Rays Fielding Projections

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 10:41 AM EDT Comment 38 comments

Colin Wyers has done some crude fielding projections based on historical and 2008 zone ratings from both STATS and BIS (THT's RZR). Here are projections for Rays (and Sheffield, because I was interested.) All numbers are runs relative to position over a full season.

Pos	Player	STATS	BIS	AVG
1B	Aybar	4	17	10.5
1B	Pena	-7	5	-1

2B	Zobrist	2	4	3
2B	Aki	-3	3	0
2B	Upton	-5	-7	-6

3B	Hinske	4	6	5
3B	Aybar	4	3	3.5
3B	Aki	-6	-7	-6.5
3B	Upton	-7	-9	-8

CF	Gross	2	5	3.5
CF	Upton	-4	3	-0.5

LF	Crawfor	13	6	9.5
LF	Gross	4	3	3.5
LF	Hinske	-3	-4	-3.5

RF	Gross	3	3	3
RF	Hinske	-9	-3	-6
RF	Sheffie	-5	-9	-7

SS	Bartlet	6	5	5.5
SS	Zobrist	-10	-10	-10

Obviously, sample size warning apply for many of these players. But there are some things worth noting:

Hinske rates surprisingly well at third base, although that's using half the data as his right field rating.
Sheffield isn't worse than Hinske in the outfield.
Gabe Gross is a 10 run upgrade over both Hinske and Sheffield in the outfield.
Going from Bartlett to Zobrist looks ugly, but I think we knew that already.
Aybar, in limited playing time looks to be a very good fielder. I'd like to see him play at third, and putting him at first instead of Pena if Pena can DH wouldn't be crazy.
Pena rates lower than most fans would predict. Thoughts? (This analysis does not include "scooping ability".)

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Based on my eyes, I’m very skeptical that Aybar is a better fielding first baseman than Pena. It is extremely unfortunate that 1B fielding stats don’t incorporate scooping ability since it is probably just as, if not more important, than range (i.e. OOZ plays) for a first baseman. I would not be in favor of DHing Pena.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 12, 2008 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

there have been a couple small studies on scooping ability

both along the lines of comparing infielder performance with different first basemen. the difference in scooping talent is mostly in the +/- 5 runs range, so not that huge. and the interesting thing is that tall 1Bs tend to score very well—they aren’t necessarily better scoopers, but the infielders can aim higher, putting fewer balls in the dirt.

stats are here: http://home.comcast.net/%7Ebriankaat/1bscoop.htm

Top 10 All Time, Runs Per Season (since 1985)
11.2 Steve Balboni
8.4 Keith Hernandez
8 Travis Lee
7.9 Bill Buckner
7.5 Todd Helton
7.4 Hee Seop Choi
7.2 Brian Daubach
6.4 Todd Benzinger
6.2 Lyle Overbay
5.7 Greg Walker

Bottom Ten:
-5.2 Frank Thomas
-5.4 Mike Sweeney
-6.2 Eduardo Perez
-6.2 Ron Coomer
-6.8 Steve Cox
-7.4 Julio Franco
-8.2 Nomar Garciaparra
-9 Dmitri Young
-9.4 Gary Redus
-11.6 Matt Stairs
-15.8 Kevin Seitzer

Pena: 3.1 runs saved per season

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Travis Lee !! He was a vacuum. As was his bat.

by RATW on Aug 12, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I count 3 former Rays there

Cox, Lee, and Hee Seop!

by rglass44 on Aug 12, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

these make no sense,

first off, Aybar a better 3b then aki? no. also, where is longoria? are we to believe that zobrist is a better 2b then aki? aybar better then pena?

either this is complete horse shit, or the sample sizes are so small that you shoudln’t have posted them.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it should be obvious which players have small sample sizes at which positions

Zobrist at 3B and 2B is next to meaningless, but Aki at 3B certainly isn’t. He was not a very good 3B.

Aybar doesn’t have a lot of data over the past three years at any position, but the fact that he rates decently at all positions is a good sign.

Longoria’s been about a +6 run fielder so far this year, so about +8 over a full season. A projection would probably regress that a bit.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

aki was the best fielding 3b in the league last year, and a GG in japan, did he all the sudden become an average 3b?

no, these ratings are bunk. you should have left off the small sample sizez, as they really mean nothing. try comparing outside the org, that might actually tell us something we don’t already know.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gold Gloves, in Japan no less, are the most valuable award ever.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

regardless,

these are obviously flawed statistics.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

obviously?

because they don’t match your opinion? other than the players with small sample sizes, there is strong objective reason to think these are pretty decent.

just curious (and I’m honestly asking, not simply to bait you), how would you rate Aki, Zobrist, Bartlett, Hinske, Aybar, and Pena at the various positions they might be asked to play?

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who knows, on a whim...

1B: Pena, Aybar, Hinske
2B: Aki, Zobrist, Aybar
SS: Bartlett, Longoria, Zobrist
3: Longoria, Aki, Aybar

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aybar was known as a Good glove decent bat for a while, I'm not sure where ZOMG HE SUCKS comes in.

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 12, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what's your basis for this statement?

“Aki was the best fielding 3b in the league last year.”

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

his fielding percentage...

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This will end well.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah it will,

he may not have the best range, of the most ooz plays, or whatever other stat people want to throw out there. but down and dirty, best fielding percentage means best fielder. best batting avg means best hitter (note: not best batter. i.e. a player who hits .400 is a better hitter then one that bats .350, but if the one that bats .350 has an obp of .450, then he may be a better batter). so yes, aki was the best fielding 3b last year…

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll nitpick here.

Are you saying the guy who hits .310 with a slugging of .350 is a better hitter than the guy who hits .290 with a slugging of .500?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've got to agree with Davidsmarch a bit....

Not on the hitting, but on the fielding. Aki gobbled up everything that was hit near him. To me, that is quite valuable.
I am a convert to saber stats and believe they are quite useful. I really have to question some of these fielding metrics, as they dont quite seem to be an exact science. How hard the ball was hit, where the 3rd baseman was positioned, etc. I dont know how these stats are formulated, but I believe there COULD be a significant margin for error in the fielding metrics.
Having said that, I do believe the hitting and pitching metrics are quite valuable and useful.

by td32 on Aug 12, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there definitely IS a wider margin of error for fielding stats

and the systems will definitely miss by a wide margin on some players.

the reason i’m always skeptical when fans disagree with a player’s rating is that fans of EVERY team disagree about a BUNCH of players. the systems don’t miss THAT often.

looking at Tango’s Fans Scouting Report (you did fill this out last year, right?), Aki’s rated very highly, with his relative weaknesses being speed and arm strength/accuracy (hence his improvement switching to 2B).

it’s also fun to look at BJ’s ratings and see that it’s obvious he’s a better fit in the OF than in the infield.

http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2007_TBA.html

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is why I am more skeptical of fielding stats...

Because of the margin for error. As they develop more sophisticated ways to determine how hard a ball was hit, exactly where it was hit, exactly where the player was positioned, then I will believe in them more and more. This isnt a condemnation of fielding stats, I just simply believe those stats may be more distorted then others.

by td32 on Aug 12, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i didn't say anything about slugging.

i don’t think power has anything to do with how good of a hitter you are, that’s just one facet of hitting. you can be a great hitter and mostly hit singles and gap doubles, and hardly ever get home-runs, etc… . but all things considered, i’d take the .290/.500 guy.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, 2007 Jose Vidro is an equal hitter to 2007 A-Rod?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you'd like to supply all the necessary stats to compare,

i’ll gladly provide an answer.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both had .314 batting averages.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you think BA is the only necessary stat,

then you need to go talk to RJ…

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just going by what you said.

Ignoring OBP, you said you don’t think power is a big part of being a good hitter. So if A-Rod and Vidro have equal BAs, you’re saying they’re equally good hitters, not batters, hitters.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point, then yes.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but i also said, all things considered,

i’d take the same BA with more power, obviously.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i will agree with you, if...

we redefine your definition of “best fielder” as “the fielder who turns the highest percentage of balls that he gets his glove on into outs.”

of course, just as batting average is only one part of offensive production, your definition of “best fielder” is only one part of defensive production.

advanced measures of range are much more meaningful than fielding percentage, and, if I can be so bold, are actually what people are looking for when they quote fielding percentage. in English, zone rating is “of all the balls a fielder could track down and turn into an out, what percentage does he actually convert?”

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

regardless of the definition,

he’s much better then Zobrist, in all the ways of fielding.

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is just awful

I’m sorry, but when you say someone is the best hitter, you don’t mean it to be the player with the highest average. That just isn’t the case.

by rglass44 on Aug 12, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, i just said is, so that is what i mean...

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So I guess Christian Guzman > BJ Upton

by Jason Collette on Aug 12, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

does he have a higher BA?

then yes. but that doesn’t mean he’s a better batter…

by davidsmarch on Aug 12, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I get it, you are just being difficult.

What fun.

by rglass44 on Aug 12, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Careful, sternfan might get jealous.

by RATW on Aug 12, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dial

Chris Dial also put out UZR for the season so far this week. Other than Crawford, nobody near the top of their position, but nobody’s near the bottom either.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/al_defensive_stats_through_august_7/

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 12, 2008 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

just to be clear

Dial’s fielding ratings are based on STATS zone rating. The fielding ratings Justin uses are an average of those and the BIS ratings available at Hardball Times (RZR). I like using both data sets to get rid of quirks in how the different data providers record things. And if anyone reads Sean Smith’s blog, he recently posted fielding ratings which are just the BIS zone ratings.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 12, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs