Most Valuable Rays
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 10, 2008 2:05 PM EDT
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PrintUsing Justin's calculations (the best, Jerry, the best) as of August 3rd games, here are your MVRs (Most Valuable Rays). Position players are judged by their offensive production, position, and fielding relative to position. Pitchers are judged by their innings, estimated leverage, and quality of innings (using a fielding-independent ERA like number.) All data are park and league adjusted and represent runs above a replacement player.
Value Name
38 Longoria
33 Shields
30 Upton
29 Sonnanstine
27 Kazmir
21 Garza
19 Iwamura
17 Crawford
16 Navarro
15 Hinske
13 Balfour
12 Pena
11 Jackson
8 Aybar
8 Howell
5 Gross
4 Riggans
4 Bartlett
3 Floyd
2 Miller
2 Birkins
1 DiFelice
1 Reyes
1 Zobrist
1 Wheeler
0 Ruggiano
0 Ryu
0 Glover
0 Dohmann
0 Cannizaro
-1 Gomes
-2 Haynes
-2 Hammel
-2 Brignac
-2 Niemann
-3 Johnson
-6 Percival
If some of those pitcher numbers look weird, it's probably because Justin rates pitchers on their skills shown, not their actual ERAs. Here are the fielding-independent ERAs as calculated by Justin:
FIP Name
1.66 Balfour
3.16 Birkins
3.17 Kazmir
3.57 Howell
3.62 Shields
3.67 Sonnanstine
3.83 Ryu
4.03 Miller
4.13 Garza
4.13 Reyes
4.46 Wheeler
4.60 Glover
4.64 Dohmann
4.80 Jackson
4.92 Hammel
5.17 Percival
7.94 Niemann
When you see me ranting about Wheeler and Percival not being as good as their ERAs or why Sonnanstine is a better starter than EJax, this is why. If you don't buy fielding-independent ERAs, then I'd like you to please explain why EJax, Sonny, JP Howell, and Shawn Camp have good ERAs this year and didn't last year.
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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all pitchers above Shields
Value Pitcher
53 Lee
52 Halladay
46 Haren
42 Lincecum
42 Webb
38 Santana
37 Burnett
35 Sheets
35 Billingsley
35 Hernandez
34 Danks
34 Lowe
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
some things that aren't considered in a fielding-independent ERA:
hits on balls in play—Burnett’s at .334 (.310 is about the highest you should expect of a major league pitcher; and the Jays play really good defense)
homeruns per flyball - Burnett’s at 18.7% (league-average is about 11% - pitcher’s don’t vary far from that in general)
runners stranded - Burnett’s at 68% (a pitcher with his skills should be more in the low to mid 70s. although the first two stats listed explain much of why this number is low - more hits and homeruns than expected lead to more runners scoring than expected)
*
the Blue Jays have been extremely unlucky this year. by many measures, they’re a top five to top ten team in demonstrated talent. how crazy would it be if there was a four team race for the AL East?
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
any reason?
i agree it’s not perfect
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
all position players above Longoria
Value Name
64 Sizemore
63 Jones
61 Pujols
60 Utley
59 Berkman
47 Rodriguez
46 Ramirez
46 Holliday
41 Burrell
41 Roberts
40 Wright
40 McCann
39 Braun
39 Teixeira
38 Beltran
38 Giles
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
Because we use him in more important spots
If you watch closely, Maddon will save him for high leverage situations in the sixth or seventh inning when we need our best guy on the hill – last night with 2 runners on, no outs – Balfour came in and shut the door with a 2 run lead. Same as Friday, and so on. Balfour is essentially our closer, and Percival is the puppet there to get the ever so important save with a 3 run lead.
Also, Regarding Jackson, Howell, etc. change in ERA
Where was John Danks on these lists last year? Cliff Lee? Players improve.
definitely. and they get worse, too.
these numbers are just a measure of what players have done so far in 2008. if you want to project performance going forward, that’s a whole different beast. and even then, you’ll miss players who gain or lose skills.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
Why does Sonny always look so good on paper...
and so average in games? I hope that one day he can be as dominant as these #s suggest he has been. I mean, does anyone believe that he has been our second best starter? Oh well, I guess any analysis that doesn’t factor in BAA and SLGA will always make Sonny look great.
BAA is an awful stat to judge pitchers by.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe so. But any analysis that says that Sonny is the Rays 2nd best starter this season....
is also flawed.
by save_the_trop on Aug 11, 2008 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure if he's the second best starter
But if you think he’s the worst starter I have to question your ability to analyze pitching.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
third-best in terms of quality
it’s just that his extra innings push him ahead of Kazmir in total value. remember who pitched instead of Kaz when he was out? yeah, that didn’t help things.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
Kaz also wasn't in the rotation for 5 starts
This effects his overall “value” in this estimation. If it was value/game or some rate measure Sonny would be lower than Kaz.
Fair enough. But I still see major flaws in this formula...
It rates Sonny’s performance has been 2.5 times greater than Jackson’s and comparable to Shields. I don’t see that at all.
by save_the_trop on Aug 11, 2008 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
He HAS been a lot better than Jackson.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Seriously run through the numbers:
FIP
Sonny 3.62
Edwin 4.92
xFIP
Sonny 4.30
Edwin 4.93
LD%
Sonny 17.8
Edwin 18.0
HR/G
Sonny 0.84
Edwin 1.12
GB%
Sonny 41.8
Edwin 40.7
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Aren't a lot of those better for predictive value than assessing past value?
Jackson has been quite valuable this year since he has limited his runs. Be it luck or some divine power Jackson has achieved better results (runs allowed) than Sonny has.
What this tells us is that Sonnanstine is likely better going forward and in the past did more of what good pitchers usually do than Jackson. Jackson just had better results.
It’s process vs. result based analysis.
i would qualify that by saying...
if you take a 4.50 true-talent ERA pitcher and put him in front of a great defense, his ERA will be more like 4.00. Do we give the pitcher credit for his 4.00 ERA or the 4.50 FIP? I’d say the 4.50 FIP, because otherwise you’re double-counting the difference—giving credit to both Jackson and the fielders. I’d say the fielders get credit and Jackson doesn’t.
I can see giving pitchers credit for allowing/not allowing homeruns above or below the typical 11% HR/FB rate, because we’re not involving any other playres in that credit/blame.
Or (and this gets really geeky), you give pitchers credit for the batted balls they actually allow (this is possible with play by play data and Dave Pinto often presents the data with his PMR fielding metric). So if a pitcher actually gives up a lot of batted balls to places on the field away from fielders, he gets docked and the fielders don’t (or they get lots of credit if they make great plays). But for batted balls allowed that are typically turned into outs, the pitcher gets a bunch of credit and the fielders don’t (or they get negative credit for not making the plays). This approach sort of gives credit for a pitcher’s BABIP, but it’s more like expected BABIP, not actual BABIP.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
Balfour and Pena
Balfour comes in when we need to get out of a inning and reverse all the momentum to the Rays. Pena is the most valuable player because he leads the league in fielding percentage with 1error and comes through when no one else is.
BTW where’s Gross? Gross has 3-walk off hits and shows what this team is really about.
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