September Call-ups
by Dbullsfan on Aug 20, 2008 12:23 AM EDT
26 comments
For the first time ever we are in a situation where September call-ups are going to be used to help the MLB team instead of just getting some young guys some playing time. That brings the question of who do we call up? Here is a list of guys who could potentially be call-up, Ill give my thoughts what does everyone else think?
Guys already on the 40 man
Juan Salas- I know he is already in the majors but I am throwing him in here because I would assume he would be sent down for a day or 2 depending on when Percival comes back.
My guess: 100% chance of being called up
Kurt Birkins- forgotten about lefty who has a 6.75 ERA down in Durham. Has some MLB experience but isnt that good.
My guess: 60% chance of being called up. The only reason it is that high is because we will only have 2 other lefties in the pen and it never hurts having an extra arm.
James Houser- Injured
Jeff Niemann- Niemann was a big name tossed around at the trade deadline and has really good stuff and is a mlb ready starter. He does have a history of injury problems and is only completing his 2nd full pro season.
My Guess: 25% chance of being called up. I think Niemann is a starter and isnt really built to work out of the pen, I also think he would benefit from being shut down a little bit earlier after the minor league playoffs.
David Price- I dont know if there is anything I can say people dont already know, he has struggled in his first 2 AAA starts with command which could be a problem.
My guess: 30%- The front office may get pressured into calling him out but I think the smart move would be to let him finish the year in Durham and shut him down after that. While he could be a bit of help to the pen, I think he will benefit more from getting an extra couple starts in the AAA playoffs.
J.K. Ryu- injured
Mitch Talbot- Insert man crush warning here, Talbot has been extremely solid of late. He has gone 8-1 in his last 10 starts and has allowed just 6 runs in his last 7. Talbot would be my choice to get the spot start in the DH against Baltimore late September and could be successful out of the pen.
My guess: 75%- not sure the FO is as high as I am on him.
John Jaso- Jaso has been a stud since being called up to Durham, .856 OPS and has been solid behind the plate. He would be the easier of the 2 catchers for the Rays to call up being on the 40.
My guess: 35%, not that I don't like Jaso, I just think the FO will go with the veteran Difeliece.
Joel Guzman- .713 OPS but plays a solid defense and has been playing some SS of late along with 3B and 1B. He has tremendous power but that is about the extent of his offensive prowess.
My guess: 75% A right handed power bat, wouldn't hurt right?
Elliot Johnson- most versatile guy possibly in the whole system. I talked to him earlier in the year and he mentioned that he was even the emergency catcher during his time with the big league club at the beginning of the season. He isnt the most talented but has good speed and plays good defense.
My guess: 100%, perfect type of player to call up, can play everywhere on the diamond, switch hitter with good speed.
Fernando Perez- one of the more interesting options, before the season or even a month and a half ago I would say no way he gets called up but he continues to play solid defense and .748 OPS + 40 SB isn't bad either. Could get called up for his defense and speed.
My guess: 50% Really not even sure what I would do much less what the FO will do.
Jonny Gomes- AAA Jonny not much better than MLB Jonny 12-52 (does have 2 HR)
My guess: 40%, I would guess that Gomes, Perez, and Guzman all wont get called up but 2 will, Jonny could be the man left out.
Guys not on the 40 Man.
Dan Johnson- Johnson has been playing a lot of 3B leading a lot of people to believe that this is leading to a September call-up. Im not sure why the Rays would try him out there if that wasnt the case given he most likely wont be on the team next year.
My guess: 90%, he should get the call, my guess Ryu goes to 60 man DL
Mike Difelice- Veteran catcher, isnt going to bring much to the table other than experience but that he has. Difelice was a member of the original Devil Rays
My Guess: 65%, He isnt as good as Jaso but I think they go with the veteran.
Dale Thayer- A lot of people keep throwing this name out there and I am a big fan of his 2.39 ERA in 48 innings.
My guess: 5%. Like I said I am a Thayer fan but I dont see us taking someone off the 40 man to add a guy who would maybe only make it 1 or 2 games and that would only be in mop up duty. Thayer should get his chance next spring to make the roster.
Chris Richard- Richard has been the MVP for the Bulls this season (.914 OPS) IMO and can play 1B or corner outfield. Will most likely have the same problem as Thayer
My guess: 10%, A little higher than Thayer but snot by much, I dont really see the Rays making room on the 40 man for a guy who isnt going to play much
This was kinda long but it is nice to have September call-ups really mean something and I for one am excited.
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Nice post
Regarding Fernando Perez, I would definitely call him up. He’s got fantastic speed and would be an excellent pinch runner in tight games against the Sox late in the season. Being able to pull Hinske or Gross or Floyd late in a game when they get on base and put Perez’s speed out there would be a nice weapon to have, and I could see it making the difference in a game or two down the stretch, a la Dave Roberts for the Sox a few years back.
by hibachi7_7_7 on Aug 20, 2008 12:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting post. Can't believe Sept. 1st is almost upon us.
A pinch-runner (F. Perez) and third catcher (Jaso/DiFelice) would add a great deal of flexibility to the bench. I think those two spots have to be a given; it’s just a matter of which catcher and there are good arguments both for and against the choice of player.
Assuming Longoria returns around the time of callups (good lord willing), technically you could throw Zobrist/Ruggiano on the list of callups as well. Speaking of which, I would think Zobrist makes Elliot Johnson redundant.
Talbot is an interesting one and it wouldn’t hurt to give him some Hammel-type exposure.
I’ve given up trying to figure out the plan for Dan Johnson.
Are people backing off Price? Conventional wisdom seemed certain he’d be up even prior to Sept. 1st.
by RATW on Aug 20, 2008 3:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the rays will find a way to get price up here and on the playoff roster
Longo=ROY. Friedman=Executive of the year. Maddon=Manager of the year. Gabe Gross= clutch.
by RaysOfHope on Aug 20, 2008 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Questions
Isn’t Guzman on the DL? Is he expected to be back soon?
Has Jaso’s catching improved to where he is a palatable option behind the plate?
As fast as he is, isn’t Perez still a poor percentage base stealer?
Is there some concern about Niemann’s work load? He has only pitched 110.1 inning so far and managed 131 last year, so it would seem he has 50 or so left.
Also, I am glad to hear someone who has an up close look be enthusiastic about Talbot. I keep thinking he can eventually be a decent back of the rotation pitcher or bullpen arm, but have not seem him pitch or even heard much beyond the stats.
I think Gomes would get called up if only because of his history with the team. I saw after his hot start he slumped badly in Durham, but he seems to have revived a bit and is a popular player with experience in the majors.
by bobr on Aug 20, 2008 5:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One more question
Does someone have to be on the 25 man prior to September 1st, to be eligible for the playoff roster?
by LeftRight on Aug 20, 2008 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Usually...
But there are ways around that…putting a player on the DL, and calling up a player can do this. Apparently the Rays will be able to do this with Orvella from what I read. If the Rays want to bring a player up post September 1, they can use Orvella as the reasoning.
RJ sent me the link, although I cant recall where it was from. I think it was from one of the local newspaper blogs.
by td32 on Aug 20, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't think this is correct.
Orvella is on the 60-day DL, and thus doesn’t count against the roster, and thus can’t be someone who is substituted, or at least that’s my understanding of the rules. If someone comes off the 15-day in September, they can replace someone of like position, and if someone gets injured in September, they can be replaced by someone of like position, but I don’t think someone can be injured, stay injured, and be replaced.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I thought as well...
But an article RJ forwarded me stated differently. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
by td32 on Aug 20, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Perez
He is a poor percentage base stealer, and from what I hear, his baserunning instincts need work. That said, he’s still faster than a lot of guys we have, and he’s better defensively than anyone on the bench. I don’t think he’ll be called up because I think Durham will need him, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perez:
77% (40/52) success rate this year
64% (32/50) last year in Montgomery
At the least, it looks as though he has improved.
by RATW on Aug 20, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
77% is fine
It is passed the cut-off point in most situations.
by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously....
I dont get it….Explain what the benefit of 3 or 4 extra starts in AAA is for a player. How much can he possibly improve in that little time? I think this argument gets WAY too much play. His innings arent that high, so if he can help this team out of the bullpen, then bring him up.
He has pitched great up until his last 2 starts, and the first one he apparently didnt give up many solid hits.
So, again, how is it better to get a couple more starts in AAA then to help a MLB team with no guarentees of making it back to the playoffs in the future? Trust, he isnt going to develop any more by getting a few more additional starts, then getting shut down.
by td32 on Aug 20, 2008 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Price
I think coming out of the BP for the big club would be more beneficial to his progress than a few starts in AAA in September. Then he battles in the spring, and depending on the rest of the pitching staff he can start in Durham if they think he needs more polish or out of teh BP, or in the big rotation.
by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes...
The kid has been starting his entire life. He doesnt need any more experience “starts wise”. If he needs to work on his craft, let hi work on it this offseason, because he certainly wont all of a sudden develop a plus changeup in his next 4 starts. He already has 2 plus pitches, which is all you need coming out of the bullpen.
by td32 on Aug 20, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Davis?
There was talk of him coming up in September. Is that still a viable option? I guess a lot of this depends on what the Bulls are doing playoffs-wise.
by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2008 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My guesses
Durham is heading to the playoffs, as well as the Rays. While the Rays aren’t going to keep anyone down who they think could really help in a playoff race, they’re also not going to call up guys just for the sake of calling them up.
I’d say Salas stays up, Price gets called up, mayyyybe Birkins gets called up (just to have an extra situational lefty), and one of Niemann or Talbot gets called up, and that’s it.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Niemann
Rays need to make a decision before the start of next season to decide if Niemann stays in the majors, bullpen or rotation. He is dominant enough at Durham to be able call him up and try him for an extended period. If he isn’t need, alot of teams will ask the rays if he is available because he is a top prospect.
by zrays on Aug 20, 2008 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's out of options after this year
So he’ll have to be in the majors no matter what. That’s one of his benefits from signing a major league contract out of college – he started using up options the minute he signed.
I’m sure the team will make a decision before the regular season starts, and I’d gander that one of the rotation candidates gets traded. Also, don’t rule out the possibility of him starting as a reliever and becoming a starter later on. I know it doesn’t happen nearly as often lately, and there are a couple of prominent examples of where a player got injured afterwards (Joba + Liriano), but it’s been common through history, and there are tons of starters out there who started as relievers and were eased back into starter roles; just they’re usually not the guys who were top prospects to begin with.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his five-year contract goes through 09
is he a free agent after that even though his service time is basically at zero years? or does the current contract just end and he’s under the same rules as a player with one year of service time?
i’d really like to see Niemann traded for his offensive equivalent (as I would many of the Rays pitching prospects), but he would make a very good reliever. Tampa’s not losing any of their bullpen other than possibly Miller ($2MM option) and Salad should probably be joining it.
lastly, the Rays’ pen is a good bet to be a relative disappointment in 2009 — that’s my early call for story of the season. almost everyone has an ERA lower than their true talent, especially wheeler and percival (and probably Balfour — nobody’s THIS good). it will be a good test of the rays’ management if the roles stay the same year to year or if they realize Percival et al aren’t the total answer.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
crap, this was a reply to brickhaus' comment on Niemann
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can someone give me a little clarification on how all this works?
I was under the impression at one point that players called up after September 1st are on the postseason roster.
I was then under the impression that players called up after September 1st are not on the postseason roster, so players that are on the postseason roster still need to come from the 25 man.
I was also under the impression that players who were on the 25 man as a result of someone being on the DL after September 1st are on the postseason roster; in addition, if the player comes off the DL after September 1st, he is also on the postseason roster as well as the person who was called up to replace him while he was injured.
In short, I’m now under the impression that I have no idea whatsoever how this works.
Also, for the guys you say are being called up that are not currently on the 40 man, who do you think gets waived in order to make room?
by kericr on Aug 21, 2008 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
as for the last part. I am pretty sure both JK Ryu and Reid Brignac are on the 7 day DL
and both could be moved to the 60 day DL which would open up a spot on the 40 man. If for some reason there was a need for a 3rd player Crawford could be put on the 60 day as well.
by Dbullsfan on Aug 22, 2008 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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