Percival to DL; The Juice is Loose
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 14, 2008 11:40 PM EDT
Email
PrintJuan Salas aka The Juice:
52 K, 10 BB, 2 HR in 42.2 IP
There are no alternatives.
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Has to be Juice. Perfect opportunity to get him on the playoff roster.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Nope
He’s still a better option than Hammel
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 14, 2008 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
But he's used in a worse positon.
Percival getting hurt moves him out of the closer role which he shouldn’t be in. Hammel getting hurt does nothing, it cuts off the last guy in the pen. I’d say Percy going down helps more.
So you think
That this injury isn’t going to mean more innings in high leverage situations for Miller/Hammel? I don’t buy it
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 14, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe slightly
But only if the reliever they add is placed at the bottom of the totem pole. That isn’t a guarantee since Balfour jumped to high leverage spots pretty quickly. I imagine Hammel and Miller stay and the new reliever takes the spot above them.
Not at all
I far prefer Balfour closing, but Percival is a solid bullpen component. I’ll take Percival over Miller and Hammel any day.
if [someone, probably Balfour] holds down the closer role during Percival's absence...
what are the chances that [someone, probably Balfour] keeps it when Percival returns?
10%?
not that tonight helped Balfour’s case.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
I thought Balfour should have had it before...
If he continues to pitch similarly than he should keep it. His K numbers are just too amazing to hold down much longer.
If he converts all his save chances and doesn't struggle with control
He will probably be given the closer’s role full time. My fantasy team will be very happy if this happens too. My guess is they will let Wheeler get chances too.
as will mine...
considering I just picked him up today
Mound Visit
by Mound Visit on Aug 15, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
5% maybe
I’ve said it before, you don’t take someone’s job away just because they give you a little heartburn. He’s doing the job, he’s done it all year; taking it away is foolish.
The only way I see him losing it is if they just decide he’s too fragile to be a reliable closer; in that case he might as well not be in the bullpen at all.
he's not reliable
he’s allowed more runs than you want to see from your closer. just because those runs have come when they don’t hurt as much doesn’t mean that good fortune will continue.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Everybody has a bad night once in a while.
F-Rod has blown four saves. Doesn’t mean the Angels are going to strip his closer role.
Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
by Orlando Rays on Aug 15, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Percival's leg issues
Has to not just do with his age, but his weight, he’s packing too much a midsection and it shows when he has to field a ball why he is so fragile.
Word is coming out of Durham.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Yeah, thats what I've gotten so far..
Just figured a blog would have picked it up by now… This is the internet after all.
ohh he mustve cleaned out his durham locker
Longo=ROY. Friedman=Executive of the year. Maddon=Manager of the year. BJ UPTON IS NOT LAZY! ! ! Gabe Gross= clutch. David Price is the next big time pitcher.
Percival
I think fans are too hard on Percival. He is not the pitcher he was, but he is not a disaster either. Fact is, predictably his BB rate is up from his career average and his K rate down, but neither is awful. Prior to this year he walked 3.77/9. As a strikeout pitcher he could get away with that. This year, after tonight, he is walking 4.19/9, a decline to be expected. But that ratio is skewed by 3 games in which he walked 4, 2 and 2 in 3 innings. Otherwise, in his 40 appearances, he had no walks in 28 of them. Although it seems he has walked someone every game recently, in his 9 appearances prior to tonight, he walked nobody in 6 of them. He does seem to start his first batter off with 3 balls each time, which may account for the sense that he is wild.
And his K/BB rate is still about 2-1. Again, his K rate is down from his career average, but at 8.3/9 is still pretty good. The more troublesome issue has been his propensity to fly balls, also not unusual for his career however. And his line drive rate is down if I read the stats correctly.
Overall, his results have been good, and if his peripherals do suggest that he has been somewhat lucky and is not as good as the results suggest, he still can be a useful pitcher if healthy. I would be glad to get him back and hope this gives Maddon an opportunity, now and when he does return, to use the bullpen more flexibly, sharing the so-called closer role and using pitchers according to situations rather than in stereotyped roles.
The potential advantage of the injury it seems to me is not the loss of Percival. That is a real loss. It is that we may have 3 or 4 pitchers who can be used to shut down the opposition (Balfour, Howell, Wheeler and Salas if he is the replacement), but none of them have the stature or the right to claim the title of closer. If they are used interchangeably, when Percival comes back, it may be easier to slot him into the same bullpen structure which would increase his usefulness and decrease the danger of depending on him exclusively.
by bobr on Aug 14, 2008 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Good insight
I was thinking pretty much the same thing. Percival has a 90% save rate. That ranks him 5th of all players with more than 10 save opportunities. He is ahead of Jenks, Papelbon, and BJ Ryan. He may put runners on, but he nearly always converts the save regardless. That is the beauty of him in the true “closer role.” You can bring him in with no runners on and no outs, and all he has to do is get three guys out without giving up between 1-3 runs. You allow your more effective BP arms to pitch the higher leverage situations.
save rate is an awful stat
it depends on four things:
- a pitcher’s ability to prevent runs
- the fielders abilities to prevent runs
- the size of the leads a closer is given
- the distribution of runs allowed given #1 and #3
a pitcher can control only #1. Percival is not that great at #1. just because he’s nearly always converted saves so far this season doesn’t mean Percival has some skill where he converts saves at a high rate.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
The point of save rate
Was to counter all those that claim he blows too many. The important thing that you forgot is that Percy is best at the role he is currently in. He is faced with less high-leverage situations. Why waste Balfour’s talents in what often amounts to mop-up duties. I am not extolling Percy as the BP ace. I am merely saying that he has not hurt the team in his role as closer, as some here suggest.
but he WILL hurt the team as closer, if he remains there
if you go look at Fangraphs Leverage Index stat (LI), you’ll see that Percival has been the Rays reliever who’s been in the most important situations this year. Wheeler is close behind, then Balfour and Howell are a ways back. While it might seem that closers are often wasted in easy saves, it’s actually a bit overrated, and they tend to be used as the most important reliever.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
what do you mean by tougher?
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Rays postseason is looking good!
We have 19home games left and 17away games!
We got 3 at and 3 home against the Sox and Yanks!
If we can win both series against Boston 2-1 we’re in, assuming we win a series against Yanks.
Make it a concert night on all Boston games because we are 8-0 on concert nights!
They do it all with gills!
If I'm wrong please just tell me because i may have mis read my pocket schedule wrong
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
thanks i new I must've been wrong cause i thought we had more away game
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
The Cups Half Full!
This gives Balfour time to adjust to the closers role throughout the rest of the season. The timing couldn’t be any more perfect.
Member R.J. was giving the stats on how many ganes will we be accumulated to loose because of Evan and CC
Well Percival’s is probably like like, we’ll win an extra game and a half
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Percival is vastly under rated
the nature of the close makes each of his appearences more scrutinized than any other RP
And the Rays have not lost any of his 3 BS
The thing with him is when he's good he's just average and he's bad 30% of the time
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Stopping making up numbers it makes you look as dumb as your grammar.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 15, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Rays struggles on the road
have been greatly exaggerated. They have consistently been in the top 1/4 of the majors in road record, better for example than Boston. And their sub-.500 record is skewed somewhat by their 0-6 record in Fenway. Now that counts too, I know, but apart from the Fenway problem, one shared by just about every team, they have generally been above .500 on the road this year.
Balfour's the Guy!!!
Time for Balfour to step up. A month ago when Percy was on the DL, Maddon issued a closer-by-committee proclamation. I think this time, Balfour gets the job. Not sure how Salas makes life any better. I don’t see why they wouldn’t bring in Thayer. Take Birkins off the 40-man to make room for him.
Because
Salas: 10.97 K/9, 2.11 BB/9 42.7 GB%
Thayer: 10.09 K/9 2.80 BB/9 43.9 GB%
There’s really no difference in their numbers this year, but Salas has the slight edge in Ks and walks and is all ready on the 40 man.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 15, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
That, and
Salas has stuff that is proven to get out major league hitters, Thayer (unless he’s suddenly hitting 97 like I’ve seen one or two yutzes say, but which is contrary to everyone I’ve talked to who has watched Durham play this season) has very fringy stuff, typical of a AAAA type player. Then again, so does Brad Ziegler and he just tied the record for most consecutive scoreless innings thrown by a reliever, so what do I know….
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Does Thayer have any delivery quirks that you know of?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 15, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Why does everyone think the best reliever should close?
Balfour’s been our best reliever and he’s been coming into the game at the game’s most critical moment.
Whether that is the 7th inning with the bases loaded or another point in the game, i wouldn’t want to see Percival come in those situations.
In fact, the closer comes into the game almost every time with the bases empty. To me that is a way to waste Balf’s talent.
9 = 8
not true, I think Howell is better but he does long relief.
we want Balfour because he averages over 2k’s per inning and has been lights out
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
2 K's per inning, huh?
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Stop making up numbers
fer Beejus sakes.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 15, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly, wheeler will take Balfour's old spot and Salas will come in after were winning by like 3
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm not sure what youre saying?
you want balfour to come into the game with the bases empty every time like percival or do you like him coming into the game in the 7th inning with the bases loaded and A-Rod up?
9 = 8
The second 1 but Bradford would come in there
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Who do you think should close than?
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
it's not that we demand Balfour closes we just don't like Percy
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Not really,
he blows to many, Pena and Gross have saved his ass a lot though
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you read anything?
He converts 90% of his save opportunities. That is better than all but 4 guys with more than 10 SOs. Look at the facts before you make incorrect statements.
Well he doesn't blow a lot of saves and he comes in with 2, 3 runs a lot
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
You said "he blows to many"
referring to saves.
Well he doesn’t blow a lot of saves and he comes in with 2, 3 runs a lot
That is his role. He is most effective in this role. That is the point about keeping him in this role. Why waste someone else in this role if they excel at higher leveraged roles?
Ya but when we are up by only 1 I'd rather have Balfour or Wheeler
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
You sir are a fucking idiot
Eat some poison and crawl into a hole somewhere.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 15, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
please stop using this stat
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
it directly counters his claim
If someone says he walks too many you look at walk-rate. If someone says he blows too many you look at save rate. I am not justifying his abilities as a pitcher. I am justifying his role as the guy that comes in with the bases loaded with a lead.
You don't like Percy
We have lost 3 games out of 41 that he has made an appearance
LINK
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 15, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
that's not a good way to judge Percival's value going forward.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Percival will be off the roster for Salas and then Miller for Price if he comes up
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Price will be good against everyone but im just guessing miller
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
o
I didn’t know we brought up Ryu?
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
no, we didnt...but he's on the 40 man, and i think we can sneek price into the playoff roster (if we make it) by switching him for Ryu cause Ryu is injured.
can someone confirm this?
9 = 8
That would sound pretty good
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Roster expansions are Sept. 1st so then we can hold most of them
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
You have to be a parody
Please go away. They tried to ban you but you keep making new accounts.
RJ, can you ban his ISP? This is so annoying. He just derails every thread.
I'm just giving my opinion
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
You can't always go by stats
Jamie Moyer is 8-1 career against Marlins but I’d rather have Brandon Webb against the Marlins
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
He got banned for being an ass, not for being annoying
Right now he’s not being an ass, and he hasn’t been an ass since he got his alts banned.
o, my bad i thought you meant me
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Just ignore his comments.
Banning for being annoying would get ridiculous and the admins would get accused of playing favorites.
If you spams or does the off-topic replying thing he’ll be banned. Again.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 15, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
given that Maddon will use a closer, the highest leverage relief role will be the closer
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
The closer comes into almost every game with the bases empty. IMO, that is a waste of Balfour's talent.
What do you all think?
9 = 8
Yes, but the closer is relied on to get through the inning easily with out a run, percy's not getting it done but I see your point
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
does Percival have a "getting out of it" skill?
or will all those baserunners, flyballs, and runs catch up to him? I’m going with number two.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
So what you're saying is...
We should throw some schumck out there to walk the bases loaded to make better use of Balfour’s talent of getting out of jams?
by floridaroar on Aug 15, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd take Wheeler at closer to
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd rank our bp arms..
1. Balfour
2. Howell
3. Wheeler
4. Bradford
5. Percival (I’d say Bradford and Percival are just about equal)
6. Salas
7. Hammel
8. Miller
I don’t want the best guy closing, but I also do not want #5 on the totem pole closing either. I want like #3 or maybe #2 closing leaving #1 for the middle of the game high leverage situations.
by matthan on Aug 15, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I would hold off on Salas
He is very good, and he might be even better than Percy or Bradford. Where would you have ranked Balfour before he came up and ran shit? That’s sort of how I feel about Salas.
It can't be Howell because he does long relief, but the Yanks and Sox do that and has worked for them
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Ya but Howell does to when were not winning by a lot like 1 or 2
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
He used to pitch like 3 at a time
They do it all with gills!
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 15, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
please read this if you think setup guys pitch in higher leverage situations than closers
Summary: Of the 25 relievers to appear in the highest leverage situations, only three have not saved at least 14 games. Every non-closer on that list has appeared in lower leverage situations than the closer on his team.
Closers are not the most efficient use of a bullpen ace. But given that a team is going to use the traditional closer-setup guy bullpen model, the closer is the highest leverage role.
(Sorry to link to my own stuff, but it’s directly relevant.)
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
google hardball times
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
so you want to keep your best pitcher for a few really high leverage situations...
instead of more moderately high leverage situations?
in which situations does Balfour pitch when those bases-loaded, no-out situations don’t present themselves?
listen, i agree that Balfour’s usage pattern should consist of a lot of seventh and eighth inning important situations. but assuming he’s not also going to be used in ninth-inning one- and two-run leads, he has more value as the closer. even though he’ll be “wasted” in easy saves sometimes
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
he'd be the fifth guy out of the bullpen.
Balfour
Howell/Wheeler/Bradford (used based on matchups — lefty/righty/groundball)
Percival
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It is actually really simple
During the game you match the difficulty of the situation with the strength of the reliever. Over the course of the game you may use your best guys, or you may not depending on the situation. Your best reliever may pitch in the 7th or the 9th it just depends on the situation.
i agree, too
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
in which situations does Balfour pitch when those bases-loaded, no-out situations don’t present themselves?
IMO, he should not pitch in those games, or if it’s close in the 9th, he should close it out
9 = 8
last time, please pay attention
I AGREE WITH YOU. This is how I want the best reliever in the Rays’ bullpen to be used.
However, if we assume that Maddon’s not going to go this route (what are the chances Maddon wakes up and becomes the first manager in twenty years not to have a designated closer?), Balfour has more value in the traditional closer’s role than any type of set-up role.
Again, I agree with you in an ideal situation. In reality — where Maddon is manager — Balfour is better as the closer.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 15, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Salas needs to come up and dominate from now until the end of time
so the autographed jersey I won in the Shirts Off Their Backs drawing last year will be worth some bucks. As you see, it’s all about me.
per Rotoworld
Rays recalled RHP Juan Salas from Triple-A Durham.
Salas replaces Troy Percival in the bullpen after going 4-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 53/11 K/BB ratio in 44 2/3 innings at Triple-A. He’s already 29 years old, so there isn’t much long-term upside to be had, but he’s capable of being a solid middle reliever.
He's Dominican, right?
He may actually be 32 or 33….
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