Best New Toy Ever
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 14, 2008 9:47 AM EDT
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PrintGraham and Matthew of LookoutLanding have launched their new stats website appropriately named StatCorner.com. They promise to feature updated tRA (probably the best pitching stat finally available, it takes into account just about every event possible) and wOBA (nearly the same as tRA, but developed by Tom Tango) as well as just about every other stat imaginable. Some things I learned in a quick tour:
- Edwin Jackson has induced 22 grounded into double plays, last year he had 12, the next highest on the team is Matt Garza with 18.
- Evan Longoria takes more strikes looking than B.J. Upton but strikes out slightly less looking.
- Grant Balfour is even more dominant than I thought, (2.12 tRA and 40% of his plate appearances ending in strikeouts.)
- A ton of people get hit by pitches in the Trop, so much so the park factor is 1.16!(!)
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Nice...
Looking forward to educating myself more. Does is have a measurement for “lazy”.
Sounds interesting
any stat where BJ looks better than Evan must make you smile
And I think RJ was comparing BJ to Longoria...
Only to show how stupid it is to complain about his K’s, when Longoria is right there with him…yet you never hear the local media get on Longoria for striking out.
If Beejus hustled more they wouldn't have to get on him
I’m just saying he couldn’t lazy his way out of a lazy bag.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 14, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
When BJ becomes the run producer Longo is
they’ll love him
walks simply don’t fill ballparks like they used to
Getting on base is a huge part of producing runs. Nobody does it better on this team than B.J.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 14, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I like you RJ
btw, those stats are fun
i checked Cliff Lee, wow is his year an abberration or what?
our rotation's tRA (league average 4.71, so it shoud be about .30 runs higher than ERA)
3.81 Sonny
3.85 Kazmir
3.91 Shields
4.47 Garza
5.51 Jackson
For all of the people who claim that Sonny pitches to contact too much and Jackson has the ability to induce batted balls that are turned into outs more often, tRA is a good argument against that. Instead of just using K, B, and HR (or GB) to compute an estimated ERA, it also distinguishes between outfield FBs and infield FBs (the second being better) and includes line-drive rate (which fall for hits about 80 of the time).
And, to be clear, this is a measure of the actual results from 2008. tRA is not a projection. It does not account for some ways a pitcher could be “lucky” or “unlucky”. It’s just what you would have expected each pitcher’s ERA to be given how batters have hit or not hit the ball.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
I'd be willing to bet
Guys with OPS above .800 nail Sonny much harder than Jackson. There are a lot of fringy major leaguers out there, and guys with good fastballs generally can get them out. I still think there’s a lot more than luck to Sonny’s relatively bad ERA, and that his BABIP and FIP SLG are high for a reason.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
i agree with this
I still think there’s a lot more than luck to Sonny’s relatively bad ERA, and that his BABIP and FIP SLG are high for a reason.
But probably to a lesser degree than you do. We really need to have some smart people look into things like this — Dave Pinto’s PMR is a good way to do it, as his data can tell the difference between different types of line drives or flyballs.
Wild ass guess, if something like tRA or xFIP puts Sonny at a true-talent 3.75 ERA and Jackson at a 5.00 ERA, I might say Sonny’s more like a 4.15 ERA guy and Jackson’s more like a 4.60 ERA guy. What’s your wild ass guess?
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 14, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
It's doable
Someone just needs to run a multivariate ANOVA on pitchFx vs BABIP and SLGA. I just don’t have the programs to do it, nor do I remember how to run a mANOVA anymore.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
here's what PMR says
Dave Pinto’s system calculates the probability that every batted ball gets turned into an out, and can somewhat differentiate between different line drives, groundballs, etc. True BABIP obviously isn’t as telling as true SLGBIP, but this is still informative.
In 2007, here are some pitcher’s expected DERs (league-average among all starters listed in about .686). A higher expected DER means the pitcher gives up balls that turn into outs more often (either because of skill or other reasons, like more FBs than GBs.)
James Shields 0.693
Andy Sonnanstine 0.686
Scott Kazmir 0.671
Edwin Jackson 0.651
Surprisingly, Jackson had a really low expected DER and Sonnanstine was above average. That goes against Brickhaus’ hypothesis that I (and most Rays fans it seems) agree with.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 14, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
typo -- Sonnanstine was *average*
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 14, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Someone with more statistical program acumen than I
should try putting something together to see if there’s any correlation between pitchFx data and BABIP. I suspect there’s more to it than has been proposed, and now that 2 years of pitchFx data is available, someone should be able to test the hypothesis as to whether BABIP really is luck.
I still think it isn’t.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
it's not luck, and I don't think many of the hardcore folks think it is
Major league pitchers just show a small difference in BABIP skill. Why? For one, if you’re much worse than .310 in BABIP, you’ll never be any good, because balls are put into play all the time and a small difference in BABIP results in a huge difference in ERA. Pitchers that stick in the majors have a true BABIP skill close to .300. Second, (and this is a hunch only), one way to get a lower BABIP is to not throw many (hittable) strikes. That means throwing a lot of balls, meaning you’re going to walk a lot of guys. Keeping BABIP down isn’t worth that trade-off. Although pitcher’s with better stuff can post lower BABIPs (think knuckleballers). Also, relievers post better BABIPs than starters, and starters are better pitchers overall — therefore when pitchers bring better stuff (as they can just pitching an inning at a time), BABIP is lower.
On the “yes it is luck” side you’ve got the fact that there’s a LOT of statistical variation in a year’s worth of data, especially since BABIP is highly dependent on fielders and ballpark. By regressing a pitcher’s BABIP to .300 (or most of the way to .300), you’re removing all/most of the flukiness and only some of a pitcher’s true talent BABIP. That’s a good trade-off, but as you’ve mentioned, we’ve gone too far. We need to pick out the true-talent BABIP somehow.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 14, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
For a guy who throws as hard as Jackson
his H/IP ratio is terrible
I said it backwards
I think Jackson gets out fringe major leaguers, but guys who can catch up with a 94 mph fastball smash it because it has little deception. Some guys make a heck of a living mostly getting the crappy hitters out though, and vice versa.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Whereas
I think Sonny’s fastball gets hit at a higher rate because even the guys with fringy batspeed can turn on it, but he’s better at getting the good hitters out because he can actually mix his pitches.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
But his control is truly amazing
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
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