Percival = Hall of Fame?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 20, 2008 2:03 PM EDT
23 comments
A bit of an odd topic, but one I have been considering for the past few weeks. Assuming Percival is healthy enough to play next season and will resume the closer's role there is a possibility that he could reach seventh and perhaps sixth on the all-time saves list. Currently he ranks eighth with 351, Jeff Reardon is seventh with 367, Billy Wagner sixth with 385, and the only closer not named Rollie Fingers within the top 10 list to be in the hall of fame, Dennis Eckersley, ranks fifth with 390.
Naturally there's more to being a hall of famer than save totals otherwise Lee Smith and Reardon should be in the hall of fame, no debate. As it stands three active pitchers are higher than Percy in saves; Trevor Hoffman who leads everyone, ever, by nearly 100 saves, Mariano Rivera who should pass Smith for second all-time by season's end, and Wagner. Percival is tied for the second oldest of the group with Rivera while Wagner is two years younger.
I'll assume Hoffman and Rivera are locks, that puts three of the top 10 savers in the hall of fame. Percival's career may outlive Hoffman's, although that's not a given, and likely will be shorter than Rivera/Wagner, which leaves him in an awkward position. The hall's committee doesn't tend to vote relievers, and compounding the matter is that John Franco may join Cooperstown before Percival has a chance to be eligible.
That would put three (Hoffman, Rivera, Franco) of the top five into Cooperstown - assuming Wagner actually passes Eckersley - and potentially four of five if Wagner were to be inducted at a later date. There is almost zero chance Percival could join the top five. He would need to match this season's saves total and get twelve more after that just to match Eckersley, who, by the also did some neat stuff as a starter.
Sure, voters look at other inconsequential stuff, like world series rings (Luis Sojo, reservation for Cooperstown please) which Percival has two of, but was only active for one, and his other numbers that don't really matter - only to those voters - aren't enough to push him over the top.
Nice player, good guy, but Percival's likely not heading for enshrinement five years after retirement.
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No
and I’d be surprised if he made it past the first vote. I think there’s a clear line with closers now, and that line says you need to have 10 DOMINANT seasons. Aggregation with a few dominant seasons thrown in here and there won’t do it (hence no Lee Smith).
Rivera is a first-ballot lock. Hoffman will probably get in on his 8th or 9th ballot. Same with Wagner, if he can keep it up for a few more years. After that, nobody’s even close.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
and re: Franco
I doubt he’ll last past 4 or 5 votes.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No. Lee Smith isn't even getting in.
formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8
by walkoffwalk on Aug 20, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rivera is the only closer who deserves to be in
Rest of them suck
by Jason Collette on Aug 20, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
are you guys saying that the closer role is overrated?
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of course not.
But you better have a good bullpen coach if you don’t have a veteran closer.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 20, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree on that
when A:: teams are winning over 90% of the time whenleading after 8 inn, it’s, if not over rated at least over hyped
by sternfan1 on Aug 20, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course, those stats only come from an environment where closers are used in the ninth innings
with weaker pitchers appearing in some 2-run and 3-run games, that 90% number will be slightly lower. but that’s ok, because teams who properly use their bullpen ace in important 7th and 8th inning situations will more often take leads into the ninth. the gain of having more 9th inning leads outweighs the lower percentage of leads kept.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, but
if you’re only pitching 600 – 1000 innings in your career, they better be damn dominant innings. Not too many guys make it into the Hall with that few innings pitched over a peak, and the ones who do have been Koufax/Dean level, at least.
FWIW, Hoffman has pitched about 1000 innings in his career (about the same as Sutter, with a slightly higher level of dominance). Rivera’s pitched just over 1000 (but much more dominantly than Sutter). Wagner’s a little over 800, but is much closer to Rivera’s dominance level than Hoffman’s, and probably has a better shot at the Hall than Hoffman if he can avoid falling apart. Percy only has about 600 innings, and has only been slightly more dominant than Hoffman over 3/5 as many innings. That just ain’t gonna cut it. Even if you take Sutter as the line of demarcation (which I think is low), Percival isn’t even close. One Percival = 1/2 Lee Smith.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and keep in mind that replacement level ERA for relievers is of much higher quality than for starters
about a full run better (5.75 vs. 4.75 in today’s game). of course, closers do deserve extra credit for pitching in high-leverage situations.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but
do you really think baseball writers will take that into account?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i refuse to EVER consider what baseball writers consider
the game of predicting the choices made by members of the BBWAA doesn’t interest me AT ALL. you and I would do a better job of picking awards and Hall of Famers, so we might as well only care about what we think.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the question is whether they'll make it into the Hall of Fame
And since that’s the question, the answer necessitates an analysis of what the actual voters would consider.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Aug 20, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, i abstain from that discussion
in my own opinion, there are very few relievers who should be considered among the all-time great baseball players. Mariano Rivera might be the best of all time, and he’s borderline in my opinion — although I haven’t given it all that much thought.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 20, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT: Mets just signed Al Reyes...They now have Brian Stokes, Rudy Lugo, and Al Reyes...
formerly websterjtc; always 9 = 8
by walkoffwalk on Aug 20, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
reyes to reyes to reyes and back to reyes for the double play!
that would be pretty amazing
Longo=ROY. Friedman=Executive of the year. Maddon=Manager of the year. Gabe Gross= clutch.
by RaysOfHope on Aug 21, 2008 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First, a little off topic – The related fanshot on this story according to the column on the right:
Three of these four are on the DL.
As for Percival in the HOF? I dunno. The HOF doesn’t appear to be a destination for closers; I think the only reason why Eck is there is because of his total package: he was nearly invincible for an entire year as a closer(1990, 5 runs given up all year) and he won a Cy Young and an MVP award as a closer (1992). He also has almost 200 wins to his credit in addition to his nearly 400 saves. One of the big reasons closers became popular among fans was because Eck was also a showman. If Eck wasn’t the bombastic character that he was, maybe he’s not the one who makes the closer’s role popular.
IMO, the existance of the closer position as we know it today is just too young to see Percival make it while he can be voted in. Maybe that existing members committee brings him in down the line once we’ve been exposed to more pitchers and get a better grasp as to how difficult 300, 400, 500 saves is, but I don’t see him making it while I’m still young.
by kericr on Aug 20, 2008 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No on the Hall for Percy
Rivera and Hoffman get in. Wagner and Franco on the bubble (not sure they get in though). The BBWAA doesn’t like closers. They have to be truly elite to be enshrined I think. They do like dinosaur stats such as RBI, though (Jim Rice, c’mon in!).
Percy had a great career. Coming up short of the Hall is nothing to be ashamed of. There are plenty of deserving candidates on the outside looking in. Problem is, it devalues what Cooperstown is all about (in my opinion, anyway) when the writers pick and choose who gains enshrinement. It’s the Hall of Fame. Not the Hall of Very Good. Unfortunately, the flood gates may have opened with Jim Rice (assuming he is in as many anticipate).
by MikeB. on Aug 20, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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