Percival!!
by pontormo on Aug 3, 2008 4:53 PM EDT
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PrintWe cannot get rid of Troy Percival fast enough. I don't know what his ratio of innings pitched to home runs actually is, but I bet it is off the charts. Balfour is already obviously a better closer, why wait until people boo when Percival comes in the game? They are going to have to lose someone to activate the next player who comes up, I can't think of a better choice, although Gomes is giving him a close run.
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Reyes has to be the guy to go.
He’s been garbage recently. Miller’s going to stick because he’s our other lefty since Howell is used for late inning setup work. Hammel’s too young to give up on, and he’s actually been pretty decent out of the pen recently (albeit not in very high stress situations), so I’m hoping he’s finally starting to figure this “relief pitching thing out”. No reason for Reyes to still be around though, I’d like to see Salas or Niemann get a chance (poor Niemann, i feel bad for him rotting in Durham. No one even really wanted him in a trade. I feel like at worst he could end up as a Jon Rauch-esque reliever, with better stuff.)
Miller's good against lefties, right?
So as long as he’s a LOOGY, he has value. I can’t see Reyes or Hammel pitching in any meaningful situations the rest of the way, though.
hopefully hammel can have a good last half of the year
and be ready to be a bigger part of the pen next year. Miller’s not bad as a LOOGY, but he seems to walk all the good ones he’s brought in to face. But he definitely still has a place on this team. It’s not gonna matter too much in september/october though, as Price will most likely be up then.
by hibachi7_7_7 on Aug 3, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
Hammell last 10 2/3 innings (since july 4th) only 2 ER
He gets it pretty hard on here but for what he is (last guy out of the pen) and his age, he isn’t that bad.
where are the "he's getting it done ugly" fans of Percival today?
the fact that Percival has a bunch of saves where he pitches with a 2-run lead and allows one run means two things:
1. it doesn’t take a great reliever to hold a 2 run lead
2. Percy should not be allowed near games with a lead of less than 2 runs
Howell and Balfour are obviously better pitchers and Wheeler has a good case (although he, too, is significantly overrated). Howell and Balfour need to pitch the important innings (ideally playing L/R matchups to a certain extent) and Wheeler and Percival need to be the options we use when using Glover-types still isn’t an option.
Rule 3 (which if it were enforced, not as many people would be calling for his head right now)
One inning limit for Percival.
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 3, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Percival has given up many runs this year.
It’s just that many of them have come with multiple-run leads. Once you start letting him pitch with one-run leads or in tie ballgames, those runs are going to cost the team. He’s no better than the third-best reliever on this team. He should be used as such.
Sure, two innings are tough. But it’s not just tonight that he’s been iffy.
I think almost everyone will agree
that Balfour, Wheeler, and Howell are all much better right now. So he is at best the 4th best reliever on the team. Honestly though he has pitched in many less high leverage situations even as closer than those other 3 have. So I don’t think I want to see them move one of those 3 to the closer role.
I can't find out how this is calculated
Do you know how? I wonder if they give extra points for it being the 9th inning.
Percivals high total could also be explained by him only coming in in save situations and almost no other situations. Is the 8th inning facing 4-5-6 considered higher leverage than the 9th facing 7-8-9?
leverage index
here are two articles where Tom Tango outlines a few recipes to compute leverage. a leverage index of 2.0 means the situation is twice as important as the average situation.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations-part-2/
inning, base-out state, and score matter much more than quality of hitter’s being faced. and yes, the fact that Percival rarely pitches in non-important situations makes his overall LI higher. but that makes sense, no?
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
I don't think Percy should be closing..
but his ERA is 3.86. So there is no way he is giving up runs as frequently as many here believe.
i might be guilty of overreacting to the past slightly
my bad.
going forward, I would expect that ERA to go up, though. he’s giving up 67% flyballs and only 8% are becoming homeruns. that should go up. and the Rays defense is good, but not to a tune of a .180 BABIP. if you knew a pitcher had a .180 BABIP, wouldn’t you like to see an ERA lower than 3.86?
My fear is that Maddon's "loyalty" to his players could cost us severely.....
Out of “loyalty” I believe that Maddon will stick with Percy no matter what. Let’s hope that Percy returns to early season form, but I have a feeling that won’t be the case.
Anyone know what Balfour’s contract situation is? If Joe wants to take this team deep into the postseason, he should make Balfour the closer. Percy is on his last legs, and Joe nees to put his mancrush for him aside and think of the other 24 guys on the roster.
best contract site out there
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/tampa-bay-devil-rays_112131227267025321.html
we just need someone who’s up on the rules regarding players with less than six years of service time but who have signed free agent contracts because they’ve been waived (twice). i assume he has two more years of arbitration based on 3.1 years of service time before this season.
I just do not see Percy setting up...
Do you guys realize how many leads Percy will have to blow to lose his job?? I don’t even want to wish for him to lose his job to strengthn the team (it is the logical choice to close with the aussie) beacuse it would suck watching that happen. Lets just root for Percival. He is our guy and our closer. Maddon will show loyalty and keep the 340+ save guy on the mound all year. Never forget that Percival has heart.
i do not want Percival to implode so that he pitches less important innings
I just want the change to happen magically. With Maddon explaining it in a way that everyone buys into it.
Normally online polls at major sites just show
the ignorance of the casual fan. But there is currently a poll on the Rays page of the SPT that asks ‘Who inspires the most condifence?” I think the readers got this one fairly right.
Current Results:
Balfour: 60%
Howell: 22%
Percival: 10%
Weeler: 7%
Everyone Else: 1% or less
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 3, 2008 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm surprised more people don't like wheeler.
Damn right on Balfour though. That man should clearly be our closer, and Percy should be our 6th inning guy. Percival would probably strangle Madden with his bare hands if he got demoted though. We all saw how pissed he got when Madden yanked him when get got injured in that one game.
look at his K rate, BB rate, and FB rate
he’s not bad, but he’s no where near as good as his current ERA suggests
They brought up Perci's numbers after the game....
26/29 in save situations. All the games he has blown, we have come back to win.
So techinically we’re 29-0 in games where percival has come in to save the game.
Here are the ones above him in saves (SV, ERA, WHIP, BSV – Yahoo):
Francisco Rodríguez 45 2.42 1.22 3
Joakim Soria 31 1.42 0.69 2
Jonathan Papelbon 31 2.05 0.87 4
George Sherrill 30 4.23 1.46 6
Brian Wilson 30 4.36 1.50 2
Joe Nathan 30 1.18 0.90 2
Brad Lidge 28 2.25 1.19 0
José Valverde 27 4.38 1.32 6
Billy Wagner 27 2.30 0.89 7
Mariano Rivera 26 1.49 0.72 0
The 2006 American League
Was 952-92 when leading after 8 innings. So if 9-1 or 10-1 is your benchmark, that doesn’t look so impressive.
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 4, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
For example
Last year, with a historically bad bullpen, we were still 52-10 when leading after 8.
by GomesSweetGomes on Aug 4, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he shouldn't be replaced with a better option in our bullpen
Just stating what Todd Kalas said.
My post on other closers is to show that in the top 10 closers in the league right now (in saves only), 3 have 4+ ERA’s.
which shows what a crappy stat the save is
if people want a stat that measures preventing runs in important situations, just go with WPA from fangraphs. of course, it suffers from most of the same problems as ERA, being very fielding-dependent.
Howell is 9th
Wheeler is top 20
Balfour’s top 30
Percival’s on the second page, next to Mike Adams of the Padres
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
As someone who dislikes having a designated closer
preferring situational use of relievers, I agree completely with the idea that Percival should not automatically come in to preserve one run leads in the 9th inning.
But I also am pretty sure that will not soon change. This team has made a big fuss about their psychological preparation and the spirit it has engendered, and as suspicious as many of us may be about the reality-and whether it is a chicken/egg question about winning and spirit-I do think it is risky to make such a change before it is clearly necessary to everyone.
In any case, twice now Maddon has removed Percival during an inning, suggesting at least some flexibility on the matter, something I have seen other managers unwilling to do. I also think it pure conjecture that Maddon’s decision are based on personal likes or dislikes or previous relationships (rather than rational decision-making) beyond the obvious point that some such relationships may give him insight into a player’s capabilities.
There may be other solutions anyway. Percival began the year brilliantly and was still very good through June 14. After that his control weakened and more recently he has been striking out fewer batters and giving up a lot more hard hit line drive/fly balls. Perhaps it is a combination of fatigue and injury, and more rest between outings or some less stressful appearances might return him to form. Rather than simply evicting him from the closer role and prestige, modify it for a time so as to rejuvenate him.
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