Recap: That was not fun.

by P Brady on Aug 17, 2008 11:55 PM EDT Comment 83 comments

BJ Upton had a very nice return, flashing some opposite field power and a nice double. Pena went deep with a 3 run bomb and is still as hot as anyone in the league right now. Gabe Gross is still getting key hits, which is always encouraging now that he'll get more playing time. Bartlett's been pretty good in the 2nd half so far, hitting a very good .315/.363/.463. Will he able to keep this up? Probably not, but its nice to see him warm up off of a very bad 1st half.

Scot Kazmir had a very encouraging start, besides the 2nd and 5th innings, he was vintage Kazmir. Striking guys out and going 6(!) innings! The walks were still there, but his control overall was better. Juice looks like a decent pen piece for the 6th/7th inning or when we are behind. Won't lose any games but isn't as good as a Balfour or a Wheeler or Howell. I refuse to comment on the last inning.

Random Musings:

Josh Hamilton is not Barry Bonds, you do not IBB him there.
Ruggs is the new Gross, late inning replacement.
Bring your dog night is an awful promotion,
Chad Bradford is good.
7-3 Roadtrip! WOOOOOOOO

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If Barty can be decent with his batting

I will gladly take that. His defense is great.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 18, 2008 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very nice recap

I can’t imagine bringing my dog to a baseball game. Where does the dog pee? At the seat? WTF?

Hate to do this, but the walks were still “there” (not “their” so much). Grammar ninja strikes again!

by stpetelawyer on Aug 18, 2008 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

;_;

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 18, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I realize this is not the proper forum

but did anyone see the Mexican kid that threw a perfect game in the LLWS and hit a grand slam in the same game?!?

by stpetelawyer on Aug 18, 2008 12:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes. It owned.

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 18, 2008 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry STP, i disagree. You don't have a righty pitch to Hamilton with the bases loaded with Marlyn Byrd on deck.

And i’m not just saying that cause it worked, if you look at the GDT, i said he should IBB Hambone before they did it.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you gotta make make marlyn byrd beat you, not hamilton.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but, still no reason to take Salas out of that game so early, imo.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not Barry Bonds. There's not a 50% chance he gets on base. He's not the best hitter alive. You don't IBB him there no matter who is pitching.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Aug 18, 2008 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This.

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 18, 2008 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hamilton may not be Barry Bonds...

But Byrd is not Josh Hamilton. Ask yourself this question: Would you rather face Josh Hamilton with the bases loaded and a four run lead or Marlon Byrd with the bases loaded and a three run lead?

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Aug 18, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why the name change?

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Aug 18, 2008 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No no no no

It was the wrong move w/o question.

The question isn’t who would we rather face with the game on the line. The question needs to be what move gives the Rays the highest probability of winning. Clearly the best move is to pitch to Hamilton.

If you pitch to Hamilton the only way you can lose is if Hamilton gets on base then Byrd hits a bomb (or he gets on base and the next guy hits a bomb etc). By walking Hamilton you essentially give them the first portion of that chain of events for free.

Even if Hamilton hits a game tying home run the Rays still have about a 50% chance of winning.

Hamilton has hit a home run in 5.8% of his at bats this year. Byrd has hit a home run in 2.9% of his at bats this season.

by matthan on Aug 18, 2008 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

If the game was decided solely on probabilities...

We’d be in last place.

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Aug 18, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

-sigh-

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Aug 18, 2008 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you can also lose if hamilton hits a bomb and the game goes to extra innings

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 18, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Giving away runs is retarded under any circumstance.

Odds are still against him getting on base.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Aug 18, 2008 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AND the odds are against Byrd doing anything productive

The Rays had a very good chance of winning the game with or without an IBB to Hamilton. That’s not the issue. The issue is which situation yields the BETTER chance of winning the game.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 18, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The odds of losing the game are greater if you IBB Hamilton.

Case closed.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Aug 18, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not exactly

Betting on 23 instead of betting on black is always a worse bet, except the time you hit 23. Overall, it’s a far worse strategy, but sometimes the strategy works out much better to make the wrong choice. No way of knowing what would have happened if they had pitched to Hammy, but it’s possible the team could have lost, and they won with making the wrong move.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 18, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

would you please explain how you came to that conclusion?

because that’s the entire point of this discussion.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 18, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not taking sides here

However, you HAVE to run the numbers in order to make a decision like this. Fangraphs lists the Hamilton IBB as +5% WPA for the Rangers — that’s not good, but it’s not huge, and it assumes average hitters/pitchers. Given that Hamilton’s a much better hitter than Byrd AND had the platoon advantage, the move had less than a 5% influence on the outcome on the game. Whether it’s a positive or negative move comes down to the details and arguing about it with rhetoric and intuition won’t get us anywhere. Run the numbers.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 18, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Attack where your enemy is weak

retreat where he is strong. I have no problem with it whether we win or lose. With that lead even if Byrd hits a single the game is not over. If Hamilton hits it out we’re tied. Pick your battles.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 18, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But the point is...

There was a 0% chance Hamilton could beat the Rays….all he could do was tie the game. Byrd, on the other hand, could tie the game with a double or triple, and win the game with a HR. There is a reason why no one has done that in the past 60 years(minus Bonds).

FUnny thing is, Bonds had a better SLG% last year then Hammy does now. If Maddon feels Hammy is that dangerous, why isnt Bonds on this team now. But that is the same debate we’ve had ad nauseum.

by td32 on Aug 18, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Before Hamilton's PA, the Rays had at least a 90% chance of winning the game.

If Hamilton hits a bomb, that drops to about 50%. That is very costly. And possibly worth avoiding. Hamilton could not IMMEDIATELY beat the Rays, but he could do something that severely diminished their chances of winning the game.

Again, we need to run the numbers.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 18, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure what Bonds has to do with this anyway...

Unless there was a chance Milton Bradley was coming in to pinch hit, you have to walk Hambone to face Byrd.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

especially with a righty on the mound.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you are so worried about righty/lefty bring in JP or Miller to pitch to Hamilton

You dont intentionally bring the winning run to the plate

Like was said before the only way the Rangers can beat us with Hamilton coming up is if he gets on and than Byrd does something, Hamilton cant beat us on his own. We gave them the first part of what could have been a win for free. Everyone is looking at homeruns but if you break it down even further you can look at it this way as far as possible outcomes

Pitch to Hamilton

single- 1-2 runs score, tying run on first, winning run to the plate
walk- 1 run scores, tying run on first, winning run to the plate
double- 2-3 runs score, tying run on 2nd, winning run to the plate
triple-3 runs score, tying run on 3rd, winning run to the plate
home run- tie game, winning run to the plate

walk Hamilton and pitch to Byrd

single- 1-2 runs score, tying run on 2nd or 3rd, winning run on first
walk- 1 run scores, tying run on 2nd, winning run on 1st.
double- 2-3 runs score, tying run on 3rd or tie game, winning run on 2nd
triple- tie game, winning run on 3rd
home run- game over

and either case an out ends the game. While yes Hamilton is without a doubt the better hitter, there are just so many more way in which walking Hamilton to bring up the winning run and putting the tying run on base can do more harm than good.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 18, 2008 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you bring in Miller

he probably hits Hammy first pitch so you are in the same scenario.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 18, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We won, WHO CARES!

You can whine all you want about what was the right move, but can’t argue with the result. Who are you as simple FANS to question Joe Maddon’s decision. What’s your MLB experience?
Joe Maddon is one of the smartest men in Baseball. I trust him fully in his decision making. Look where he’s gotten us this year. From worst to first in one year?! If any of you thought we’d be where we are now at the start of the season you are a true homer. I’ll admit i had high expectations for this team, maybe two games over .500, but thats about it.
The man has earned the right to make whatever decisions he wants with respect to this team. He’s gotten us this far, lets let him make his own decisions (no matter how bad you think them to be) and see where else he can take us.

by TampaRayNation on Aug 18, 2008 4:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And btw...

…I agree with the decision to walk Hamilton.

by TampaRayNation on Aug 18, 2008 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just because he is a very smart manager, and has done an incredible job this year

Doesn’t mean he will never make a mistake or that as fans we cant second guess his decisions. I think Maddon should be the hands down Manager of the year for what he has done, I just didn’t agree with his move last night.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 18, 2008 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Results based analysis at its finest.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 18, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with you on Hamilton

Some good news, Percy may be back in two weeks, w/o surgery

by sternfan1 on Aug 18, 2008 6:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's Good News?

With Percy on the Hill last night (in the spot that Balfour pitched) Maddon would have let him finish with the loss. Percy doesn’t win that game. Secondly, the Rangers finally got patient at the plate in the 9th. That combined with some inexperienced big leage experience in Salas, an off night by Balfour, and you set that situation up. I agree you walk Hamilton. I would have done it. It was the right move. You don’t give him a chance to tie the game with one swing of the bat with a pitcher on the mound that is having control issues. All he has to do is wait for the fat pitch. He would have gotten it. If you play by percentages you are not taking into account the the human aspect of the game as in Is a pitcher “off” or “on” at the time. If baseball were played by percentages and statistics, why even field a team and pay players, lets just break out the slide rules and calculators at the beginning of the season and give away the trophy.

… Just my two pennies.

by PewterPirate55 on Aug 18, 2008 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Percy

for all the bitching on this site about percy, they sure made it look tough last night. it took 3 pitchers, 2 runs, baseloaded to get outta the ninth. Its real easy to say a guy looks good in the 7th and 8th, so lets make him the closer, its alot different when your out there in the 9th. 2 blown saves in 25 appearances isnt bad.

BOHICA

by Mr. Tonight TB on Aug 18, 2008 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love how all the Percy haters are quick to

predict ‘what would have happened’

Balfour is not the re incarnation of Mariano Riviera

There’s a reason he’s 30 yo and still hasn’t pitched a full season in MLB. Last night you saw why, he has trouble locating at times. Hell he had problems puting Hamilton on

by sternfan1 on Aug 18, 2008 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Balfour is not the re incarnation of Mariano Riviera

This.

THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS M’F’in THIS.

by kericr on Aug 18, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am merely saying Maddon would not have pulled Percy like he did Balfour.

I think Percy has done a great job this year. I am not a Percy hater just a nailbiter when he comes into the game. I know he is normally always going to allow one base runner. I just see Percy having more control issues this year than Balfour. Balfour last night had just an off night. He will be a good closer for this team. That being said … I could also see him staying in the role he is currently in and Ejax moving to a closer role next year. With Price being called up. I do think this is Percy’s last year.

by PewterPirate55 on Aug 18, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You should make it clear next time between saying that 'Maddon would have left Percival in the game' versus 'Maddon would have left Percival in the game, and let him finish with the loss'

Because you actually said the latter, not the former, which is what Sternfan is arguing with you about.

by kericr on Aug 18, 2008 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

Maddon has pulled Percival when he has struggled. Perhaps he is less likely to, but he has made it clear that he will.

Also, while I agree that Percival’s BB rate is a bit high, there are two considerations. One, it has always been high, even at his peak, and is only slightly worse this year than it usually is. Since he is still striking people out, although again at a slightly lower rate than at his peak, the walks have not been as harmful as they might ordinarily be.

More important, I think, is that the rate is skewed by 3 multiple walk appearances, when he allowed 2, 2 & 4 BBs. Otherwise, although he has often fallen behind his initial batter, he has not been walking that many. In those other 38 appearances, covering 35 2/3 innings he has walked just 10. As a matter of fact, after last night, Balfour’s BB rate is slightly worse than Percival’s. And given that Balfour has always had far more serious control problems, I remain more concerned when he can’t find the plate than when Percival can’t.

I also reiterate that while I think that it was statistically wrong to walk Hamilton, I also think that is not necessarily the final word on the subject. Maddon commented that he did not like the Wheeler/ Hamilton matchup, and in the sequence to Byrd, Wheeler did hang a pitch that Byrd fouled back. Would he have thrown a pitch like that to Hamilton and would Hamilton have missed it too? No way to know, but Maddon did not like that matchup (and may have had reason not to use Howell as well) and no matter what the abstract reasoning might say, he may have been right.

by bobr on Aug 18, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i only remember percival being pulled when he was injured

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because he hasn't been healthy since 2004?

It’s quite a knee jerk reaction to think Balfour can’t do Percival’s job based on one bad outing.

by RATW on Aug 18, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is equally knee-jert to think he CAN based on 1/2 a season of good work.

by kericr on Aug 18, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1/2 season vs. one outing is not equal.

by RATW on Aug 18, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

But that’s not my point. My point is it’s rediculous to call for Balfour to replace Percival just because Balfour has done a good job in 1/2 a season of work when Percival has done the job adequately all year. I’m not saying anything about him messing up last night.

by kericr on Aug 18, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it worked therefore it was the right move.

simple as that, game over

BOHICA

by Mr. Tonight TB on Aug 18, 2008 7:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow, that's a scary philosphy

by stpetelawyer on Aug 18, 2008 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's awful reasoning, but, i think it was the right move because Byrd is not Hamilton.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh boy

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 18, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fail

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Aug 18, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do not like intentional walks in general

and have been critical when Maddon did it twice earlier this year and it backfired each time. In both cases I thought he was dead wrong and said so before the poor results.

I also agree with the view that walking Hamilton gave the advantage to the Rangers-not to win the game as the win probability was still low but improved the odds for them had they simply pitched to Josh.

But I do think this may be a time when pure statistical analysis has to concede some space to managerial instincts or in-the-moment decision making. It is possible many options occurred to Maddon based on his observations about how Hamilton was swinging, what kind of stuff his pitcher had and what he thought he could expect from Wheeler or Howell should he bring one of them in.

In that sense, while it may not have made sense from a purely statistical vantage, it may have made sense based on the specific circumstances Maddon was considering. For example, he might have been considering both Wheeler’s and Howell’s tendency occasionally to be a bit wild which might have meant either a fat pitch or an unintentional walk that could have made them more tentative to the next batter.

I still do not think it was the right decision, but also think we might be less dogmatic about what would have been right. On the bench at the moment, a manager may know what is technically right yet choose another option based on less tangible factors and still make a reasonable decision.

by bobr on Aug 18, 2008 8:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But I do think this may be a time when pure statistical analysis has to concede some space to managerial instincts or in-the-moment decision making. It is possible many options occurred to Maddon based on his observations about how Hamilton was swinging, what kind of stuff his pitcher had and what he thought he could expect from Wheeler or Howell should he bring one of them in.

I agree with that.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Aug 18, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Someone posted Hammy has a 5.8% HR rate...

While Byrd has a 2.9%. You need to factor in Byrd’s double and triple rate into the equation. I’m not sure where that data is available, but I’m sure when you add up his double, triple, and HR rates, they are much higher then Hammy’s rates.

The move worked out, but it doesnt mean it was the correct decision.

by td32 on Aug 18, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow, I was actually about to look that up

And you are exactly right. The most Hamilton could do is tie the game with a home run and Byrd could ahve done the exact same thing with a double, triple or a home run.

Byrd hits a double, triple or a home run in 10.5% of his at bats.

Someone can easily run the probabilities of each scenario if they are so inclined. However, the end result is very obvious. You do not IBB anyone with the bases loaded.

Another thing people keep mentioning is that we still won. Well just a FYI but Maddon could have intentionally walked Hamilton, Byrd, and the next hitter and we still would have likely have won. The process was poor.

by matthan on Aug 18, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regarding Marlon Byrd not being Josh Hamilton

Your right. He has been much better than Josh Hamilton of late. In the 30 games prior to last night, Marlon Byrd was .366/.441/.607/1.048 and Hammy was .290/.376/.493/.869. Hamilton is still the more dangerous player, but he’s not swinging the stick quite as well as he did earlier in the season, and Byrd has been hot. Hamilton does KILL fastballs, the only pitch Balfour throws.

by rglass44 on Aug 18, 2008 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wheeler was coming in after the walk to Young though

It was not going to be Grant v Hamilton. The walk was just so Wheeler wouldn’t have to come in and immediately throw 4 balls.

by matthan on Aug 18, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

these last 30 game splits are next to irrelevant.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 18, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who cares anyway

We made up another game on BOS after a 7-3 west coast swing!!!!!!!

by rglass44 on Aug 18, 2008 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't mean it's not worth debating

Statistically, it was the wrong move. But from a gut-check perspective, I might take my chances on Byrd anyway.

by kericr on Aug 18, 2008 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh and the Rays are now only 1 game under .500 on the road.

Which is a very very very good sign if you ask me.

by kericr on Aug 18, 2008 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea, Salas was yanked too fast.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 18, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

27 pitches after giving up a leadoff walk and hit is too fast?

Yeah I know he got the strikeout on the next batter, but you’re looking at a pitch count near 40 for a supposed 1 inning reliever by the time he’s done if you leave him in. I didn’t catch the 9th, but it looks to me that he was about done based on the box score.

by kericr on Aug 18, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs