BaseRuns, Luck, Ect.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 26, 2008 11:30 AM EDT Comment 19 comments

Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts ran the numbers on the remaining schedule for American League contenders. What he found was that the Rays average opponent winning percentage is higher than the Red Sox, but not by too much.

Tampa Bay

W-L: 79-50, 1st in the AL East
Games Remaining: 33
Home: 16
Away: 17
WAOWP: .524
Home Record: 47-18
Road Record: 32-32

Boston

W-L: 75-55, 2nd in the AL East, 1st in AL Wild Card
Games Remaining: 32
Home: 20
Away: 12
WAOWP: .532
Home Record: 43-18
Road Record: 32-37

A quick and dirty napkin calculation based on the season long performances at home and on the road have this unfolding like this:

Team	TB	BOS
Home	12	14
Away	9	6
Total	99*	95

Obviously I rounded up on _.5 numbers for both sides (like the 99/100 total wins issue...), so there's some room for error like with anything else. I decided to also run the numbers based on BaseRuns to see if either team was projected to be overly lucky or unlucky over 162 games, leaving some room for progression and regression over these last ~30 games. Here are the results:

	Baseruns	Real
RAYS	87	99
SOX	102	93

Basically we're on pace to win 12 more than our BR pythag suggests, and the Sox are on pace to lose 9 more. Naturally there's nothing that guarantees our regression will come this season, but as long as things don't completely even out over these next few weeks we should still be in the picture. Also for those wondering, over 32 and 33 games the Rays are expected to win 18 and the Sox 20, not quite enough to make up that 4.5 games gap.

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It would be a monster collapse to miss the postseason

Maybe not monster, but a very large choke job. Of course you were just looking at the ALE.

by matthan on Aug 26, 2008 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd argue that the Rays missing the playoff this year is a bigger collapse than the Mets last year

by matthan on Aug 26, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way.

At this point, we’re too far out to make that kind of prediction. Seven up with 17 to go is a lot different than 4.5 up with 30+.

by kericr on Aug 26, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm actually running some numbers now

While the Mets collapse was very large and in a smaller numbers of games the Rays will have to be passed by 3 teams. You can easily argue that 3 teams making up 5-6 games on us is just about equal to 1 team making up 7 in 17. We have to remember the only way we miss the playoffs is if the RSox, Twins, AND WSox pass us.

by matthan on Aug 26, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And also we are 6 games up in the wild card, not 4.5.

by matthan on Aug 26, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you could easily answer this question by using BPro's playoff odds report

what was the highest chance the Mets had last year (I’m sure they’ve mentioned it in an article). what is the current Rays’ chances of making the playoffs?

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 26, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's hope there is never a debate.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

From what I've seen

the Rays are making the postseason. The best chance for them to fail was losing the LAA and ChiSox series, which they didn’t. This Sox fan’s hopes of seeing his team win the division are almost gone. Even if the Rays lost a lot of ground, they’d still get the Wild Card.

That said, look for some real regression next year. Not only are the Rays getting good luck in beating Pythagorean expectation, they’re also getting career years out of Grant Balfour and JP Howell. Reliever performance is very inconsistent year-to-year. For example, last year the Indians and Red Sox had superb setup men in Rafael Betancourt and Hideki Okajima; this year Betancourt has sucked, and Oki’s been much less impressive. I strongly doubt the Rays will have three good setup men next year.

Maybe your offense will improve next year – Upton and Longoria both seem likely to perform better. I think Pena’s 2008 season is closer to his real skill level than 2007, and he won’t improve. Hinske, going by career #s, is a candidate for regression.

This year the Rays are the team to beat in the playoffs, although in a short series anything can happen. We’ll see about 2009.

by 0157H7 on Aug 26, 2008 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nitpicking here.

Is it really fair to say that a 25 year old is having a career year? Yes, Howell’s season is the best of his career to date, but he’s been a solid 4.3 FIP pitcher his entire career. He’s benefited from an improved defense (and GB rate) and some slight balls in play luck, but I don’t think another sub-3.75 FIP season or two is out of the question.

I would agree that the Rays will see some regression IF they keep the same players, but that’s just not likely. For instance: Hinske is a FA, Price will likely replace Edwin, and obviously there could be a few trades/signings made.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 26, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is Oki really having a down year?

i thought he just started a bit slow and has returned to form?

i agree that Balfour’s probably not this good, but he has made very real changes from previous years. and JP’s ERA is a bit low for his skills, but his ERA last year was a ton worse than his peripherals. Balfour’s probably like a 3.00 ERA guy and Howell’s more like a 3.50 ERA guy (he would be a smart guy to move back to the rotation if the Rays needed starters.)

Upton should improve just a bit next year— his power taking a step forward.

Carlos Pena should be about the same again, maybe slightly better — keeping his pace since the injury.

I’m not sure Longoria should be expected to be much better — natural improvement, yes, but being so strong this year was a pleasant surprise. And you never know about the wrist.

Other likely improvements next year: a better CC, a better RF (through a trade), Bartlett all year, Price in the rotation over Jackson.

It’s almost nice to see that 87-win number — it’s exactly what the smarter experts were predicting. If Rays fans can enjoy the playoff ride this year, but temper their expectations next year, that would be ideal.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 26, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I looked at Okajima's #s and thought he was having a fine season as well.

Delcarmen is an absolute monster as well who doesn’t get enough credit.

I think Balfour is the more likely of the two to regress, simply because I’m not sure if he can truly succeed only using his fastball. Yes it’s worked to this point, but the process of using one pitch, despite how good it is, doesn’t seem like a good one.

IF the Rays can win the division this year I will be amazed and thrilled, but I make no mistake that the Red Sox are the better team this year and maybe for the next half decade. They have I believe ~30 million coming off of the books and only possess two legitimate holes (SS, C) one of which may be filled by Lowrie and the other by a pre-arb trade.

That organization is extremely well ran from top to bottom and almost TOO well ran for the rest of us. Beating them one is quite an accomplishment from the Rays perspective, even if it was a bit of luck.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 26, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Delcarmen is an absolute disaster. He’s been kept out of most high leverage situations, and in those that he enters he’s almost always unsuccessful. In save situations this year, prior to his last appearance, he was 1 for 9. In that last appearance, he pitched a scoreless inning against Toronto with a 1-run lead. He gave up a hit 3-2 to the leadoff batter, and then went to 3-2 against EVERY SINGLE BATTER (iirc). He got through the inning unscathed, but he could just as easily have walked in a run with the bases loaded. In his case, the FIP is deceptive, not his ERA.

Okajima is still having a good year, but he has not been as dominant. He had especially bad numbers with inherited runners to begin the year (an area he excelled at in 07). He was so good for so long last year that it’s almost impossible to replicate that success.

An important consideration is that the Red Sox are dealing with a plague of injuries almost as bad as 2006. We lost Ortiz for over a month, we lost Schilling for the whole year, Lowell’s down, Drew’s down, Beckett’s day to day. Our bench is awful, Cora’s the starting shortstop, Lowrie’s the starting 3Bman. The team is in tough shape.

by 0157H7 on Aug 26, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disaster?

He’s got a sub-3 tRA, that’s really, really good. I wasn’t aware of going deep in counts, but he’s not giving up the things that create runs. A 10 LD% for instance with a .280 BABIP just doesn’t fit. His pLI is third on the team behind Paps and Okajima and he’s been successful overall.

Obviously I don’t watch the Sox nearly as much as you, but I classify him as a good reliever.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 26, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He isn't good.

He has the potential to be good, but right now he isn’t. You can find things he does well, like the low LD%, or high K-rate. But that hasn’t resulted in suppressing runs, which at this point in the season is what matters. If he pitches in the Rays series, take note. You’ll see nasty stuffy: a 95+ mph FB, a decent change-up, and (maybe) a good curve. These will be located badly, so they either miss the strike zone entirely or be right in the middle. There’s a reason he’s given up this many runs, and it’s not bad luck. It’s bad pitching.

by 0157H7 on Aug 26, 2008 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you using ERA to judge him?

Because I’m not, and I feel like that’s what’s being lost in translation here. His FIP is 3.39, his BB/9 is lower than most of the Rays relievers, and he has a solid K rate.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 26, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wouldn't use inherited runners scored to judge a pitcher

that’s a measure of his clutchness, which, well, isn’t really a skill.

from last year, Oki’s K-rate is down a touch, his walk rate is up almost 50%, he’s allowing many fewer groundballs, a few more line drives, and more infield popups. his BABIP is up from about .230 to .270.

he’s been worse this year, but not by much. tRA puts the difference at about .45 runs of ERA.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 26, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Oki's tRA is better than everyone on the Rays except Grant Balfour

(and Howell by .05 points)

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 26, 2008 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the problem with Delcarmen and Oki is that at any moment they look like they can fall apart

They just look real shaky out there at the moment. Of course that means squat. What matters is the real result and not the ‘what ifs’. They are doing a pretty good job.

With pitchers perception really becomes reality for almost everyone. Even the biggest stat geeks. We have some guys on our team that we kind of cringe when they come in, but they haven’t been THAT bad. And we have some guys that we think could have prevented every single one of Babe Ruth’s home runs. We have that much confidence. But they aren’t that good.

In other words it is just human emotion tricking you.

by matthan on Aug 26, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs