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Chicken or Egg

The talk of "chemistry" always seems to come up when discussing potential fits. Occasionally talent is over weighed by the idea that "Player X will destroy the clubhouse atmosphere." Yet, how can anyone truly tell whether this would be the case or not?

Star-divide

Every season you'll read and hear about how a team - winning is a prerequisite during the season - has "unbelievable chemistry". It's stated as a catalyst for success and not as a product of success. Take this spring for instance; a load of stories were written about how the Rays now had great chemistry and how the veteran leaders made the clubhouse all gooey in a love fest. Coincidentally the Rays had also added talent upgrades and were due for some talent progression, yet more than not you hear about how it is and was the chemistry that makes this team win.

Of course those exact same things were written about the San Francisco Giants. No longer did they have the worst person alive in the clubhouse. The atmosphere was calm in the locker room and guys like Barry Zito apparently loved coming to work which is funny, because Zito obviously had issues with the perceived teammate killer when he signed that big contract. As they sit now the Giants winning percentage is .011 points lower than last season. Fred Lewis is having a nice season, but he's not the kitten killer, and players like Omar Vizquel, Jose Castillo, and Dave Roberts still found at-bats.

This question of chemistry is not so much a question of statistics - there's little doubt that production will likely be better, if only marginally, in a good atmosphere - but rather a question of the chicken or the egg. Do teams win because of good chemistry, or do teams with good chemistry gel because of winning? I tend to lean towards the latter; in fact this is how I would quantify the relationship between winning and chemistry:

Chemistry_medium

I've always had an issue when an analyst talks about the Rays and instead of noting the improved defense and bullpen rambles on about how the guys "believe in each other' and "have a special bond". That's cute, and I'm glad everyone gets along, but what else are they going to do? It's not like that great chemistry stopped Dioner Navarro and Matt Garza from a little confrontation. Does anyone think Delmon Young acts like a brat if the team is winning? Okay, well maybe, but I think the spin assigned to it would be far different.

It just seems like chemistry has become an immeasurable variably thrown around by folks that cannot be proven wrong despite how untrue it may be. Yes, clubhouse chemistry can have a (minor) positive effect, but in the long run it's winning that causes it, not "good guys" and "veteran leaders".

If Hannibal Lecter can help my team win I don't care if he wants the bullpen catcher for lunch.

 

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The Enforcer?!

Hannibal would probably have a mean hook.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Aug 19, 2008 12:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Chemistry is overrated junk

All these players want to win and they all pretty much try their hardest. Chemistry will not make a player play any closer or further than their max ability.

One thing I think chemistry ‘may’ do, although this really isn’t chemistry…I think one player can increase their ability of another through teaching. This is quite often masked in chemistry, but Barry Bonds has taught quite a few things to hitters and he isn’t the best chemistry guy. Even still the impact of that is small and probably insignificant.

by matthan on Aug 19, 2008 12:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What about when a team quits

I think it is one of those things where winning cures all, but losing brings out the worst in people. Are there certain guys that losing affects more? Sure. Are there certain guys that can’t control their cool in a losing streak or a slump? Sure.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 12:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Chemistry makes good headlines

Everyone likes to hear about players having fun and working together. How they push each other to succeed. It’s positive and makes people look past the notion that it’s just a bunch of players making tons of money because they are really really good. We still like to believe that unity and hard work will trump talent.

It’s all fluff. It’s why BJ gets booed and makes headlines for not hustling. It’s why BJ’s great catch is dismissed and Floyd legging out Tex’s bad toss grabs attention. People and the media don’t want to believe that talent means a lot more than heart and hustle.

by tallyray on Aug 19, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As you say, R.J.

it is not really measurable. But we can look anecdotally through baseball history to discover many teams that had conflicts in the clubhouse yet won. The most obvious example is the Tinker/Evers split. Another is the Ruth/Gehrig falling out (although in their first few years together they were very friendly). Then there are the famously disfunctional late 60s/early 70s As. Oh yes, and those 3 consecutive years the Tigers won the pennant Cobb was apparently despised by most of his teammates. (Is that why they did not win the World Series?) The late 70s Yankees were notoriously riven by internal conflicts and jealousies, but they still made up a 14 game deficit one year and won consecutive World Series.

I don’t have any lovey-dovey clubhouses in mind who lost, but it is interesting to note that teams that win one year and then flop the next, often with the same personnel, are often described as having lost the spark or chemistry that sustained them before. Why would that happen, unless it is the losing that preyed on them and destroyed the chemistry.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 12:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I loved my Bickering Bills of the late 80s, early 90s

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 19, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Shaq/Kobe Lakers

had HORRIBLE chemistry when they were winning 3 championships, in a sport where the interaction effects of chemistry are a lot greater than baseball.

I guess my point is it’s a little more complicated than you’re making it out to be.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking the other day about which teams I think have good chemistry...

If I had to rank the top 5 teams in terms of chemistry(as of this morning):
1)ANgels-unreal chemistry
2)Rays-get the slight edge because of a loving manager
3)close to the Rays, but not quite. Still incredible chemistry
4)White Sox-Ozzie Guillen is the master of chemistry
5)Mets-Randolph was awful for chemistry

Brewers just miss out. Chemistry isnt quite good enough to be in first.

by td32 on Aug 19, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

How can you quantify this?

Off hand, I can think of instances that would imply that chemistry wasn’t so good on these clubs. Rays have fight between Navi and Garza, Upton being lazy, CC pouting, etc. White Sox have dealt with Ozzie’s BS, Orlando Cabrera acting like a jerk, and I’m sure there are others considering Pyrzinski is on the team. Brewers had the fight.

I just don’t think you can say who is or isn’t javing great chemistry. I don’t watch enough of the other teams to say who seems to be smiling/joking aorund or whatever, but it just seems like it’s a ghost that people point to as the “magic” behind a team’s success.

by rglass44 on Aug 19, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you think

that Seattle and San Diego have terrible chemistry? And is that why SD failed to beat Colorado last year? Of course, I assume Colorado’s great chemistry will lead them back into contention this year, while Seattle should out perform expectations as they did last year. (Unless Bedard destroyed the chemistry that sustained them in 2007.)

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chemistry is overrated

baseball is a very individual sport at most levels, pitcher alone on mound, batter alone at plate, fielder alone at his position. chemistry should mean team mind set. a players level of focus and intensity is heightened based on the situation he’s in. a team in the hunt, with alot on the line has all the players thinking the same. If your 15 games out, and you know your CF is mailing it in the rest of the year, youre probably not bringing your max intensity to the park each day.

BOHICA

by Mr. Tonight TB on Aug 19, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's only semi-quantifiable

If the team wins, then it’s because of good chemistry (i.e., it’s quantifiable) or it’s despite bad chemistry (i.e., quantifiable.) Unfortunately, the components of good chemistry seem to be composed of yeti droppings and ground unicorn horn.

Of course, there’s the good chemistry that Bonds used. That was excellent chemistry, and probably quantifiable (or at least quantified) in the indictment.

by Fox 71 on Aug 19, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But

Clubhouse chemistry has a lot to do with how hard the players try, whether they’re mentally prepared day-in and day-out, how well the players take criticism, etc. But yeah, on the field itself, the interaction of the players affects maybe 5 plays a game? Not much in any case.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tim Kurchen on ESPN 1470 right now

pretty much disagrees with much of your thread

he feels the rays adding veterans like Floyd, Hinske and Percy, while dealing away Young and Dukes have played a large part in their success

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

he's looking at the wrong pieces

not so much adding Floyd, Hinske and Percy as getting Garza and JB in return. we dealt outfield depth for defense, it paid off.

BOHICA

by Mr. Tonight TB on Aug 19, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They did.

But only because they are currently better players.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 19, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Precisely

I think someone like Floyd may be able to help Upton overcome his recent problems. In that sense, a veteran presence, or a player with some career credit and a willingness to counsel younger players, can have an effect. But the key remains the success of Hinske, Percival, Floyd and others on the field.

It’s really quite simple. Which team wins more games? The one with 25 David Ecksteins or the one with 25 A-Rods?

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had always heard that A-Rod

was both a pitcher and a catcher so I would have to go with the latter.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't have used Eckstein for this example

But rather 25 Jeff Conines or 25 A-Rods, the answer is obvious, Conine always wins.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 19, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how about 25 bj uptons?

that would be the best but the laziest team ever lol jk

Longo=ROY. Friedman=Executive of the year. Maddon=Manager of the year. Gabe Gross= clutch.

by RaysOfHope on Aug 21, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the chemistry of subtraction

Subtracting last year’s alleged bull pen was good chemistry. I have no doubt but that they were nice guys and all that, but I feel a little more confident with Balfour coming in than I did with Fossum.

by Fox 71 on Aug 19, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone know if Rays are attempting to get their own TV network

ala YES, NESN and STO?

I’m tired of them being 2nd class to <arlins on FSN (few ganes in HD) and the worst when they;re on ION, with no pre game

I have Directva nd they don’t pick up HD feed of the games, so i only get them in regular format

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If they could get the Bucs, Lightning, and Storm on board I would think there is a good chance

Although that is exactly what FSN or Sunshine are supposed to be.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you realize YES starts broadcasting Yankee games

at 5:30 for batting practice for a 7 PM game?

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What else are they going to show?

It’s 24-7 Yankees and it would be awesome if the Rays did the same. Of course it’s we don’t exactly have the stock footage to go back and show great games of yesteryear, but maybe in a decade.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Worst. Ratings. Ever.

Could you imagine watching a retrospective on Brent Abernathy.

by tallyray on Aug 19, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No way.

Jared Sandberg on the other hand.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 19, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or Doug Creek?

Sadly, I’d watch.

by RATW on Aug 19, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You've gone too far.

Although I really would find it interesting what guys like Steve Cox, Bobby Smith, and the minor league gunshot guys (Delvin James, Nick Bierbrodt) are up to these days. Of course, probably about five other people would share such an interest.

by RATW on Aug 19, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They should do a look back at the first team...

I also wonder what Paul Wilder is doing right now.

by tallyray on Aug 19, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wanna see Fred McGriff doing some Emanski drills

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But thats how I learned how to throw into a garbage can from

100 yards. Also thats where I learned to roll a ball around on the ground amongst my teammates.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's pretty cool.

formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8

by walkoffwalk on Aug 19, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is it just a couple of mounted cameras or is there some production to it?

Either way it must be sweet.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 19, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think they have enough pull with the cable networks

The regional sports networks get by because they bully the local cable stations into paying a hefty price to broadcast the network. The Rays, Magic, and Storm aren’t a big enough entity to pressure the cable stations into giving in. The Bucs are irrelevant because of the NFL contracts.

by tallyray on Aug 19, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It comes down to money...

RSNs charge the cable companies a certain amount per subscriber. The big thing with YES was that they refused to be on a Sports Tier and wanted Cablevision to put them on the basic package. That meant everyone subscribing to cable would get YES and then YES would get paid for everyone instead of just those that chose YES.

A local RSN would have a lot less leverage and would have to settle for a sport tier. I don’t believe the local market would be great enough to support a station on a sports tier with enough subscribers to overcome the costs of obtaining the teams rights.

by tallyray on Aug 19, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This maneuver also blocked

new Yankees Stadium and Giants Stadium from being in Manhattan. There was practically a war over this. Cablevision refused to air YES on their network, and Time Warner in turn refused to air MSG. It was pretty rotten for about 6 months.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No way

Not enough of a fan base. Even the Nats and Orioles have to share a network, and that’s a much larger population base than just the Tampa Bay area. Like is stated below, there’s not even enough for a local sports network owned by a consortium of the teams.

However, if the Rays keep winning, and their ratings stay up, you can bet that all games (other than those conflicting with the national schedule) will be broadcasted in a few years. If the Rays keep pulling the ratings they have been lately, then it will become more profitable for ION to run the Rays instead of Seinfeld reruns or whatever else they show.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good chemistry depends on the chemicals

Without a doubt, chemistry makes a big difference, not just in baseball, but in any team situation. That said, I cannot statistically support its value. In fact, as pointed out by others, there are many examples of winning teams with “lousy” chemistry, if chemistry is defined as getting along. And losing teams that get along just fine.

And, in any sample of data, there is always something to support any perspective, as all good attorneys and baseball anaysts know.

But chemistry is something very elusive, impossible to quantify. And it totally depends on the types of personalities you have on the team. Let’s analyze this.

First off, chemistry does not mean “getting along”. What it means is being internally on the same page as to approach to what you are trying to accomplish. A team, of course, is only effective as a team if it has good leadership. And how is leadership conveyed? Through management, and key team leaders on the field. If a team is managed by Billy Martin, and has Reggie Jackson in the clubhouse, you might call it dysfunctional, but it might also be considered “good chemistry” because the style of the way the team approaches things is consistent with management practices. You either get on the same page—get in sync with the chemistry—or you get out. And once a team is on the same page as how they are being led—whether it means swaggering, fighting, or harmony—then you’ve got the seeds of success. That’s chemistry. It’s not about getting along—it’s about being on the same page about how you approach the game.

On the Rays. Maddon sets the tone. He is thoughtful, quietly demanding, open to creative approaches, sets up a collaborative teaching environment, accepts physical mistakes, does not tolerate hustle. Be believes that team leaders take responsibilty for setting the tone, teaching, and leading by example. He wants to emplower players. In short, he runs his team like a well-organized successful business management team. So in this case, good chemistry means getting the right parts for such a team. That includes Cliff Floyd, Percival, and others. It also means Barry Bonds may not be a good fit for the Rays. (Whereas Barry may have been perfect for the ’78 Yanks.)

Maddon projects harmony, but that is only a style—one blueprint for good chemistry. And it works with the Rays. Billy Martin had another model for chemistry—which worked great for the Yanks.

And when you look at it this way, chemistry is indeed everything—makes people pull in the same direction, leads to better effort, which in turn can only help the team win.

I manage an office. That’s exactly how I think of team chemistry…and it makes a big difference on the bottom line in my organization…I can’t see why it should be any different in baseball.

by Calif on Aug 19, 2008 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

a counter-point...

Imagine hiring 25 of the 750 best employees in your field who don’t really have to interact with each other to do their job, they only interact because they’re in close proximity. How much does your management matter to those guys? Probably still some, but definitely not as much.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 19, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How Maddon's image has changed...

It’s really amazing how much Maddon’s image has changed in a year. Success can make a lot of these look nice and rosey.

by tallyray on Aug 19, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really think Maddon's image has changed

only to those who have not been paying attention since 2006. For anyone looking at the reality instead of the stereotyping, he has always been a tough minded, intelligent, creative and somewhat daring manager with a great eye for detail and a sophisticated grasp of the personalities he had to deal with.

Many saw his optimistic public pronouncements as pollyannaism, not recognizing the enormous self control and fortitude it represented. Many took it to mean he was out of touch with reality rather than seeing it as extraordinary self confidence that he was on the right track.

When Maddon was first hired, California posted on another site that the Rays were lucky to have him, and he went on to describe the many talents he brought to the team. Once you began with that perspective, all the interpretations of what he said and did fell into place.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 4:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I've liked Maddon all along...

He’s been the perfect complement to the FO who have stayed constant in their plan since the beginning.

My point is mainly to the media and sports talk types who wanted Maddon out last year for his poor decision making and quiet demeanor. Amazing the difference a year makes.

by tallyray on Aug 19, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I think that is true

at least partly because much of the media and sports talk types take no responsibility for what they say. They can reverse field on a dime without having to explain what reasoning led the astray the first time. They can simply change one set of cliches for another. When the Rays win the division, for example, the same people who doubted their ability to stay the course because they were young and inexperienced will chalk it up to their youthful enthusiasm and immunity to pressure because they are too naive to realize it exists.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks Bob, for the nod

Regarding Maddon, It’s very difficult to maintain consistency in approach when people are clamoring for your head…unless you have unwavering support from the top, and a plan you can stick with. Which the Rays have… The management team of the Rays from ownership down has been outstanding in that regard since 2006. The plan was always intended to bear fruit by 2009 or 2010; it just looks like the vine is ripening early…very nice to see.

by Calif on Aug 19, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From the start

it seemed to me that Maddon and the Rays’ management were entirely at one regarding how to build a consistent contender. I doubt they ever had any hesitation about renewing him despite the terrible record. This is a group with real courage, the sort that plans and trusts its decisions. Having picked Joe, they knew he was the right man and intended to give him a full opportunity to prove them right.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 6:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I got awfully tired of hearing Joe say everything was OK when we were getting clobbered

He would say how great someone looked on that 2-1 pitch, or how well the pitcher backed up third. (OK, and how well they ran out double play grounders.) If we were where we were last year, I think I would long since have opened my veins.

But winning sure makes a bunch of geniuses out of people, including Joe. I’m glad I wasn’t in charge, because I wouldn’t have had the patience. (I’m older than most here, and don’t have as many summers left to wait for my new adopted team to win it all.) In retrospect, it’s clear that he’s the right guy for the job. And he’s got better players and players who are producing well (or at least well enough.)

by Fox 71 on Aug 19, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes but

if you listened carefully to the comments, most of the time there was substance. In a sense he was responding as R.J. and others have commented here before, that is he was more interested in process than results. When young players did things the right way, he wanted to provide public reinforcement. I am pretty sure the criticism occurred but behind closed doors.

One of the early signs that he was the right man was the precision of many of his observations. On the surface his comments might have seemed like pap, but they usually were predicated on praise for very specific skills or actions.

by bobr on Aug 19, 2008 11:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No buts

I’m with you 100%. Joe is the right guy. I went through Tommy Lasorda’s heyday in LA, and he got a lot out of his VERY GOOD players. I think Joe is doing a better job getting more out of his very good players.

by Fox 71 on Aug 20, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

can we get a front page post with this chart included?

you might wan to also want to make the point about expectations going forward. success in the past, whether deserved or dumb like, is valuable. but going forward, you want the guys with good processes, whether they’ve been successful in the past or not.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i suck at reply -- i'm referring to RJ's four quadrant chart, naturally.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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