Rays Likely to Claim Fuentes

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 27, 2008 12:49 PM EDT

The Dodgers are likely to claim Fuentes, along with the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays, the two teams that pushed hardest to acquire him last month. If Fuentes is claimed, the Rockies can work out a trade or pull him back. They have made it known they want a premium young starting pitcher, which they consider more valuable than the two compensatory picks they would receive when Fuentes departs as a free agent.

I love the bold part. The Rockies want a top pitching prospect instead of two picks in a crapshoot? Is there a team that would say "Oh, no thank you sir, I'll take my two lotto tickets instead of my paycheck."?

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Teams are overvaluing the heck out of draft picks these days

9 times out of 10, the compensatory picks turn out to be nothing better than roster fodder. For a smart GM, trading away players before they hit free agency might be the new market inefficiency.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 27, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions

Baseball analysts did a great series on the draft being the new market inneficiency

Check it out it’s pretty interesting.

by rglass44 on Aug 27, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

i've seen studies that put the value of two compensatory picks at about $10MM to $15MM

take the distribution of 1st/2nd performance (some studs, some regulars, some backups, many flame-outs). for each, compare the cost of acquiring that talent on the free agent market versus having it cost-controlled for six years. the average value of two 1st/2nd round picks is in the $10MM to $15MM range. it’s a big deal.

of course, the expected savings on someone like Price is probably more like $20MM to $30MM and has the potential to be near $100MM

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 27, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

That seems high to me

Maybe that’s the savings versus getting someone comparable on the free agent market, but that also doesn’t account for having other players within the system. The vast majority of guys drafted in the comp range are replacement level or below, which means that $0 value should be assigned to those players in savings terms. There are so few studs (which is really where you get the savings) in that range that I’m still not sure it’s worth it, especially if you’re able to get someone you know will probably be solid but not spectacular in return. Take for instance Aubrey Huff. We got Zobrist and Talbot in return. Neither are gamebreakers, and there’s not a ton of value there, but the team will get some value out of them, and there’s about a 90% chance that we’ll get more value out of those two guys than we would have gotten had we received two supplemental first rounders.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 27, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Not so sure the Rays brass would agree. How do you think the Rays built this team? With draft picks...lots of em

The compensation for Fuentes would be significant. More than roster fodder in most eyes

by TheUltimateBucFan on Aug 27, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Only partly true.

Of the 25 man roster, the following were either free agent signings or acquired in trades:
Navarro; Pena; Iwamura; Bartlett; Hinske; Gross; Ruggiano; Gross; Aybar; Kazmir; Garza; Jackson; Wheeler; Miller; Howell; Bradford; Percival; Balfour; Floyd.

One could quibble that Bartlett and Garza were acquired for a #1 pick, but none of the others came to TB for any significant minor league talent.

And of the remaining players, only Longoria and Upton were 1st rounders, which means every other team had an opportunity to pick Crawford, Shields, Sonnanstine, Hammel, Riggans, Salas.

In other words, of the players who have contributed at the major league level this year, only 3 (Longoria, Upton and Baldelli) were 1st round picks. It is misleading to say the Rays were built to contend because they had so many high picks.

by bobr on Aug 27, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Off topic: Kaz interview on the Rome show coming up

Even if you’re not a fan of Rome, you can tune into 620 WDAE to here Kaz in a few moments.

by steve-o1285 on Aug 27, 2008 1:33 PM EDT reply actions

and of course they bring up attendance

by steve-o1285 on Aug 27, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

what else was said?

by davidsmarch on Aug 27, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty much everything you would expect

What it’s like to be on such a young team, whether or not he thought it would happen this fast, blah blah blah. Kaz’s answers were pretty standard.

With the attendance issue he said, “It’s disappointing” and that he and the guys always ask each other, “what do we have to do to get people to come out.”

ugh

by steve-o1285 on Aug 27, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Field a team of strippers and offer free lap dances after the game

because I’m not interested in seeing MC Hammer.

by kericr on Aug 27, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Why don't we just bring up Price and put him in the pen

Price/Howell/Miller should be fine lefty wise.

by matthan on Aug 27, 2008 2:28 PM EDT reply actions

that would be so fine that if the opposite team led off the game with a left, i'd let Miller take him out, then bring in the starter

Balfour, Howell, Bradford, and Wheeler is all you need for pitching in close games. Hammel and Salas can mop up. And Percival can stay on the DL.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 27, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

our pen is not the problem....

injuries and our platoons are our problem. more specifically the way maddon is platooning is the problem (say leaving gross in to hit a lefty as an example)

by matthan on Aug 27, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions