Bay trade idea
by Schnoah on Jul 30, 2008 1:57 PM EDT
110 comments
ok... i know the talks are going to be getting very serious over the next 25 hours or so...
I will admit i am a diehard Pirates fan and i want to know if you think this deal would be fair and if not i want to know your trade ideas, i would like to throw ideas back and forth. (also keep in mind, we are hearing the Pirates are holding out for Davis)
So here is my trade idea...
Bay and Grabow to the Rays for Davis, Brignac, Jaso, Talbot.
The thinking behind this, You get Bay who is just a stud (07 was just an injury year) and Grabow who gives you another very solid bullpen arm or can use him as a LOOGY.
Pirates get Davis for the future rotation, Brignac who for 2 years is only been slightly above average looking at his stats, Jaso could be an up and coming catcher and Talbot could be a good back end of the rotation type starter. (Jaso and Talbot) will be 25 soon. So i look forward to your thoughts
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We're offering a package centered around Fernando Perez
You’re trade offer is irrelevant.
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
really?
That name has not been even mentioned, and we have no need for more OF prospects… Pearce just called up, but OF is the position we have the most depth at.
if that so
Then its no wonder that there is no trade… Your going to have to up the offer on that… No way do the Pirates give up a deal centered around Perez… seriously he isnt that good. He has over 120K’s this year already. So def. wont happen if thats the case… sorry
That report has got to be FOSH
Seriously. Perez might be an ancillary piece, not the centerpiece.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Seriously
I don’t think they need 2 Nyjer Morgan’s on the same team
by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 30, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
BP
so you know they are the ones that said the main piece of the deal was Kennedy for the Marte/Nady trade… so they have missed on our trades all year so i would not hold much water with their rumor section
BTW, on the trade idea
I think most people would say you have a deal if you substitute Davis with Niemann or Jackson.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
question on Davis
I know he is a big time prospect… but the word around Pitt is that he is the one name they are holding out for. The 2 names that they said they would have to have back is Davis and Brignac… but i have heard names that they like for the rest of the deal was Jaso, Niemann, Talbot, Hellickson and Barnese…
other teams involved?
i feel like the only way the pirates will get both davis and brignac back in a trade would be if another team got involved in the trade talks and upped the price on bay. maybe if st. louis is serious in their discussions with the pirates the rays would through caution to the wind knowing they have to make a deal to stay competitive
the rays would through caution to the wind knowing they have to make a deal to stay competitive
I don’t think you know our front office very well.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
front office
well i know your front office is probably 10 times more competent than ours, so if the deal does get pulled off, we’ll almost certainly get the worst of it.
Wade Davis is too much by himself
I hate the idea of trading away pitching. Look what happened when we fleeced the Twins by taking Garza and Bartlett.
www.citadel-insurance.com
Im not sold that Davis will be better than Niemann
I dont think they are far from eachother. Davis hasn’t faced as much adversity, and he definitely has a slight leg up on Niemann but Davis’ numbers in AA were about identical to Niemann’s numbers in AAA last year. Davis was lights out in single A. Niemann was lights out in college. Niemann has had shoulder problems that have delayed his rise through the minors, and also appear to have taken something off his fastball but even still from the reports Ive heard his fastball is low to mid 90s right there with Davis and both guys throw 3-4 pitches well. I think they both have similar ceilings, but since Davis has faced less adversity and thrown less innings he is the chosen one, so to speak
Brignac is not needed by this franchise, and quite frankly he hasnt wowed anyone since high A ball. He’s still a nice SS prospect whos name has been circulating for a couple years so Im sure we we will get good value for him
I personally like the idea you had with Bay and Grabow for Davis, Brignac, Jaso and Talbot. Don’t listen to the douche bags around here. It might not be enough from the Pirates side, but still it’s a fun idea to play around with. Between the 4 of them, they all have serious question marks aside from Davis, and considering we would still be overstocked with young quality arms (Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson, Soonny, Price, Niemann, Hellickson, McGee) I’m not sure why it is such a bad idea to gain exactly what we need- a RH power bat who plays RF, and also a quality LH reliever
No trade for Bay will be centered around Fernando Perez, Im not sure if that was a joke or not
not enough from the Pirates side??
are you serious? you really think that a package of Davis, Brignac, Jaso, and Talbot isn’t enough? IMO that’s actually way way too much to give up for those guys. i would be so pissed if that deal with down.
not enough from the PIrates side
as in, the PIrates would need to add more to the deal. Sorry if I was unclear
Niemman will never pitch more than 175 innings in a year.
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
Oh and he's overrated and inconsistent. LETS SAY RETARDD THINGS WE KNOW NOTHING ABOUT OMGZ.
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
what leads you to believe that?
his injury history? that shouldn’t hold him back if it’s in the past. he threw 130+ last year, and is on pace to 20%+ on that this year. he’s improved his numbers across the board, i see no reason why he can’t be a #2/3 guy soon, and throw ~200ip a year (though probably not his first year up)
6'7'' and he has a hitch in his motion. Plus he was a rice pitcher and has already been on the DL this year.
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
I agree, but
Niemann has the injury risk.
At his best, Niemann was certainly a better prospect than Davis was at his best, but he went downhill almost the day he signed. I’d still contend that Niemann’s best pitch (his curve) is a better pitch than Davis’ best pitch (his fastball), although Niemann doesn’t throw his curve a ton still.
Healthy Niemann has done quite well in Durham this year, which is an environment that’s tough on right-handed pitching.
Did Niemann shrink a couple inches? He’s always been 6’9”, when did he suddenly become 6’7”?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
However
I don’t agree that a Davis/Brignac/Talbot/Jaso package is enough. If the Rays offered that package, Pittsburgh brass would be besides themselves. That’s comparable to what the A’s got for Danny Haren.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Yes
I missed a word somewhere there. That’s way too much. Honestly, the only reason Niemann wouldn’t be too much is because he’s out of options and we don’t have room for him next year. Otherwise, he’d be too much too.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Please Please Please
Don’t trade Davis for Jason Bay. Justin Ruggiano is nearly as good as Jason Bay. Yeah, I said it.
Stop putting on homer glasses plz
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
EqA?
What is this? and is that in the MLB rankings?
Baseball Prospectus stat
League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB).
He’s also got a higher GPA than Longoria (1.8OBP)+SLG/4
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
so...
Your saying you really want Bay in your lineup?
so my deal would work?
Davis/Brignac/Talbot/Jaso
For the Pirates
probably too much on our end. Back to what I said originally. Sub Davis for Edwin Jackson (believe it or not, he’s a 100 ERA+ starter in the majors this year) or Jeff Niemann (ERA around 3 in AAA) and you’ve got a deal.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
a new thing i just read
A deal structure is close to being complete… Brignac and Hellickson are the 2 main names…
here
3:57 PM. The frame work of the deal is close. The hold up is Neimann. Pirates still targeting him. Other teams are in discussions. The offers for Bay are not insulting. A lot of insiders feel the Pirates should settle and take the Rays offer of Hellickson and Brignac as the center pieces if they don’t include Neimann.
Yanks Make another trade
They just got Pudge for Kyle Farnsworth…
This puts even more pressure on your Front Office… If my team is any good we should be able to squeeze some more from you now
Except not really
He’s still a plus defender with a .750 OPS at catcher. the Yanks are replacing a Molina brother with Dioner Navarro.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Actually replacing Chad Moeller.
Jose can be adequate 2-3 times per week, keeping both he and Pudge fresh.
The fact is Pitt doesn’t need to do this deal, so you guys aren’t going to just steal him. I know NYY fans have a tendency to overrate their prospects, but it appears to be a disease that’s contagious in the AL East. When players reach the top levels of the minors performance starts to weigh equal to or more than “upside”. There has been some slippage at that end with some of your guys mentioned in this deal. And the fact is Davis, Brignac, Jaso, and Talbot very well might not have spots with the Rays in 2009, let alone now. For 2 major leaguers of deep experience and overall good numbers, one a past All Star.
I can understand you not wanting the deal, but Pitt can afford to drive a hard bargain here- they don’t need to make this deal.
And a deal for Bay centered on Perez is laughable – don’t care if it came from BP. Pitt has a much better prospect for Perez’s highest value spot ready to plug in at AAA in McCutchen. Now it is Pitt we’re talking, but it isn’t Littlefield.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 30, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
"I know NYY fans have a tendency to overrate their prospects, but it appears to be a disease that’s contagious in the AL East."
Come on man, I think the reported Rays offer is much better than the value the PIrates got for Nady/Marte. Jackson, Sonny, Niemann, Hellickson, Davis—any one of them would be top 3 in the Pirates rotation. Add in a semi highly touted SS prospect and you really think that Pitt wouldnt be thrilled? Pitt doesnt have to trade Bay, but as you can see Andrew Friedman is more than willing to hold on to his prized prospects. The trade makes a ton of sense, and should get done. The Pirates won’t be able to squeeze anymore out of the deal due to the Pudge to the Yankees trade. Honestly, they should be pretty damn happy if they get Hellickson, Niemann or Davis along with Brignac
No way the Rays deal Hellickson, NIemann, and Brignac
That is 2 guys that could start for your club right now, and one that can start in the very near future. And by start, 2 quality SP….I think a Niemann, Brignac, and one mid level prospect is more then enough…
Which 2 would start for Pitt now?
Niemann yes. Brignac doesn’t start over Wilson, and Hellickson just hit AA. Those 2 plus one somebody don’t get it done. You’re just overvaluing your guys compared to the Pirates. Neither is a rental. And even assuming you’re just talking about Bay, you’re short.
Price isn’t going anywhere. But likely Pitt will hold out for 1 of either Davis or Hellickson. This is a top OF who’s signed for a very reasonable salary for next season. If you pull it off without either, hell of a deal.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 30, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Brignac would start over Brian BIxler and allow the Pirates to trade Jack Wilson like they should.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Has it occurred to anyone here
that the Pirates might be trying to put together a team that might be competitive in the nearer rather than farther term. Thus their desire for pitching very close to majors ready. Trading Bay opens a void in their OF that Pearce would have to fill – he’s filling in for Nady now, but Bay, McLouth, and McCutchen is the more likely alignment if all are kept. 3B is their real position hole – this deal doesn’t address that. They’ve got 4 young starters who had stints of majors success – 2 are having disastrous seasons after good ‘07s.
Why “should” the Pirates trade Wilson? They’ve got a not unreasonable option on him through 2010. Did Brignac appear ready to play in the majors in his brief stint this season? I agree he’s better than Bixler, but I’m not convinced he’s ready to perform at the majors level yet. He’s improved his D, but his bat has slipped in each of the past 2 years – he’s not necessarily a Top 50 prospect any longer , though he’s still very young for his level. Brignac could allow them to trade for one of the Dodgers young 3B’s using Wilson – if LA agrees. And assuming Brignac pans out.
It comes down to how soon the Pirates want to compete. I agree they’re likely a ways off – but is that their assessment?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 30, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Jayson Stark
But if the Pirates keep asking for David Price, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson - three of the most highly regarded pitchers in any team’s system - this is going to be a conversation leading, well, nowhere.
I know Price is no way… but we gotta get at least one of them included in a deal… especially for one of the best LF in the game
and yes
Bay is def. worth Davis or Hellickson, and i believe we get at least one of them
Believe what you must, Friedman will not budge.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
well
If we dont get one of the 3 then you dont get a deal… and will more than likely lose out to the hot Yanks and Red Sox… Not saying it as a smart a@% but Bay equals division championship… you guys have not had the offense over the last weeks that you need… Bay is just want your team needs
Bay would be a great addition
But one man will not make the difference between us sitting at home and playing in October. Sorry guy, that’s not how this team thinks or operates. We very well may lose out to the Yanks/Sox, but whether we do or don’t this team is built and has won based on its defense and pitching.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
and while thats great… you cant be blind to the fact that baseball gurantees you nothing… you may be good this year and could be crappy next year (Look at Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny) both had great seasons last year, and not good at all this year… Bay is going to put you over the top… cause its dangerous relying only on defense and pitching… that is exactly why the Angels went and got Tex, they couldnt get over the hump with pitching and defense only
Snell has been getting unlucky as hell, Gorzy was never that good
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
Snell has been GARBAGE
He is not pitching worth anything… he is giving up a million hits and tons of HR’s
lets make a couple more things clear
Ian Snell pitched good in the NL Central last year. Not the AL East. So I wouldnt be too surprised if he was feasting on NL lineups last year. A 3.76 ERA and 1.33 WHIp is NOT lights out, and would probably look more like 4.25 and 1.40 if he were in the AL East
Gorzelanny, 3.88 ERA and 1.40 WHIP last year. Again, not that exceptional. Again, in one of the best pitchers divisions in baseball last year and in a pitchers friendly league. Probably would look like 4.50 and 1.45 in the AL East. Thats pretty much the conversion rate
So not too surprising to me. Not nearly as surprising as it would be if Kazmir, Shields, or Garza fell of the planet next year
well not to be a smartass
but we still have the best SP, defense and bullpen in the AL East. In fact, we have the best top 3 SPs in the league. Since the AS break, we have won 3 series and split 1. So I’m not sure what Rays team youve been watching but we arent exactly in panic mode
Not to mention, CC and Pena are just starting to come out of slumps and BJ Upton is also due to start s winging better. Its not like we are a bad lineup who just cant score runs, we have quality hitters not hitting right now. Thats all
If Pitt never wants to have a respectable SP rotation after spending 1st round picks on the problem year after year, than suit yourself
but we gotta get at least one of them included in a deal…
well then Id say it’s atleast 60/40 a trade wont get done. Those are 3 of the top 20 prospects in baseball, plus our best SS prospect of the past 3 years.
Face it, any one of Niemann, Sonny and Jackson would be better than almost anyone the Yankees have started this year, muchless the PIrates
Bay had a terrible year last year and has knee problems, so it’s not like we are talking about Manny Ramirez here. I dont see why we would have to trade one of the top 20 prospects in baseball, but I wouldnt be surprised/upset if we trade ONE of them. But you wont see Hellickson/Davis + Niemann/Jackson + Brignac. Thats ridiculous
Niemman/Brignac/Mason will be the final offer, I give it a 50/50 shot to get done
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
Bay doesnt have knee problems
He had knee problems in 07 and its cause he wouldnt get surgery before that season… he got the procedure done and has not felt anything in his knees… he is on record as saying he was “pissed” cause he didnt get the operation the year before
Why do you want Jaso when you have Doumit?
Not sure Jaso’s arm is good enough to stay at C anyways.
good hitting catcher
Looking at our system we dont really have any catchers in our system… he could just be a bat that could go in the deal… cause i dont think i see you guys trading all pitching… I really want Davis or Hellickson, Brignac, and then 2 pitchers… but i am seeing what you guys would be willing to offer…
also, say what you want, but Pudge going to the Yanks puts a lot more pressure on your team to make a move
also, say what you want, but Pudge going to the Yanks puts a lot more pressure on your team to make a move
It really doesn’t. You’re letting nostalgia and a big name drown out what Pudge is nowadays.
We’ve won with the second best defense and good pitching all season, nothing changes the last 60 games. Nothing. This front office will not make a move unless the marginal benefit meets or exceeds the marginal cost.
You are not dealing with a team that will make a move for some nonsensical sense of striking back or in desperation.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Bay
Something else, Bay isnt a rental… you get him for 1.5 years, he is cheaper and you could get Comp A picks for him at the end of next season
Which is why
we’d be giving up a top-50 overall prospect, a top-100 overall prospect, and a couple of other good prospects to get him. That’s about what the Braves gave up for Teixiera last year.
Asking for a top-25 overall prospect, a top-50 overall prospect and a couple of other good prospects is over the top though.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Look at Bay and Tex
The numbers are scary close, with which i believe Bay has the edge
Teixeira's numbers are slightly better offensively and I'm pretty sure he's a better defender.
The only edge Bay has is the jersey he wears.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
No
We did a thing on this.. i am trying to find it… but Bay has been better than tex
Stats
Bay has a better OBP (.376-.373)
Tex has a better OPS (132-131)
Tex has a better BA (.286 – .282)
This is whats great… Bay has put up the numbers he has in a Pitchers park and on far worse teams then Tex has
Oh lord.
The quality of teams means nothing to me whatsoever, but Teixeira’s teams haven’t been great either.
Let’s actually address the stats that matter here:
OBP: Bay
SLG: Teixiera
OPS: Teixeira
EqA: Bay
GPA: Teixeira
Avg WARP: Teixeira
Defense: Teixeira
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
teams have a TON to do with it
Bay played on a team who is always at the bottom of OBP… Tex played for teams that score tons of runs… Tex played in Texas and Atlanta both pretty good hitters parks…
Bay plays in one of the better pitchers parks in baseball… if your saying that doesn count? Look at the splits for players like Holliday, A. Gonzalez and so on…. it has a TON to do with it where you play
I didn't say parks don't affect performances
Both played on crappy teams. This isn’t a revelation, but you act like Bay will receive some performance enhancing lift by changing teams.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Teixera is a much safer option, much safer
Teixera is a SH, and when healthy he is a shoe-in for a .380 OBP 30 HR 110+ RBI and a .300 avg. Jason Bay is not that automatic, but regardless I think that RJ was trying to say we arent going to give you a better offer than what the Braves gave up to fetch Teixera last year, and thats what youre asking for
Bay is healthy
So you know… Bay is healthy… on pace for a .377 OBP 33HR 94 RBI and .284avg… so basically the same
what i mean
Look at Texas… they are always a very very good hitting team, they just never have the pitching… Pirates never had the offense before this year.
Even Atlanta… had Renteria, Jones, Jones and Tex in that lineup… Pittsburgh never really matched that
Unless you're talking about RBIs or Runs or some other useless stat this has no bearing on anything
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
wow
do you guys seriously understand how it is when you have a team that is completely garbage, and have one super star?
Say you put Pujols on a team of crap… do you think he puts up anywhere near the numbers he does? No, you pitch around him.
But i wasnt talking about just with protection, i am saying that Bay cant get as many RBI opps as Tex has had over the years when the players in front of Bay dont get on base.
Pujolsdoes play on a team thats completely garbage
And please don’t use RBIs.
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
Um, we aren't talking about RBIs or stats that encompass RBIs whatsoever.
RBIs are worthless in judging a player’s true value.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I like to use clutch stuff
Like how Bay is tied for 2nd in the NL with 11 game winning RBI’s
k. You can have a top 50 prospect, a top 75 prospect, Chris Mason, and Fernando perez.
Glad we worked this out
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
Clutch?
How many game winning RBI’s would he have had if nobody was on base? One that I know of. RBI’s are a worthless measure regardless of the situation.
www.citadel-insurance.com
Why are you even bothering to discuss the realtive statistical values of Bay and Tex?
The differences are marginal – it could vary in in a month based on their performance track. Their value in trade is based on more than performance – business factors come into play. On that measure Bay’s trade value is significantly greater than Tex’s was now. Control, retention cost, etc.
If you guys were the GM’s for your respective teams, you’d talk your way through the deadline.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 30, 2008 6:55 PM EDT reply actions
here how is this
Hellickson, Brignac, Jaso, Talbot or Niemann at the end for Bay and Grabow
No. Hellickson will not go to Pitt.
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
Manny to Marlins
If that goes down, Red Sox are said to be coming after Bay… if that does happen, watch out… cause then they get the players from the Marlins and Bay…
This could be a perfect storm for the Pirates and force the teams to bid against each other. So i guess it comes down to how much do you really want to make the playoffs
Uhhh...Thy won't offer Bucchols or WHatever. So we'll outbid them.
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
I love the "or Niemann" part.
Because those two are interchangeable.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If Boston trades Manny
Then it is a 2 team race in the AL East. So, go ahead and trade Bay to Boston. Having Bay/Ortiz back to back is nothing compared to Manny/Ortiz. And assuming we would bid against Boston for Bay is a bad idea. Friedman is more likely to slam the door in your GMs face
3 Way deal being talked about
Manny to Marlins, Bay to Boston, Hermida 3 pitching prospects to Pittsburgh
haha
seriously, thats all that is left… we are the only ones who still care… no bandwagon fans here!
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