The Seasons not over II

by John 63 on Aug 12, 2008 12:21 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

The math is simple; if the Rays can lose four games less than the Red Sox over the next 40 games they will almost definitely win the American League East. Yet without Evan Longoria (for the next three weeks) and Carl Crawford can the Rays pull it off?

The math is moreso on the Rays side more than ever. Consider that if the Rays succumb to the Bosox and surrender the A.L. East, they are still almost a shoe in to win the Wild Card. At 25 games above the .500 mark the Rays could play the next 45 games with an 18 - 27 record and still sqeak out a wild card birth.

Assuming the White Sox or Twins win an avg. of 55% of their games the rest of the way (which they have done throughout the season), the best either Central team could do would be to finish tied with the Rays for the W.C.

It is more evident than ever that this Rays team will indeed make the playoffs one way or another.

TICKETS! GET YOUR PLAYOFF TICKETS!

0 recs | Comment 7 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

One game at a time

Good Lord Willing

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 12, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly right

Historically the wild card winner only needs 89 or 90 wins. This year the pace is even slower, so do not be surprised if only 87 or 88 wins would take the wild card. If you haven’t looked that would be a total collapse for the Rays to only win 87.

by matthan on Aug 12, 2008 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Put it this way

For the Rays to hit just 87 wins (which may still get them the Wild Card) they would have to play at a .355 clip. Just for reference the worst team in MLB, the nats, are playing at a .370 clip.

by matthan on Aug 12, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This also shows how critical this series is

If we sweep them we can win at a .309 pace and still probably win the wild card
If we win 2 of 3 we can win at a .333 pace and still probably win the wild card
If we lose 1 of 3 we can win at a .357 pace
If we get swept we still only have to win at a .381 pace

A .381 pace is essentially what the Mariners are playing at this year so even if we get swept we are in pretty good shape as long as we do not turn into the word team in baseball.

If we sweep them we would be close to a lock. It would require an epic collapse for one of the best teams in baseball to suddenly start winning at a .300 clip

by matthan on Aug 12, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

worst not word

by matthan on Aug 12, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While these numbers make a lot of sense...

We must play one game at a time, and continue to win series. If they can play near .500 on the road, and play around .575 at home, then a postseason spot is a lock.
I’m not too worried about the Yankees with their pitching problems, but the Twins/White Sox could creep back up if we hit a losing streak. Doing well in the A’s and Rangers series would be huge, but from hear on out, every series is important.

by td32 on Aug 12, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re the Yankees

If the Rays split (go 22-21 over their last 43 games) the Yankees have to go 30-11 to tie, and it’s hard to imagine the Yankees playing 750 ball over the rest of the season. If the Rays split, they have 94 wins, and that should be plenty.

The AL win in the Allstar game suddenly becomes very relevant.

by Fox 71 on Aug 14, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs