i’d be happy with his production

ya just have to hope he’d strike out less and put the ball in play more. Still, his 2nd half has had a lot of clutch AB’s and he’s helped win games. I dare say without him, the Rays wouldn’t be in 1st place by 4 1/2 games on 8/22/08.

Go Rays!

I mentioned this before in the Open Stats thread and forgot to look back at the replies. I’ll post my opinion again and try to justify it better.

Carlos Pena has been a different hitter since June first than he was in May, at least statistically.

April/May: .220/.328/.410… 70 Ks/233 PAs
Since June 1: .258/.382/.571 … 59 Ks/221 PAs

One thing I want to point out is that these stats aren’t for predictive value but the actual contribution the player made over that period. Some say that Pena has underperformed and he did in April and May.

However, since June 1st he’s put up very good numbers and is up there with Evan as the best offensive player on the team. I doubt don’t that his future rates are probably closer to his seasonal line than his last couple months, but his contributions this year have improved quite a bit since May.

Errors and moving runners over makes it so. It is kind of obvious when you think about it. The question is how much worse and is if it significant.

Pena has picked it up lately. The problem with Pena isn’t his overall numbers it is how he seems to go on prologned slumps and then extreme hot streaks. I know baseball is a game of streaks, but it seems that Pena just overdoes it.

Everyone would agree that an out that moves a runner up or a struck ball that becomes a baserunner due to an error is better than a strikeout. In a specific circumstance that is obvious.

But the issue is not the individual case but the overall value,and as you say, the question is how much worse and if it is significant, and the research suggests “marginally” and “no”.

But we are not discussing a player’s value based on his Ks. There are at least 2 reasons for this. One is that a batter who does strike out a lot but also walks and hits for power remains an exceptionally valuable player. The instances when his strikeouts cause agita in fans are more than compensated for by the run production he provides.

And second, you cannot easily isolate one feature of a batter’s style. The strikeouts may be a function of his patience (taking pitcher’s pitches) and home run swing. Obviously we would like all our players to be DiMaggio, but that won’t happen, so we have to accept the Ks in exchange for the benefits.

There is another point. Sometimes excessive Ks are a sign that the batter has a problem with major league pitchers. Those slumps become career threatening. Particularly with young players, like Ruggiano (and possibly Fernando Perez), their high K rates may be a signal they will be exploited by major league pitchers. But when it is a Dunn or Pena (probably), they are far more valuable major leaguers than players who rarely strike out, even who hit for better BAs, but who rarely walk or get extra base hits. And in the end, that is what is most significant, not quibbling over the frustration of strikeouts in key spots.