DRaysBay: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Backing the Pack for NC State Fans!


If We Don't Die...

Okay, there's a hurricane coming, and I don't know how many of you are going to be here today, how long the power will be on, and everything else, so for those who made the trek here for (good) new content I'm sorry. But I did want to provide something that allowed for discussion.

Would you rather have a conventional closer system or a non-traditional relief ace system?

0 recs | Comment 58 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

This topic sucks...

But on behalf of the Fay surviors, I appreciate the effort from you RJ. And to humor you just a little… I say let’s play situational until it fails.

However, I’d rather discuss the number 34.

All things LONGORIA!

by RalphieTheRay on Aug 19, 2008 6:20 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why? we all know a hometown BOOOOOOOOO

is very unproductive. If we lose this thing, it’s all on you and people like you,

All things LONGORIA!

by RalphieTheRay on Aug 19, 2008 6:27 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm dissatisfied with this topic, so I won't be on the site at all today.

…and I’d rather have an actual hurricane day that allowed me a day off work over yet another series scare tactics by NOAA who couldn’t predict the path of a hurricane if it were on rails.

by kericr on Aug 19, 2008 6:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Since it left Cuba, it's been right on

problem is our local guys almost crave for the storm to hit

A hurricane is like Moe’s birthday on the Three Stooges for a meteorologist

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 7:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Since it left Cuba?

So you are saying they got it right once it was 100 miles from US landfall? Wow they are gooooooood.

The problem is Sunday afternoon it was supposed to hit around the panhandle. Maybe Pensacola/Tally. Then Sunday night they move it directly to Tampaish. Then Monday morning they move it down to Sarasota. Then Monday afternoon to Ft Myersish. Then it ends up hitting Naples.

That is nowhere near close. In a span of a day they were hundreds upon hundreds upon hundreds of miles off of where they predicted US landfall.

by matthan on Aug 19, 2008 8:40 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Our prediction was based on years of storm data...

and sound statistical analysis. Fay’s performance is questionable and clearly due for regression.

Sincerely, NOAA

by save_the_trop on Aug 19, 2008 8:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   2 recs

Don't cover for them they really

only use one stat.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 11:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

have fun getting wet today down in FL, we may get it later here in NC

as for the pen ?

I am a fan of pretty set roles. I know we have to nice problem of having multiple arms we can count on but I would still like to see some more consistency. Balfour has come in anywhere from the 6th to the 9th and while you cant blame his recent struggles on that, I am sure it would be a easier for him if he had a clear idea of when he might get in. JP is in a similar situation. We have seen him from anything from facing 1 batter to going 2-3 innings. While this situational thing works well, I am sure there is a pretty good reason for 100 years the majority of baseball teams have set closers for the 9th inning, 1 set up guy for the 8th and lefty/righty specialist for the 7th inning plus mop up guys. I would like to see once Percy gets back and Call-ups occur

9th-Percy
8th-Balfour
7th-Wheeler/Howell
6th-Salas/Miller
Mop-up- Hammel/Talbot/Birkins

by Dbullsfan on Aug 19, 2008 7:01 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

100 years?

what have you been watching?

the ‘save’ itself is probably ony 20+ years

And the thread i’m sure asks while Percy is out

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 7:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The save stat

was created in 1959 by Jerome Holtzman and adopted as an official stat 10 years later. But the notion of assigned roles, particularly specializing to the extent of having one pitcher reserved almost exclusively for the ninth inning is much more recent. Generally I have seen in credited to LaRussa who tended to limit Eckersley to the 9th inning beginning in 1988 or so, and then only if the As had a small lead.

For most of history, there were not even official relievers. Starters like Mordecai Brown and Lefty Grove would relieve on days between starts. Allie Reynolds shifted back and forth between starting and relieving pretty regularly. By the 1960s, there were more defined relievers like Arroyo, Brosnan and others, but into the 1980s, the relievers often went 3, 4 or 5 innings and sometimes more. In a way, Maddon is using Howell and Hammel a bit like the Yankees used Dick Tidrow who might go 1/3 of an inning one game and 4 the next. I attended a game that Tidrow pitched 10 2/3 innings of relief.

I really do not understand the need for defined roles. The role of any pitcher is pretty much the same; get outs and do not let runs score. Roles, it seems to me, should be determined by situations. You don’t expect some pitchers to provide more than an inning or two of work, and you want your best pitcher available for the most crucial situations, and I suppose it is possible (probable even) that some pitchers are less capable of handling the pressure of the ninth inning than others are (although that skill is likely exaggerated).

But otherwise, I would like to see evidence that Wheeler is better used in the 8th with a 2 run lead than in the 6th of a tie game, or that it is better to use Salas in the 6th of a tie game than in the 8th with a 2 run lead. Why would the inning matter to either? Their job is to stop runs from scoring.

It seems to me that the notion of assigned roles is a self-fulfilling prophesy in that pitchers are raised to believe they need the security of knowing when they will be used because they have been taught to need it. And additionally it is a prestige and contract issue in that relievers labeled closers get more money in contracts and are highlighted in game stories. So a manager cannot bring a Rivera or Hoffman in the game in the 6th inning even if it makes sense to do so. The agent would scream, the pitcher would be angry and if it backfired, the manager would have no place to hide.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 7:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

I'm with you on this on Bob.

The situation should dictate who comes in. If there is a flyball hitter up with RISP late in the game, I have no problem bringing Bradford in. Conversely, bringing in Wheeler against the Jays bottom part of the lineup is a good match as they’re all GB types which can’t expose his extreme FB tendencies. Play the matchups, play the numbers.

That said, there is something about having the “balls” to be on the bump in the 9th. There have been some solid bullpen pitchers who just fade as closers. Rafael Betancourt of the Indians and Juan Rincon are two guys that dominated in setup roles but absolutely sucked when given the opportunity to close. That’s where I give Percy credit. He may not have the best stuff in the pen, but he is not afraid to pitch in the 9th inning. So far, he’s the only one who doesn’t seem rattled by the situation. Balfour has at least 3 late inning disappointments and Wheeler has served up a few bombs to tie or lose games late.

by Jason Collette on Aug 19, 2008 8:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't doubt

there are some pitchers who have trouble closing, even if they are otherwise very good. I just think that particular ability is exaggerated in the press and by many fans. Every year middle relievers pop up who succeed very well as closers. While he was not outstanding, Wheeler did a decent job one year when he replaced Lidge in Houston. I imagine his failures were more due to his talent than to any psychological problem with the final 3 outs.

I also think the history of baseball is instructive in this matter. For many years starters finished more games than now. And for many years there were no designated closers, yet games got finished. I cannot believe that contemporary pitchers lack the fortitude of these earlier pitchers. If there is any substantive difference, it is taught not natural.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 9:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with pretty much everything posted here

Bobr, I am sure you are familliar with Baseball Prospectus’s Baseball Between the Numbers, but in that book that have a very interesting study of when you should use the BP ace.

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 9:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i actually do think relievers benefit from having defined roles

But do roles have to be “inning-score” combinations? Or can they be based on “importance”? Would major league relievers accept that a two-run ninth inning lead with no runners is just as important as a seventh-inning one run lead with runners on second and third? Could a reliever’s “role” be defined as his rank in the bullpen? Could you convince a traditional closer to give up his three-run saves in favor of some earlier appearances that are extremely important? Would he feel enough credit for getting his team out of a really tight jam?

My guess is that if the manager and organization explained things well enough, they could change the traditional roles into new, more useful roles, and the player’s would be on board.

The only reason why traditional closers might not be on board is because their save totals wouldn’t be as high, and they might not make as much money on future contracts.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 19, 2008 3:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes.

I think this is exactly the point. Even then, the ranking is not necessarily a simple 1-7. As someone pointed out, Bradford may be your 4th best reliever but needing a double play, you might prefer him to your number 2 in a tight situation.

I have thought for a couple of years that the Rays were in a position to do what you say better than most because they have not had someone with the prestige of a closer until signing Percival. Since nobody had an automatic “right” to the job nor had anyone a history of saves to protect their contract, it seemed to me the Rays might be more flexible. That is one area I have been disappointed; it seemed to me a lost opportunity. I doubt, for example, that the Yankees or Padres, or even teams with younger closers like Boston, could convince Rivera or Hoffman or Papelbon to give up the 9th inning, and certainly couldn’t convince their agents.

The misnamed “closer by committee” that Boston supposedly tried a few years ago and that was (stupidly?) blamed for the failure of that team may have doomed rational efforts in the direction you mention, at least for a while, especially since Foulke then seemed to demonstrate how important a designated closer was. The only way a closer loses his position now is if he is injured or totally ineffective, a la Gagne, but then a new one is crowned. It looks as if Wheeler may inherit the job that many had defaulted to Balfour, but there is still a chance that Maddon will be less rigid about that.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 4:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I live in Pinellas County

I went from a mandatory evacuation and a paid day off to no evacuation and having to work. sigh

by matthan on Aug 19, 2008 8:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Compelling discussion today

(YAAAAAAAAWN)

I’m sorry. What were we talking about?
I closed my office. Gave the staff the day off and am nursing a beautiful hangover after going to the game last night. I had to argue with about 10 fans about why we shoud NOT get rid of BJ. Fortunately, I was drunk and argumentative so I enjoyed every second of it.

Oh – situational reliever roles for me too

by stpetelawyer on Aug 19, 2008 9:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's wrong with BJ?

why such a rebellious attitude?

I too defended him on radio yesterday afternoon, but hard to rationalize what he did last night

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 9:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it was a bone headed mental error

i think it was just really bad timing for him. it really shoudln’t be blown out of proportion though. he thought it was a HR and it wasn’t. stupid – yah, but earth shattering – no. he’s a very good and potentially great player. he teammates (publically) don’t seem to have a problem with the guy.

man the fans in my section were rough on him though!

by stpetelawyer on Aug 19, 2008 9:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was worse than what he

did the other day, not running out the DP

WHen all time homer Todd Kalas and Stats call you out, it’s bad

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 10:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you think? I don't disagree, but I think it's an interesting question

If a batter doesn’t run out a long flyball and it drops one foot over the wall is that really much different from not running out a long flyball that drops one foot short of a homerun?

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 19, 2008 3:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It is easy to rationalize it

“Lazy BJ” = 2nd best player on the team

by matthan on Aug 19, 2008 9:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think it's laziness

i think it’s an aloofness and coolmess on his part

too bad

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 9:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Since this topic does blow how about Wade Townsend?

I see he had a really nice start the other day for VB

6 IP

1 ER 0-1 BB—I think

6 K

What a bonus that could be

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 9:54 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're not going to die.

Fay didn’t make it to hurricane force. And Tampa will be on the weak side of the storm. They probably won’t even cancel any games now.

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Aug 19, 2008 10:03 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BJ last night

From what I can gather, it looks like he was jogging into an empty base, and Tex did a great job of hustling from behind the play to get him. That is what it seems Joe thought, as well, based on his quotes.

From ESPN:

“That’s a mental mistake he made right there. It’s not a lack of effort,” Maddon said, explaining why he didn’t take action.

“It’s one of those situations where he assumed. We’ve talked about assumptions. That’s an assumption on his part. That’s part of his game we’ve got to get rid of.”

Not surprising in the least ESPN (NESN2) is the main outlet promoting this story. The headline of the recap is “Upton’s baserunning gaffe overshadows Rays’ win against MLB-best Angels” even though no one else really mentioned it (mlb.com or Baseball Musings, the only sites I’ve really looked at).

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 10:20 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Per The Heater, Reyes declines his assignment...
Reliever Al Reyes declined his outright assignment to Durham and is now a free agent.

Reyes, 38, was designated on Aug. 9 when the Rays acquired reliever Chad Bradford. Reyes had missed 55 games this season while spending two stints on the disabled list. In 26 games this season, Reyes boasted a 4.37 ERA.

Reyes made a huge impact with the Rays last season, making the club as a non-roster invitee and saving 26 games in 30 chances.

Reyes is the second Rays reliever to decline an outright assignment this season; RHP Gary Glover did so on Aug. 1 and has since joined the Tigers.

— JOE SMITH

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 10:23 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We make jokes about the Mets getting Reyes

But their bullpen is a mess, he might actually be able to help.

by kericr on Aug 19, 2008 11:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

'Til Percy gets back....

It’s engrained in me to have a go-to closer, not a committee. But with Percy gone until who knows when, we’re stuck with a committee.

I think in the mean time, it’d be nice to see Grant Balfour start to assume the role of coming in in the 8th and 9th innings and learn how to close out games. He’s the immediate future of the closer for next year. I just don’t trust Percy for two reasons: 1. he’s wild at times and 2. he’s fragile and to rely on someone who can get hurt so easily in the middle of a pennant race is dangerous and too risky.

by GatorSphere on Aug 19, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"1. he’s wild at times"

Percy and Balfour have both walked 18 in 39 IP

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 10:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hold on

Do both pitchers have that many walks each, or is that a combo of both? If so, can we get a breakdown of each?

Balfour is usually good, but he did have a bad inning in Texas.

by plasticman on Aug 19, 2008 10:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see how you can advocate a guy that throws 1 straight pitch

90% of the time to become our closer. I would bring him in situationally to face free-swingers, old men, other guys that can’t hit heat. In fact I would look at him as the exact opposite of J.P. I would use these two in the 6th or 7th (or 5th if Kaz is pitching). I would also throw Bradford into that situational status. We don’t have an elite bullpen guy, but we do have quite a few very good arms that excel in certain situations. I think it would be foolish to assign roles based on what inning it is vs. assigning roles based on who is at the plate, on deck, in the hole.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 11:40 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Wheeler closing most games...

…he isn’t exactly a pillar of consistency in the 9th but doesn’t seem to get too rattled. Balfour’s got the stuff, but it was a little unnerving seeing him get unglued in Texas.

Anybody at the game last night? If so, did you catch the video of Raymond brainwashing the rally monkey? I must say that one of the more amusing intra-game videos I’ve seen in quite awhile.

Also, IMO it was a decidedly anti-Upton crowd. Man, did he get booed mercilessly after the gaffe and when he came up afterwards. I actually felt a little bad for him. Also, tons of “RUN BJ” shouts and a sign that said “Run Forrest Run”, but had Forrest crossed out and replaced with BJ. Fans starting to heap it on…

Jamie DeLuca

by JDeLuca on Aug 19, 2008 11:21 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It really is sad...

After years of losing, we are finally winning and all the fans wanna do is dump on one of the best players. I hate stupid fans.

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 11:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's because they aren't really fans.

Rooting for the Rays is now the thing to do and you know how Tampa/St. Pete loves their teams (when they win). This is equivalent to booing Vinny Lecavalier for missing an empty net goal or getting stopped in a shootout. It is bound to happen eventually, but because of the short-term memory in the area (reeferino?) people always forget the path and only see the destination.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 11:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hope the players realize that

I don’t want this affecting how BJ feels about a possible extension in the future.

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This

It would break my heart. :(

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 19, 2008 11:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

GET OFF MY LAWN

FAY

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 11:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Awesome

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 19, 2008 1:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If they play tonight

the trop is going to be very very empty

by Rays4ever on Aug 19, 2008 11:35 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Really

A bunch of people with an unexpected day off, and no danger to be found? I expect as many people as last night, which isnt saying too much. I think you greatly overestimate our regional draw

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 19, 2008 11:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OT: My parents got their postseason info in the mail yesterday

Very reasonable. I hate scheduling a flight to go down there for it though. I think I am going to go ahead and plan on being down there when the first round would be. My girlfriend hasn’t been down in a while, so that can be the reason if we totally collapse. I don’t know what I’ll do if we make the WS.

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 11:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One Game at a Time, Good Lord Willing

I got my info too. I plan on making a post later about ticket pricing

by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 19, 2008 12:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Rays top relievers have vastly different skill sets, which is great for leveraging their strengths

Howell is a lefty (should face more lefties)
Balfour is a strikeout freak (should come in with runners in scoring position and less than two outs)
Bradford is a groundball machine (should pitch in double-play situations)
Wheeler is a righty (should face more righties)

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 19, 2008 3:06 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Closer by Committee

I think if you have an obviously excellent closer like Mariano Rivera, you use him. If you are the Rays, you do what is right in the situation. If you have to pick one, it’s either Balfour or Wheeler, whichever one shows they won’t walk the first batter they face in the 9th. My pick would be Balfour.

by pontormo on Aug 19, 2008 3:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

P.S.

Percival scares me to death. Am just as happy if he stays injured.

by pontormo on Aug 19, 2008 3:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The problem with that is

what do you mean “you use him”? If he is an excellent reliever (let’s use that designation instead of closer for now), is it efficient usage to bring him in to start the 9th with a 3 run lead? Are we so afraid that lesser relievers will wilt under the pressure of preserving a 3 run lead for 1 inning?

But suppose the Yankees have a 1 run lead in the 7th, and the opposition has runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. Is it efficient usage to bring in your 2nd or 3rd best reliever then because you want to keep Rivera available in case he has to protect a lead in the 9th that is about to disappear? I suppose the manager would have to consider who is pitching for the other team and what the Yankees’ chances are of scoring more runs and plenty more. But paring it down to a simple decision, why are you not using your best reliever in the most pressing situation?

Girardi cannot even consider that. I think Maddon can, especially with Percival out. And given his recent struggles and the emergence of other relievers, it may even be possible to convince Percival to alter his expectations a la the recommendation of skyking162, especially as I doubt Percival has to worry about another contract. (He may be concerned with accumulating saves for a HOF run, I suppose, or for the satisfaction of passing other closers if any are close to him, but his avowed purpose is to help weld the team into one rather than individual purposes, so he might be amenable to sacrifice gracefully, if only to symbolize that concept.)

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Excellent point, in my opinion

I have never considered things the way Bobr explained. Darn it. Just when I was getting used to my longstanding rigid concepts someone has to come along and screw everything up with logic and reason.

Well, I can only respond that back in my day we didn’t even use relievers. We pitched complete games, and men were men and women were women, except for the East Germans. And we LIKED it that way.

by Fox 71 on Aug 19, 2008 7:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Founded in 2005. DRaysBay is home to "progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."
Start posting about the Rays »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Jeff Niemann Mr. Consistently Inconsistently Consistent
Longo2_small
Official Draftee Signing Thread 2.0 Please rec
Small
Introducing volatility to the 2009 Rays starting pitching

Recent FanPosts

Small
stpetelawyer got married tonight!!
Dsc01731_small
Small questions for the locals
Small
7/2 11:59 P.M. Last chance All Star vote.
Zorilla_small
Top 10 AL OPS PD
Price_small
Almost midseason thoughts.
Mushroomray_small
The African American Intelligencia Loves the Rays
Mos-def-the-ecstatic_small
7/1 Minor League GDT: Rodriguez and De Los Santos
Logo_small
All-Star Game Rosters Expanded
52376727_small
Checking in with the pitching on the farm... part 2
52376727_small
Checking in with the pitching on the farm... part 1

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Rays shuffle rotation
Project Prospect Midseason Top 50
Cubs acquire Jeff Baker DFA Ryan Freel
The Gabe Of The Day platoon put up a .482 wOBA in June, while playing...
Jake McGee GCL start #2: 2 ip 0 h 0 r 0 bb 5 so
Hanrahan to Pittsburgh
MONTGOMERY, AL – The Southern League has announced the roster for the S...
MADDON'S MISSION IS HURTING THE RAYS
Lightning Free Agent Primer
STUPID BABIES NEED THE MOST ATTENTION
(i blame the beer)

Post_icon New FanShot All FanShots Carrot-mini


VPs of Baseball Operations

Mos-def-the-ecstatic_small R.J. Anderson

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Price_small Erik Hahmann

Ticket Account Executive

Grossamerica_small Sandy Kazmir

Zorilla_small FreeZorilla

Small Jason Pafundi

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports