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Is Gabe Gross Overrated?

Purely based on his offense.

Most casual fans think Gross is clutch and all that jazz, but his raw stats leave a bit to be desired: .234/.337/.413 overall. Gross has had to face lefties in 52 at-bats and his lack of success pulls his numbers down a bit. Against righties Gross has a .766 OPS and outside of July each month has been solid:

 

Month OPS BABIP LD%
May 0.838 0.310 17
June 0.868 0.318 22
July 0.379 0.063 12
August 0.911 0.318 24

You don't see 0.063 BABIPs much, even with a weak .240 xBABIP. Otherwise his numbers look pretty solid and Gross' HR/FB% is in line with his career norms. There's no reason to believe this is a fluke season, and yet I know a few have said he's overrated. I suppose that could be purely from the label we give him, which is why I'm going to offer my description of Gross:

Above average hitter (with defensive value) who should almost never hit against left-handed pitchers.

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Allow me to be the first to say

Was Gabraham Gross even rated? I would have to say that with the possible exception of Raymond, he’s probably the player I think least about. He seems like he’s average in everything but defense. Posting those numbers makes it clear that he’s (to me at least) underrated.

/rap quote

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Aug 25, 2008 9:07 AM EDT reply actions  

Above average hitter (with defensive value) who should almost never hit against left-handed pitchers.

Isn’t that what he’s always been? Presumably you mean ‘above average hitter against righties’, but I don’t think this is breaking any ground. If you compare him to starting RFs though, he’s probably average to below-average.

Another way of putting it would be to say that he’s Jonny Gomes with less power, fewer strikeouts and more defensive value. Either way, he probably shouldn’t be much more than a platoon player / role player, and I’d feel a lot more comfortable if we got a better RF for next year. If this team makes it deep into the playoffs, the pitching will probably suffer next year, and we’ll have to rely more on offense. Offensively, Gabe Gross doesn’t cut it, and his defense isn’t so good to warrant having someone who hits like a decent middle infielder at a premium offensive position.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 25, 2008 9:56 AM EDT reply actions  

But Jonny Gomes is just like Carlos Quentin

Only he strikes out more often, doesn’t get on base as much, hits fewer HRs and has less defensive value

by steve-o1285 on Aug 25, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought Jonny was a welfare checks Swisher.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 25, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

not totally true, Quentin sucks in the outfield

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 25, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Still nobody I would rather have up in the 9th.

Especially if the closer is a righty. Although I would feel fairly comfortable against a lefty too, just ask Matt Thornton.

There’s something to be said for a guy who knows how to handle late inning ABs. I would like to see his numbers in the 8th inning or later, if somebody can find those.

by steve-o1285 on Aug 25, 2008 10:18 AM EDT reply actions  

i'll make a bet with you about Gross's future clutch performances

let’s set the bar at Gross’s future OPS in the clutch won’t be more than .030 points higher than his non-clutch OPS.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 25, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll take that bet!!!

$6 Million!!!

Bet threats aside, I would take Gross at the plate in the 9th anyday.

by steve-o1285 on Aug 25, 2008 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

According to that

his “late & close” OPS is .886. Not so great in the 9th inning in particular, but in regards to that bet, I’ll take it.

by steve-o1285 on Aug 26, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't do that either.

That’s more than .100 points higher than his career average.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 26, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

ok, what are we betting? how about a one-week avatar bet?

once you approve the bet, it will run through the rest of the regular season starting with the first full game after your approval. i will let you choose one of two ways to keep score:

You win if either…
1. Gross’s WPA is at least .25 higher than his WPA/LI
or
2. Gross’s late and close OPS is at least .050 points higher than his overall OPS

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 26, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

By accepting this bet

I would be betting against regression to the norm. But I believe in the blessed man enough, I’ll do it…option #1

by steve-o1285 on Aug 26, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

i respect you

even though i’m going to kick your ass ; )

here’s hoping for lots of early inning Gabe Gross homeruns!

and can i request that the avatars be humiliating, yet appropriate?

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 26, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gross' current numbers

he’s at .48 WPA and .03 WPA/LI at 3:32 EDT on August 26th, the start of this bet.

(i probably gave myself too much of an advantage with the .25 WPA-WPA/LI gap, but i’m not giving any of it back!)

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 26, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

figured that as well...

but the last month of the season just became even more fun, so what the hell.

by steve-o1285 on Aug 26, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Role player

I don’t think we can evaluate Gross the same way we do a starting player. He was acquired to play a specific role: late inning defensive replacement, occasional platoon starter, outfield reserve. For that role he is very well suited. In that sense he is a superior player.

If he is a regular, he is not a good player, but that is not what he is intended to be. No team has 25 outstanding players. What makes the Rays better than most is that we have players like Gross to fill in when needed. Comparing Gross to Upton for example is like comparing Iwamura to Pena or Shields to Longoria. They have entirely different functions, and each performs his very well.

Even should the Rays acquire an outstanding right fielder, they would likely keep Gross because of the need for a 4th outfielder. Think about it this way. Suppose a team had Sizemore, Granderson, Quentin, Dye and Gross (and had an outstanding DH and starter at 1B as well). Which of the 5 would go? My guess is it would not be Gross, although he is clearly far below the other 4. But you cannot play all 4, and that is a waste of resources. Better to trade one of them for something else you could use and keep Gross to fill the 4th outfielder position.

by bobr on Aug 25, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm not sure who said he was overrated

He is solid against righties and sucks vs lefties. He also plays very acceptable defense. That is what he has always been and that is what he has been this year. IMO he is playing entirely too much against lefties.

This is the problem with looking at the overall numbers with Gross. If you look at his numbers vs righties you would think that he should be playing every single day at a very good level. If you just look at his numbers vs lefties then you would think he would have trouble cracking your beer league softball team’s line-up. If you look at his combined numbers you fail to see his strengths and weaknesses.

The conclusion is everyone needs to look at Gross through intelligent baseball eyes. He SHOULD finish with very good numbers (esp ratios) since he SHOULD only play against righties. However, everyone needs to realize that if he played against lefties that his numbers would drop like a rock.

by matthan on Aug 25, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions  

should of...

kept Haynes and never traded for Gross…

by BAYAreA on Aug 25, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions  

....Why?

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 25, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hate to harp on what is becoming a cliche

but we really do have to be careful about sample size when looking at splits too. Although still very poor, his numbers against lefties this year are considerably better than his career numbers. While I think it likely that he will always have a severe platoon split, if you look at his home/away splits and first half/second half splits, they are also exceptionally wide. While platoon splits may reflect cause and effect, those seem more arbitrary to me, so what conclusions can we draw? Perhaps simply that he hasn’t had enough time to demonstrate that he can hit lefties adequately.

In any case, the issue remains to consider his performance relative to his assigned role, not against some general standard for corner outfielders. If he is doing the job assigned to him, he cannot be overrated because some of his numbers look poor. Those who think he should be a regular are overrating him, much as many Rays’ fans overrated Wigginton. As a reserve/semi-regular, Wigginton was exceptionally valuable. As a regular, he was below average.

 If Gross could hit .280/.360/.460 as a regular, he would be one and likely would not have been available to the Rays. Good teams need players like Gross to stay in contention over 162 games. Ergo, he is valuable.

by bobr on Aug 25, 2008 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

the main question here

is Gross’ expected OPS given a typical L/R distribution of ABs. If you weight his right splits, say 75, and his lefty splits 25, what do you get? My guess is that it’s around 1.0 to 1.5 wins below average. A +1 win glove makes him average to a touch below average. that’s is definitely deserving of a platoon, well above fourth-outfielder status.

and, as I’ve said in the past, he would start for many AL teams this year: TOR LF, NYY CF and RF (Abreu’s glove is HORRIBLE), MIN, SEA, OAK (Emil Brown), KCR, etc.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 25, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

i want, and think the Rays can get, a significantly better RF for 2009, though.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 25, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

But he hasn't been the right fielder until recently

and that is due to injuries, which is exactly one reason he is on the team. I would like to get a better right fielder also, better than Hinske/Baldelli/Ruggiano/Gomes or whatever combination we were using. But I don’t think that has anything to do with Gross. Of course, if Baldelli is healthy and back on track, there is probably no need to focus on that too much.

by bobr on Aug 25, 2008 5:54 PM EDT reply actions  

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