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Winning or losing the division

So maybe you're concerned about the Rays holding onto their division lead now that the trade deadline has come and gone. Personally I'm not because for one thing I don't consider the situation to be very dire anyway, I don't think that the acquisitions of Rodriguez and Bay, which are upgrades over the players they replaced, are going to make a significant difference over just two months of the season. I also know for a fact that the Rays recent troubles with RISP hitting won't continue because it's basically impossible for that to happen, it would defy any sort of logic and intelligent thought if it did so. There are also upgrades available in the minors, such as Salas or Price as relievers or Ruggiano to bat against lefties. The Rays remain just as good, if not better, of a team going forward as they were the first four months of the season.

The other reason I'm confident in the Rays having a good shot at winning the division is that a three and four game lead with two months to go is larger than you may think.

Star-divide

If you look at the monthly records for the three AL East teams you'll see that the best two month record is 35-20 by the Rays, for a .636 winning percentage. Neither the Red Sox or Yankees broke .600 over two months of games. While it is possible for a team to play better than that for two months and it does happen sometimes it's a pretty unlikely scenario. That means that with 55 games to go the situation breaks down like this (the Red Sox have 53 games to go but for convenience we'll assume 55, since they're down four in the loss column I don't think this negatively affects them):

Each team is extremely likely to win and lose 20 games over the rest of the season. To do otherwise would be to play at a good or bad level that's very unlikely to happen. That means that in reality the only games that matter, the only ones where these moves or non-moves can affect the pennant race, are the other 15. That's right, the Red Sox and Yankees really only have 15 games in which they can gain three or four games, respectively, on the Rays.

Anything can happen but I like the way this team looks with a couple upgrades from the minors and I think they're definitely good enough to keep up with the Red Sox and Yankees for those 15 important games.

 

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I'm all for calling up Price, but...

They can’t put him in the Pen. The kid is a STARTING pitcher… He’s not a J.P. Howell. You don’t place the second-coming of Nolan Ryan in the pen. I’d like to see them add him to the rotation and maybe send Jackson or Sonny to the pen.

by mrichardkent on Jul 31, 2008 8:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The first coming of Nolan Ryan

Started his career in the pen. As did Santana, Koufax, and a host of other incredible starting pitchers

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 31, 2008 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am ashamed of myself....

I just don’t want to see him in the pen when I believe we could benefit by putting a hard throwing pitcher in Ejax or a specialty RHP in Sonny…
They both scare the crap out of me every time they take the mound… A lot of people say that Sonnanstine is very solid because of his record… But if I recall, he also receive a hell of a lot of run support in most of those wins.

by mrichardkent on Jul 31, 2008 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, to an extent

I don’t think Price has thrown enough innings this year that putting him in the rotation immediately creates a risk of injury. At the same time, if he’s as good as I hope he is, I would not be at all opposed to easing him into the starting role next year by having him split time at 5th starter.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 31, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ejax has improved alot over the last month and alot from last year

if anyone should be demoted to the pen it should be sonny

longo=ROY. friedman=Executive of the year. Maddon=Manager of the year. Rays=WS champs 08!

by RaysOfHope on Aug 1, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As did Carlos Zambrano

he’s been okay so far

Blake
USF--Class of '09

by usfraysfan on Jul 31, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joba anyone?

I hear he’s turned out fine.

by hibachi7_7_7 on Jul 31, 2008 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't want to use him as an example

In the hopes that he’s a conversion gone wrong…not holding my breath on that one though

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 31, 2008 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

touche

we’ll go with Curt Schilling then

by hibachi7_7_7 on Jul 31, 2008 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Price should be better than Nolan Ryan.

Nolan was awesome, but he wasn’t a great pitcher until he was in his 40s.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Jul 31, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was a very good pitcher that was very all-or-nothing control-wise

He also leads all pitchers in walks and wild pitches by far, and was 11th in HBP.

Didn’t help that most of the teams he started for sucked.

But you don’t ignore somebody who won 300 and struck out 5,700.

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Aug 1, 2008 6:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not ignoring anyone.

I just think that if Price turns out to be as good as everyone seems to think he will, he should be a better pitcher than Nolan Ryan. His career might not have as much value, because Nolan Ryan was a freak who kept improving until he was well into his 40s, and his counting stats are way off the charts. He was an above average-good pitcher for 27 years, and that’s tremendous. But he was never the best, or even in the discussion, at any given time. And I LOVE Nolan Ryan.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

5 top 5 Cy Young Finishes

He was in the discussion, though I’m sure you’ll simply dismiss it as ‘stupid baseball writers’ .

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, yeah, I will.

Anything voted on by the BBWAA doesn’t really matter all that much to me. Sorry.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course

It’s ALWAY much better to judge pitchers on their expected ERA than what they actually contributed.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just don't pay much attention to press awards.

I think the writers value things that aren’t nearly as important as things they ignore. Things like W-L records for pitchers and RBI for hitters. Also, Derek Jeter has three Gold Gloves. Any group of people who would award Derek Jeter one Gold Glove is a group of people I’m not going to spend a lot of time listening to.

ERA+ isn’t expected ERA; it’s a park and league adjusted measure that tells you how much better (or worse) than the rest of the league an individual pitcher’s ERA was. Nolan Ryan doesn’t have a single season in the Top 500 ERA+ seasons of all time. His highest ever (not counting 1981, when he pitched fewer than 150 innings) was 142. For illustration, Pedro Martinez put up an ERA+ of 291 in 2000.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Counting Stats are still a perfectly fair place to start

When handing out awards.

I completely understand that if a player gets on base at a higher rate than another, he’s more likely to score. I also understand that if a pitcher gives up a lot of walks, they will usually give up a lot of runs. If I’m a GM looking for which player to trade for, I will certainly value the high OBP guy over the guy who scores more runs. If not, I’ll likely lose my job to someone who does.

But awards are given out (fairly) on what actually happened. If you go into Mark Shapiro’s office, you won’t find a trophy that says ‘2005 Run Differential Champions’.

P.S. Ryan twice lead the league in ERA+ and finished in the top 10 another 5 times. Price should consider himself lucky to finish atop the league in ERA+ even once. Expecting more of a pitching prospect gets you burned.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In half the innings overall

And pitching roughly half the innings each year of his career. When you maike a comp like that it shows the flaws inherent in the stat you cite.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're talking about a unique talent

A guy who basically allievated the need for a bullpen when he came into the game. Did he walk a ton of guys? Sure. But he also missed more than enough bats to easily make up for it.

Knocking a guy like Ryan smacks of dogmatism, not analysis.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Price 'should be better'

absolutely ridiculous in soooooooooooo many ways

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess?

If you are so stuck on ERA+ that it leads you to disregard a guy who once pitched 332 innings in a year (at an average of over 8 innings per start), and who holds the all-time record for k’s.

But in my book, sometimes (though not usually) common sense wins out over sabermetric dogmatism, and Ryan is one of those examples.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not many could hit Ryan

But you seem to be disregarding nearly seven walks per nine to match the 12 Ks per nine, but you didn’t really answer what I asked.

My question was how do YOU judge a pitcher? Do you look for IP (and how do you deal with the generational gaps?) Ks? BBs? What? I’m just curious because while I did throw the ERA+ statement out there I do obviously regard other metrics.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 1, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

IP, K's, BB's, HR's, ERA

But as I said, Ryan is a rare example in that he was able to consistently walk a ton of batters and then get the strikeout when he needed it. The fact that he was able to throw so many innings, win so many games, and keep the runs off the board is a testament to that.

Its obvious Ryan pitched in a different era. It’s also obvious that the usage pattern of his era, and the injuries/ineffectiveness it caused to most guys not named Ryan/Carlton are why we ended up with the 5 man rotation, and eventually pitch counts. And I think Ryan deserves extra credit for not getting inijured in the face of such usage, as this made him one of the easiest guys to anchor a staff around.

Ryan is an exception to how I would typically judge pitchers. If you are not willing to make such exceptions in extreme cases, your evaluation method, whatever it may be, is flawed.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And going back to the original point of my post

Ryan could have walked even more guys. But until David Price gets to 100 wins, lets hold off on comparing him to a first ballot hall of famer.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was a totally different game, though,

Pitchers threw tons of innings. Yes, Ryan pitched 332.7 innings in 1974. In 1973, Wilbur Wood pitched 359.3, and in 1972 he pitched 376.7. Strikeouts are a counting stat, and Nolan Ryan pitched for 27 years.

Look, I’m not saying that Nolan Ryan isn’t a legend, because clearly he is, and I’m not saying that Price is going to pitch for 27 years and be a Hall of Famer. I’m just saying that if you judge Nolan Ryan relative to the rest of the pitchers in the league throughout his career (which is the only proper way to judge players across eras) he was never an elite pitcher. So perhaps I should have phrased my original point better. My bad.

You act as though people are trying to discount what Nolan Ryan was able to accomplish in his career, and I know that I am most certainly not. Nolan Ryan is one of my all-time favorites players. But if he had pitched for ten-fifteen years, he would have gone down in history as a good, not great pitcher. His longevity is what sets him apart, and it’s certainly worth recognition and celebration.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Wilbur Wood

Didn’t have his kneecap shattered, maybe we’d be celebrating him. Call me foolish for valuing people based on what they actually did. I’m cool with that.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not calling you foolish, I just think we're arguing two different things here.

And it’s probably my fault for phrasing my original statement as poorly as I did.

I would expect Price, if he is as good as advertised (and I believe that he is,) to put up better numbers during his peak than Nolan Ryan. There’s not a lot of reason to doubt that Price is going to be an elite pitcher if everything goes according to plan.

With that being said, I don’t expect him to be one of the game’s better pitchers for 27 seasons. That’s a ridiculous thing to expect of ANYONE. Which is why Nolan Ryan is awesome and is deserving of a tremendous amount if respect. The man is a legend.

My only point is that if it weren’t for his freakish durability and ability to pitch for 27 years, if his career had taken a more typical path, he wouldn’t be remembered as anything but above average. That’s not taking anything away from him. However, if someone told me Felix Hernandez at his peak was going to be the same pitcher as Nolan Ryan at his peak, I would be annoyed, because Felix is capable of being a better pitcher. And I believe Price is as well.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ryan = 1.06 K/IP, Kazmir = 1.08 K/IP

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 1, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm actually looking forward to Kaz getting older

At some point in recent years, GM’s in front offices finally took notice of the data on young pitchers and pitch counts and applied it. For that I’m grateful. What I’m not so sold on is the way they’ve started enforcing the 100 pitch limit on veteran pitchers. Assuming he stays injury free (big assumption, I know) I wouldn’t mind seeing a 26 or 27 year old going 110-120.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think about that he already has 700+ K's

and we talk about him being a veteran in a couple of years at 26-27

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 1, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Mets!

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I tend to agree with this.

It’s always best to be careful with young pitchers, but some pitchers are capable of racking up huge pitch counts. I don’t think pushing 125+ is ever a good idea, but I think it’s almost swung a little too far in the other direction.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In terms of overall career value, Nolan was a beast.

He was nowhere near as good as his reputation. I love him, and he’s a legend, but his longevity is what made him special.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Longevity and Durability

Dennis Eckersley had longevity. Ryan had both.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And for a pitcher

That’s one of the best qualities you can have. Maybe Rich Harden, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and a host of others are better than Ryan….but they have to actually take the mound for that to happen

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, health is the sixth tool.

Chris Snelling and Rocco Baldelli could certainly attest to that.

I hate baseball.

by acblue on Aug 1, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It should be one hell of a finish

we play the yankees and redsox 12 times in a 15 game span starting September 2nd.

by Vin on Jul 31, 2008 8:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's when we'll find the beast of the east!!!

This is going to go down as one season to remember

by Rays Rule on Jul 31, 2008 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeff at LL is a traitor

“The Rays may have a three-game lead in the division, but I’d say their odds of staying there through the end of the year come down to little more than a coin flip. This is not an easy pill for them to swallow.”

I say we attack his battleship.

by Sylar on Jul 31, 2008 10:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If you get it in the exhaust port with the Force, it will explode.

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Aug 1, 2008 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?

in Philly maybe…they had to do something really bad to piss off the Minnesotans

by Sveet on Jul 31, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

MINNESOTA MANAGER RON GARDENHIRE WAS EJECTED BY THIRD BASE UMPIRE MARTY FOSTER IN THE BOTTOM OF THE SEVENTH INNING FOR ARGUING A HIT-BY-PITCH.

From what I can gather, he was ejected for arguing what he felt was a HBP…otherwise it wouldnt make sense

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 31, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not that it mattered, the batter was walked anyway.

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Aug 1, 2008 6:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ya because gardy is crying about denard span getting hit when he moved across the plate in a bunt attempt and gardy threw his hat and then some fans started throwing there hats on the field and ozzie took the white sox off the field

gardy needs to calm the fuck down and i bet he gets suspended for his act tonight

longo=ROY. friedman=Executive of the year. Maddon=Manager of the year. Rays=WS champs 08!

by RaysOfHope on Aug 1, 2008 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Long Live The Lutefisk

The Minnesotans really got their ire up eh. In Pittsburgh they throw quarters, in Philly its batteries. But here in Minnesota, we pelt the field with lutefisk. Watch out Ozzie, that lye soaked cod really gets stinky eh.

by TampaMet on Aug 1, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those Impact Games after Sept. 2nd

We will have the advantage of our expanded roster and should be fully “armed” and ready to battle with all that we’ve got to win the East. I like our chances and think we will add someone off the waiver wire to boot. It will be even sweeter to win this with our own guys that have been in our system all along. This winter it will be easier to get a missing piece of the puzzle so we can defend our title for years to come.

SC raysfan

by SC raysfan on Jul 31, 2008 11:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hellickson Davis and Price will remember...

Come contract time this team valued them high enough to not trade them. Loyalty from the Rays could be rewarded by loyalty from them as well. I think this sends a message from the FO to those players that were deemed to valuable to trade. As for Neiman and Brignac… the opposite could be true. They could be used as offseason trade bait.

by PewterPirate55 on Aug 1, 2008 12:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is a bit rediculous

I’m sure BJ Upton is remembering contract time how the Rays never lost faith in him too.

More often than not, team loyalty does not go too far with players.

by kericr on Aug 1, 2008 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why should it?

Do you have company loyalty? Would you leave your current job if another company offered a significant raise or superior working environment? What if they get hurt or stink, is the team going to “remain loyal” to the player? It’s a business just like everything else, and the notion that these players owe anything other than going out there and playing baseball to these teams out of some since of “loyalty” is a complete and utter farce.

by rglass44 on Aug 1, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I hate

Is that in the minds of at least 30% (maybe even the mjority it seems) the concept of loyalty only works as a one-way street. If BJ doesn’t sign an extension it means he has a bad attitude and is ungrateful. But if Glover gets DFA’ed, then he’s just a bum, and good riddance.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

That is the simplistic fan attitude...

I also hate how the common fan holds the amount of money a player makes against them. I have a belief that no player is overpaid, but no one I’ve ever met agrees with me.

Boom. Outta Here.

by WillisDaddy on Aug 1, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some do...

We’re just in the minority…

by tallyray on Aug 1, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the company sticks by me when I am underperforming or ...

I am considered to valuable an asset to trade hell yes I stick by them. You have to remember they didnt hold these guys back from more money. If they traded them their contracts would have remained the same. They Rays FO simply told them you are more valuable to the future than Jason Bay is to the present. I would remember that and trust me I think these guys will too. They will make big contracts once they reach the Majors. As for BJ well he and his brother have been nothing but show me the money since day 1. They are both determined to make it to free agency. BJ underperforming lowers his trade value and free agency value … which is a plus in my book when it comes contract time as well as when he goes to arbitration. Either way loyalty from a company is rewarded by loyalty from the employee.

by PewterPirate55 on Aug 1, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The day after....

I won’t lie – I am disappointed we did not tweak the roster and try to
address the shortcomings but if the price was too high it was too
high. We know we have some internal options like Ruggiano, Rocco,
Price, Talbot, and Salas that should help at least by the time rosters
expand on 9/1.

Not to mention, getting the big ticket is not exactly a guarantee for
success. Look at the Brewers who added the best guy out there and are
still 5 games back. Pitching and defense can get you the playoffs but
you eventually have to hit. Hopefully the pitching and defense can
hold up and give some of the struggling hitters a chance to right the
ship.

by Jason Collette on Aug 1, 2008 10:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was sure they'd make a minor move

I figured they’d add Blake and a lefty reliever. I think the deadline played out a little differently this year. Most of the minor talents went early and then there was a battle for the premium talent left at the end.

Hopefully the offense comes around like it should.

by tallyray on Aug 1, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how about a new thread on making some internal moves already,

gross sucks, gomes sucks, reyes sucks, miller sucks. call up ruggiano and have him play RF. call up Baldelli and have him play RF and DH. call up Salas and Price and you replace Reyes and Miller, while making a huge upgrade. what the fuck is taking so long to make any sort of internal move when it’s painfully obvious that these 4 guys just aren’t coming out of their funk?

by davidsmarch on Aug 1, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Give it at least 48 hours

Before striking up the chorus…That’s how long it takes to send a player through waivers.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

why do we have to send our own players through waivers just to call them up?

all 4 of these guys are already on the 40 man. we’d only have to use waivers if we plan on trading someone, no? are you saying you see these 4 possibly being put on waivers and traded or released and then some call ups happening?

by davidsmarch on Aug 1, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I'm saying it makes no sense

To give away Gomes or Miller for free, when just 24 hours ago (and still likely) there are/were teams willing to give up prospects for a lefty reliever. I’m also fairly confident that if Gomes were put through waivers, some team would attempt to claim him.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 1, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Upgrades...

Look all well and good until the player comes up. Ruggiano may be better than Gomes and Gross but he also could be much worse. I don’t think the FO is ready to dump Gomes and Gross for nothing and I can’t doubt them.

by tallyray on Aug 1, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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