BERA Update

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 2:06 PM EDT Comment 37 comments

It's been a while, but here are the newest batch of BERAs.Remember the BERA is simply a projection of what the pitcher's ERA should be based on 30 seasons worth of total bases and ERA data.

Pitcher	ERA	IP	BB	TB	TOTAL	BPIP	BERA
Shields	3.65	158	25	246	271	1.72	3.59
Sonnanstine	4.4	141	24	253	277	1.96	4.37
Jackson	4.07	137	59	219	278	2.03	4.58
Garza	3.88	135	44	196	240	1.78	3.8
Kazmir	3.2	104	44	149	193	1.86	4.03
Howell	2.48	65.3	32	70	102	1.56	3.1
Hammel	4.33	62.3	28	101	129	2.07	4.71
Wheeler	2.72	49.7	16	64	80	1.61	3.25
Percival	3.58	37.7	15	52	67	1.78	3.78
Miller	4.75	30.3	19	39	58	1.91	4.21
Balfour	1.3	34.7	14	19	33	0.95	1.17

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Comments

What is this stat RJ?

30 year projection? That would make Percival 70+ years old, I don’t think he would be effective at 72?

But seriously….what is this? How is this usable?

Mound Visit

by Mound Visit on Aug 11, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Read this:

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/5/25/535786/bpip-and-the-rays

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Basically think of BPIP as SLG for WHIP.

And BERA is just to put it into a scale that most people are comfortable with while showing who’s been lucky/unlucky ERA wise.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks you Sir

Mound Visit

by Mound Visit on Aug 11, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you have any other questions about it feel free to ask.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good to see you using this number RJ

Is it catching on at all with other sabermetic types?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 11, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm about to do a big post on BTB about it.

Bendix, my co-writer there, seems to like it though.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Post a link when posted

or e-mail me. I’m interested to see where you’re going with it.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 11, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

any stats on the knuckle scratcher?

While yes he may be getting a little lucky, JP is still pretty damn good. I dont understand why we have been using him for 1 out lately.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 11, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

KTAR 620 in Arizona reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired Adam Dunn from the Reds for three prospects.
According to the radio station, the Reds will receive pitching prospect Dallas Buck and two players to be named later.

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Aug 11, 2008 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thank you Dodgers, you've managed to screw over the Rays twice in one year.

Chances are, Arizona doesn’t give two shits about Adam Dunn if the Dodgers don’t pick up ManRam.

by kericr on Aug 11, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does this account for K's in any way?

That may lessen the effect on some pitchers, such as Howell and Kazmir.

by raysrule07 on Aug 11, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No.

Simply bases given up.

Although if you have any ideas on how to improve it I’d be all ears.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Having been involved in this one

it’s important to look at these things in context.

Pitchers with higher BPIP’s should outperform that number if they have high K rates – allowing them to strand rather than advance runners – or high GB rates, which typically result in more DP’s. In fact, factoring in DP rates might be the single best improvement on this stat. But one could contemplate adding things like SB performance (+ & -), wild pitches, etc. as these are factors that impact bases allowed and are pitcher related.

The concept is that bases allowed is critical because it takes 4 bases to score – the thought being that it’s an improvement on WHIP because the latter treats all ways of reaching as equal, and clearly a HR isn’t equal to a BB. The goal was to devise a stat that is more predictive of ERA (or the sabermetic variants of same) than WHIP is, and WHIP may well be the most predictive at this point. But I believe RJ’s initial number crunching showed BPIP to be more effective in this regard. While ERA has fallen into some disfavor, that’s largely a product of the disproportionate impact unearned runs can make.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 11, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This doesn't fit in, but I don't care.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 11, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phelps beat him......

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 11, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um, yeah

Tiger Woods beats a lot of golfers. Roger Federer beats a lot of tennis players. What’s your point?

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 11, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phelps > that guy

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 11, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phelps > Every swimmer who ever lived

And ‘that guy’ won a medal for his country. Grow up

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 11, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So did a lot of people

no need to get pissy.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 11, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love the way you pour on the haterade

Every time anyone mentions anything positive involving UF. I take it as a compliment that people feel so threatened by the Gator’s success.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 11, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a pattern

and it’s very predictable.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 11, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope just find it annoying

you don’t see me post stuff about any of my other teams? Guess what I actually like Tebow and think he is a good college player. Sorry I don’t love UF.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 11, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So just so we are clear

Talking about the Olympics is ok, but being proud of an Olympian from your local area is annoying? You’re the one with the issues bud.

And you’re not shy about posting ad nauseum about your favorite music, movies, etc. But you apply a different standard when it involves UF.

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 11, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did I tell you to stop posting the pic of the dude?

No. I just said Phelps beat him. Here want a picture of UF. Do whatever you want I am not an admit you can post whatever you want. I don’t have to like it you and don’t have to like what I post.