DRaysBay: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: RSL Soapbox for Real Salt Lake Fans!

Ray's Adjusted W-L Records

Breaking down our staff using Eric Seidman's adjusted W-L record model looks like this so far this year:

Scott Kazmir is 7-3, with a 7-3 Adj  (FIP 3.12)

James Shields is 6-5, with a 7-4 Adj (FIP 3.17)

Matt Garza is 7-4, with a 9-2 Adj (FIP 4.11)

Andy Sonnanstine is 10-3, with a 6-7 Adj (FIP 3.25)

Edwin Jackson is 5-6, with a 3-8 Adj (FIP 4.40)

So, relative to the amount of good games vs bad games, in which they recorded decisions, the Rays five are 32-24, whereas their actual records add up to 35-21, meaning their offense and bullpen has done a good job at scoring and holding leads when starters go 5 or less.

The adjusted numbers are found by seperating each pitchers Cheap Wins, Tough Losses, Legit Wins, and Legit Losses - all of which are derived from AQS (Adjusted Quality Starts).  The adjusted records show the amount of times a pitcher deserved to win or lose relative to the amount of decisions received.  Also - no decisions are not included in this model. 

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

BP's expected wins:

Shields 6.6
Sonnanstine 6.4
Jackson 6.4
Garza 5.8
Kazmir 5.2

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 6, 2008 8:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I am surprised about Jackson

Yes, we are all aware he loses the strike zone too often but he has definatley pitched better than 3-8.

by joeybw on Jul 6, 2008 8:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Those records don't make sense

Not sure how they compute those numbers, but Edwin has 3 games where he has given up no runs and 4 games where he has given up only 1 run. He also has other above average games. I have no idea how is record could be 3-8.

by Sveet on Jul 6, 2008 10:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

If anything, he should have at least 2 more wins than he does. Percy blew both of his saves in games in which Edwin was in line for the win. 3 wins is way too low.

by save_the_trop on Jul 7, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Adjusted W-L

does not acknowledge no-decisions. So, relative to the decisions Edwin Jackson has received, 3 have been “good” games, and 8 have been “bad” games. Most of his better games have been no-decisions.

Johnny let his baby brother sleep, through the back door and baseball, all the kids are waiting outside, Old days come and go too soon Old friends, heroes, lifetimes. Don't let a single memory fade away

by LeftRight on Jul 7, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That explains it

I’m not sure I really like Seidman’s model then.

by Sveet on Jul 7, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The model is solid for what it explains

I will post their Net Luck Ratings and Pitcher Effectiveness Points, which will paint the full picture.

Johnny let his baby brother sleep, through the back door and baseball, all the kids are waiting outside, Old days come and go too soon Old friends, heroes, lifetimes. Don't let a single memory fade away

by LeftRight on Jul 7, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Founded in 2005. DRaysBay is home to "progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."
Start posting about the Rays »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Desert Dogs to play in the AFL championship @ 2:30 EST.
Desmond Jennings Makes the Tops AA-All-Stars
ABC Coalition to Vote on Draft Report Today.
Fan page for Dick Bosman, Rays minor league pitching coordinator
Upton's Struggles vs Lefties
Evan Longoria wins the Silver Slugger Award
09 Minor Leaguers File for Free Agency
Longoria on the MLB 2k10 cover?
Thank you Tim Marchman.
Longo's Slugcon by Location

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


VPs of Baseball Operations

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Zorilla_small FreeZorilla

Price_small Erik Hahmann

Ticket Account Executive

Rays_small Steve Slowinski