Ray's Adjusted W-L Records
by LeftRight on Jul 6, 2008 7:16 PM EDT
8 comments
Breaking down our staff using Eric Seidman's adjusted W-L record model looks like this so far this year:
Scott Kazmir is 7-3, with a 7-3 Adj (FIP 3.12)
James Shields is 6-5, with a 7-4 Adj (FIP 3.17)
Matt Garza is 7-4, with a 9-2 Adj (FIP 4.11)
Andy Sonnanstine is 10-3, with a 6-7 Adj (FIP 3.25)
Edwin Jackson is 5-6, with a 3-8 Adj (FIP 4.40)
So, relative to the amount of good games vs bad games, in which they recorded decisions, the Rays five are 32-24, whereas their actual records add up to 35-21, meaning their offense and bullpen has done a good job at scoring and holding leads when starters go 5 or less.
The adjusted numbers are found by seperating each pitchers Cheap Wins, Tough Losses, Legit Wins, and Legit Losses - all of which are derived from AQS (Adjusted Quality Starts). The adjusted records show the amount of times a pitcher deserved to win or lose relative to the amount of decisions received. Also - no decisions are not included in this model.
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BP's expected wins:
Shields 6.6
Sonnanstine 6.4
Jackson 6.4
Garza 5.8
Kazmir 5.2
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 6, 2008 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I am surprised about Jackson
Yes, we are all aware he loses the strike zone too often but he has definatley pitched better than 3-8.
by joeybw on Jul 6, 2008 8:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Those records don't make sense
Not sure how they compute those numbers, but Edwin has 3 games where he has given up no runs and 4 games where he has given up only 1 run. He also has other above average games. I have no idea how is record could be 3-8.
by Sveet on Jul 6, 2008 10:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
If anything, he should have at least 2 more wins than he does. Percy blew both of his saves in games in which Edwin was in line for the win. 3 wins is way too low.
by save_the_trop on Jul 7, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adjusted W-L
does not acknowledge no-decisions. So, relative to the decisions Edwin Jackson has received, 3 have been “good” games, and 8 have been “bad” games. Most of his better games have been no-decisions.
Johnny let his baby brother sleep, through the back door and baseball, all the kids are waiting outside, Old days come and go too soon Old friends, heroes, lifetimes. Don't let a single memory fade away
by LeftRight on Jul 7, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That explains it
I’m not sure I really like Seidman’s model then.
by Sveet on Jul 7, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The model is solid for what it explains
I will post their Net Luck Ratings and Pitcher Effectiveness Points, which will paint the full picture.
Johnny let his baby brother sleep, through the back door and baseball, all the kids are waiting outside, Old days come and go too soon Old friends, heroes, lifetimes. Don't let a single memory fade away
by LeftRight on Jul 7, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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