I just love how many folks here simply use historical data to judge Edwin Jackson. Christ if that is what you do to every young player then you wouldn’t have any left. Well besides Evan Longoria, but BJ Upton certainly would not be here. Hell compare Kazmir and Jackson. Clearly Kazmir is better than Jackson now and probably always will be. But his reputation is far better than his actual performance (which is pretty crappy lately to say the least). Whys that? Because we all know he is going to get better and better. Well why doesn’t Jackson get the same benefit of the doubt. In fact Jackson should get more considering how raw he is. I hate this obvious witch hunt and double standard.

I’m all for trading any player if we get the proper return. But if you are just going to ask for a return based upon what hes done the past couple years then you are clearly selling low, very low.

COmbined with all of the statistical analysis that has been mentioned, it is clear to can not succeed long term unless his improves immensely. Obviously his K:BB ratio is bad, but even when he throws strikes, he isnt consistent within the strike zone. That is one of the reasons he is so inconsistent, combine walking people and throwing bad strikes, and poor results are sure to follow.
Regardless, I have been happy with the RESULTS from EJ this year. Personally, I think he would be awful out of the pen. Low K rates and high BB rates are just as disastrous coming out of the pen. I’ve been a big propenent of selling high on EJ this offseason. There will be an idiot GM that sees a young pitcher with 3 (?) years of team control left that is a #3/4. That can usually get some nice prospects in return. And in case people havent noticed, there arent too many hitting prospects in the Rays org right now.

idiot GMs left.

Scott Kazmir has poor GB:FB rates, very average K:BB rates, and his WHIP for most his career has been slightly below average. So by this genius formula of determining whether EVERY pitcher is good or bad, says that Kazmir is a fringe MLer. YAWN

Fact is, JAckson’s stuff is good enough that, like Kazmir, he can give up BBs and flyballs that most cant because the opposing hitters arent getting the same wood on the ball that you assume when you use those stats. Thats the problem. You are assuming. Assuming Kazmir and Jackson are equal to the rest of the league, and treating them like that. Its wrong. They arent. Jackson gives up a lot of lazy fly balls. He gives up a lot of BBs, and not many hits, and those runs dont score lke hey would against the average ML pitcher. I mean you cant ONLY use thsoe stats, as good as they are at showing gthings that pitchers are doing, and completely ignore whats actually happening in the game

One quality Kazmir and Jackson share that is ignored, is they both try too hard to hit spots and both have the ability to miss within the strikezone and get guys out. They both do this, yet when Jackson does it he is called a bad pitcher

to make your point. I am not sure what an average K/BB rate is, but Kazmir’s is considerably better than Jackson’s. This year it is 2.59. Last year it was 2.68, and that was mostly due to a poor first half when he was walking a lot more batters. His great second half was fueled at least partly by a dramatic improvement on that score.

And in 2006, when he seemed to break through before getting hurt, the ratio was 3.13, which I think is pretty good. That was the year he improved his BB rate by almost a full walk per 9 while maintaining his high K rate.

With Jackson, we are not seeing anything like those kinds of ratios or development. His K/BB rate this year is 1.31 and last year it was 1.45 as his K rate is falling faster than his BB rate.

You may be right that Jackson is improving in other ways. Jackson’s hit rate is down to about one per inning this year. For his career it has been almost 10/9. (Kazmir has never had a season of 9/9, his average being around 8/9.)
He is still giving up more home runs than Scott as well, 1/8 IP vs. 1/10 IP. He does seem less prone to collapsing early in the game. It remains to be seen if that is a skill he has or a matter of luck.

In any case, I am not arguing that Jackson has not improved, will not continue to improve (if he has), or does not have some attributes the stats are missing. I simply do not think any effort to associate him with Kazmir to make a point is valid.

Assuming Price joins the rotation next season and there is only one spot available, which one of the following five guys would you choose to not have in the rotation and trade? I’ve listed their Fielding Independent ERA for the past two seasons.

1. 3.86 – 3.75
2. 4.18 – 3.98
3. 4.90 – 4.87
4. 4.26 – 3.50
5. 3.45 – 3.50

I’d trade #3 myself as his best FIP is something like 3/4ths of a run higher than any of the other guys worst FIP. #3 conveniently happens to be Edwin Jackson.

Simply because of his age (24), his team control (3 years), and skill set (#4 starter) I’d imagine there’d be plenty of suitors from around baseball. His upside may have been a #1 starter at some point, but he now has over 400 ML innings under his belt and he’s spent the past three years regressing in K/9, regressing in BB/9, regressing in GB %, and masking that with a better than league average LOB %, an artificially low BABIP, and an improving team defense. I could buy into the developing ace theory if his peripherals were actually improving (meaning his command and control were improving) as his stuff is clearly great, but they haven’t improved.

I’d cash in my chips where he is now as it’s pretty clear that rotation spots will be at a premium from here on out and if he regresses to his expected almost 5.00 ERA next season, he won’t be worth much of anything on the trade market.