Opinion Subject to Change by 4pm today.

by davelrogers on Jul 31, 2008 9:56 AM EDT Comment 3 comments

Typically I prefer reading the site to posting on it, but I wanted to take a look at a few things before the trade market winds down today.

If the Boston 3 way deal goes through today, I am pretty sure our front office will be much maligned for doing nothing to improve the team, while Boston and New York seem to have upgraded their respective squads (though in NY's case I don't know how effective it will be.)

I think it is wise to remember, though, that these kind of player come at a significant price. If there is one thing the Rays front office has shown us since they have taken over, it is that they are able to correctly value talent at all levels. They know what the price/value should be of these players on the trade market (Jason Bay, Nady, Tex, and Dunn), and I believe know more or less what they are willing to put on the credit card for them ( in terms of future valuable major leaguers).

So, an offer is on the table from the Rays, which is positive. The Boston deal could get in the way, which is life. If we get Bay at the right price, we will all be very happy, but we should all hope Friedman and co. resist the temptation to up the offer/payment beyond what they have valued the incoming asset at. This would be the worst case scenario even more so if it involves too much pitching.

We shouldn't be shocked if something came completely out of left field (or hopefully right field) if the Bay trade falls through, see the Wigginton deal form last year. That is the perfect example of another team overpaying for a player (Ty) that a few other teams were interested in.

There are those who think we are wasting roster spots and that we have "to much pitching" waiting to come up before 2011. They ask "Why not trade some pitching you can not have ten starters?" If one looks at the odds (I have not), we are going to have injuries in our rotation over the next 2-3 years. Players will be out for months (Kazmir early this year) while some will possibly be out for a year or two (countless numbers of pitchers with Tommy Johns). We can not assume that all of our prized minor league prospects will turn out ot be stars or even front of the rotation pitchers. I would be happy if a few of them are. I wouldn't want to trade a player from that few for a year and a half of any outfielder in the majors, and neither do the Rays.

If we look at our abundance of outfield prospects 2 years ago we are shown a perfect example of an area of strength becoming a serious deficiency. That can not happen with our pitching strength, it is even more valuable.

So in conclusion, staying level headed is imperative if we want to succeed long term, and the Rays know this.

Thoughts?

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Comments

I agree that Wigginton is an example of a surprise deal

But don’t feel that the Astros overpayed much for his services, if at all. Wiggy still doesn’t get to declare free agency till 2010. He may not have been worth much to US, given what our plans were, but utility players (with bats good enough to start) are worth every bit as much as relievers.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 31, 2008 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't have a problem with overpaying (at least a little)

We are talking about a baseball team here, not a ledger sheet or a fantasy baseball team. The uneven distribution of talent creates a situation where the market itself is inherently inefficient, and most teams are going to have to overpay if they want to fill holes in their roster. Additionally, evaluation on a strictly talent for talent basis fails to take into account externalities such as playoff chances, ticket sales, fan enthusiasm, and our national perception. For example, we got nothing close to fair value for Elijah Dukes, and I certainly won’t be shedding any tears on the issue.

If management feels we have needs to address, their decision making process shouldn’t be (and likely isn’t) ‘Did we get more talent than we gave,’ but rather ‘When accounting for the quality of prospects offered, does this deal hinder the future well-being of our franchise in such a way that we’d be better off leaving our current holes unfilled?’

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 31, 2008 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I dont think the 'stros overrpaid either

Wheeler’s value is higher now than it was 1 year ago. His final 125 innings in Houston he had an ERA above 5. Wigginton’s OPS was .790 in 2006 and 2007 with us. He was a RH power stick with great character who could play several positions fairly good, and none of that hurt his value at the trade deadline.

I actually think the Sox get worse without Manny, and lose some of their identity. Maybe I’m going over the top because Manny is getting older and does have different nagging injuries here and there, but when he’s healthy he is still very productive. New York has gotten better though, but they will be no better with Nady and Pudge than they were with Matsui and Posada, so if you look at it that way they will just be the 3rd place team they were in April/May

I’d love to get Bay, but we shouldnt and probably wont up the offer just to make sure we get a deal done. If we trade something like Brignac, Niemann and Hellickson I will be pissed. Call me a homer if you want, but the Pirates best deal is still coming from Tampa. Let them make another mistake, we will survive. It isn’t do or die for us right now. This is the very beginning of a long road of success

Not only do players/prospects get hurt, but we can get more for, say, Niemann + Hellickson + Brignac than just Bay. Keep them and trade them at a later date (offseason) for better value, or like you said wait until someone gets hurt and plug them in to our team

by blazinrayz on Jul 31, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs