Projecting With Marcel: Pitchers

by P Brady on Jul 25, 2008 4:33 PM EDT in Features & Analysis

Using this This Awesome Tool Via THT I'll run down what the current pitchers and hitters of the Rays will be projected to do the rest of the season. A few things about Marcel first; Its not perfect. First of all, when you see ERA its actually FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching) so bump it up a bit since we have a very good Defense. Secondly, It only takes account of the last four seasons in terms of IP and performance, and Minor League Stats are not taken account of for obvious reasons. So expect players with short track records to lean heavily on their 1^st/2^nd year.

First: Mr. Al Reyes(These are done in random order btw)

Year	G	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	20	17.2	4.58	15	8	1.19
Rest	13	11	4.24	9	4	1.28
Total	33	28.2	4.45	24	12	1.22

Not completely awful. Obviously an improvement over his first half numbers, but he still shouldn't sniff a close game with a lead. Solid K/BB ratio and WHIP.

Now for Mr. Dan Wheeler

Year	G	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	42	42.1	2.34	27	14	0.94
Rest	27	27	3.94	21	9	1.16
Total	69	69.1	2.96	48	23	1.03

Oh jeez Boys and Girls, this isn't going to be the same wheels is it? His ERA is primed to gain 1.60(!) points to almost 4. Not terrible, but not a SU man. He should become a 7^th inning guy in the 2^nd half if these are on target.

Trever Miller, LOOGY at your service:

Year	G	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	42	25	4.32	19	14	1.44
Rest	27	16	4.21	12	7	1.39
Total	69	31	4.28	31	21	1.42

We knew Trever Miller was not a great reliever, but this unacceptable. A 3:2 K/BB? These numbers suggest we should be looking at a LH Reliever or considering bringing up Mr. Kurt Birkins from AAA.

Shieldsy is up next:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	20	20	129.1	3.69	104	24	1.14
Rest	13	13	82	3.64	66	19	1.18
Total	33	33	209.1	3.67	170	43	1.15

This is why we call Shields a second ace, folks. His ERA should hover about where its as while his excellent K:BB merely goes to Very good. He should log 210 IP+ depending on playoffs, but I wouldn't be worried about it with his efficiency and motion. A very good year for Shieldsy if this stays the course.

Edwin Jackson:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	19	19	114.1	4.25	66	49	1.42
Rest	12	12	72	4.32	49	31	1.44
Total	31	31	186.1	4.28	115	80	1.43

What you see is what you get with Edwin. He should stay the course regressing the tiniest of bits. Decent #5 until price takes over for those last 5-7 starts.

Kid K:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	15	15	90	2.80	100	35	1.14
Rest	9	9	53	3.24	54	20	1.23
Total	24	24	143	2.96	154	55	1.18

This is a definite stepping stone year for Scott Kazmir, where he improved his control and retained dominance. If his arm holds up next year, he should be a serious Cy Young contender.

The Vulture Himself: JP HOWELL!

Year	G	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	39	60	2.55	59	27	1.10
Rest	23	35	3.85	29	13	1.28
Total	52	95	3.03	88	40	1.17

I wouldn't take a lot of stock in these numbers. This assumes his numbers are related to 2007 and 2006 numbers, and with the change to Reliever, they aren't.

THIS.IS.GARZA:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	19	19	115	3.83	75	37	1.25
Rest	11	11	68	3.93	49	23	1.31
Total	30	30	183	3.87	124	60	1.27

I'd call this a successful year for Garza considering age and early year troubles. That Delmon deal sure does look good. 2:1 K/BB is nice, and I don't agree with the notion that Garza will decline, but the totals should make anyone happy.

Sonny:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	20	20	121	4.54	74	21	1.34
Rest	12	12	72	3.77	50	17	1.32
Total	32	32	193	4.25	124	38	1.33

Its encouraging to see that Sonny is projected to do almost as well as Shields and better than Garza. Sonny has been the most underrated pitcher on the staff, primed to go 190 Innings at a little better than the average #4 starter. Good K:BB, decent WHIP are staples for Sonny.

The Bear Wrestler AKA Troy Percival:

Year	G	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	31	29.2	3.33	31	12	0.98
Rest	18	18	4.19	14	6	1.21
Total	49	47.2	3.63	45	18	47

I'd take that year from percy, but those 2^nd half numbers do worry me. Certainly serviceable, but not the closer that he usually provides. We'd be lucky if his arm doesn't fall off in the playoffs.

Last and Least, Gary Glover

Year	G	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	29	34	5.82	22	18	1.76
Rest	17	20	4.43	15	8	1.60
Total	46	54	5.31	37	26	1.71

No moar Glover plz

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Comments

Interesting post

and I will be happy with how Garza finishes. I hope him and Shields can get it together for a couple road starts.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Jul 25, 2008 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

I guess you might say

that the Wheels might fall off in the second half.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jul 25, 2008 4:40 PM EDT reply actions

Zing!

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 25, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Shields owns so hard.

If this holds up he’ll have a 3.95 K/BB ratio, Sonny for instance has a 3.26. Right now Shields is at 4.63, right ahead of Beckett and right behind Haren.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 25, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions

Percy should no longer be our closer, he's a liability in that capacity at this point

Balfour or Howell or Salas or someone else need to be slotted in, or a trade made, b/c all of these “making it interesting” outings are really going to catch up to us with a vengance very soon.

by davidsmarch on Jul 25, 2008 4:44 PM EDT reply actions

Balfour plz. He had a too small Sample Size to have accurate Numbers in the projection, but he should be good.

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 25, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Ugh.

I vehemently oppose moving Percy out of the closer spot until he actually costs us some games. It doesn’t matter whether he’s giving us heart attacks in the 7th or in the 9th, and if he gets moved, it undermines the veteran influence he’s giving to the young pitchers.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jul 25, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

the influence is a presence, an accountability factor,

it has nothing to do with where he pitches out of the bullpen.

by davidsmarch on Jul 25, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

some observations (and a big thanks to Mr. Pie)

The guys in the bullpen aren’t all that hot—projected ERAs in the high 3.00’s and low 4.00 are mediocre when you consider replacement level for relievers is 4.75.

The starters rule. And Sonnanstine is a great #4 going forward. EJax is definitely the #5.

JP gets screwed a little by Marcel because it doesn’t recognize that prior years’ ERAs came as a starter. Moving to the bullpen cuts a full run off a pitcher’s ERA, on average.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 26, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

lol

Sonny is not our 4th best starter

I dont know where some of you go off thinking Jackson is our #5 and the first to go. He has been more consistent than Sonny, and his overall numbers are better. Edwin Jackson just defeats the SABR eye test. It’s impossible for many of you to wrap your minds around his continued success. Oh now he has an awful K:BB rate! GASP! He doesnt strike out many guys, the league is bound to catch up to him. Watch him pitch and analyze what HE DOES, stop comparing him to the rest of the league it is unfair to him. You cant compare his numbers to others who have similar K:BB rates because JAckson is much less hittable than 90% of pitcyhers who share his stats.

Jackson doesnt get hit hard, and he has such a better foundation tp grow as a starter than Sonny does. He has so much more to build off of. And he is doing so. He gives up a HR and shake sit off and strikes the next guy out. He gets 2 runnners on base, he quickly pitches out of it. Nobody seems to put the sweet spot on the ball against him.

This is getting so tiring

by blazinrayz on Jul 26, 2008 10:45 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah saber nerds are screwed up man

It’s almost like they looked here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2008&month=0

And saw that the pitchers with awful K/BB ratios usually sucked as pitchers.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 26, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions

K: BB is vastly overrated

if placed into the wrong hands

Sonny v Jackson is the perfect example. SABR nerds cling onto the K:BB rate everytime they defend Sonny

Sonny’s K:BB crushes Jacksons, which is why they are the perfect examples of why it is such an unreliable tool when used by itself

Sonny doesnt walk guys, yet his K:BB rate doesnt show you how wild he is within the strikezone. His K:BB rate would also indicate that since he strikes out so many guys compared to how many he walks, that he is difficult to make contact against. Couldnt be further from the truth.

Sonny is very hittable, and wild within the strikezone. The purpose of the K:BB rate is to show these types of thinigs, but in Sonnys case his K:BB rate shows just the opposite

Jackson on the other hand appears to be very wild, which is mostly true, and not very overpowering or challenging to hitters. Yet his ability to not give up many hits, or hard hits, makes his BB rates far more tolerable. And the fact that he pitches to contact and doesnt rack up Ks shows nothing of how frequently hitters make good swings against him. Jackson pitches to contact, and it is not a problem that he doesnt get many Ks. Just like how Garza has some games where he has zero Ks, it doesnt show how good his stuff really is

by blazinrayz on Jul 26, 2008 10:54 PM EDT reply actions