lonerangers on Jul 25, 2008 8:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

.....Why didn't we just keep Elijah, then

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 26, 2008 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

i hope your not seriously considering putting Elijah Dukes and Milton Bradley in the same class.

The Eagle has landed....

by Lonerangers on Jul 28, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

because that dude is crazy and would probably have killed someone on our team by now

and probably knocked up 2 girls and chocked out joe maddon for maddon telling him 9=8 and elijah takeing it as he thinks he is stupid and doesnt know math and he might be arrested and saying that the rays told him that he has the green light to steal so he shoplifts until he gets caught and blames it on joe maddon again.

by RaysOfHope on Jul 26, 2008 2:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs