Pick'Em
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 31, 2008 12:45 AM EDT
Email
PrintIf you could choose three pitchers to add to the roster post-expansion period whom would you add?
A) Jeff Niemann
B) David Price
C) Mitch Talbot
D) Wade Davis
After you've made that choice now try and match the pitcher to his line:
A) 8.76 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 10.9 LD%, 43.8 GB%, 3.93 FIP
B) 8.21 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 17.0 LD%, 46.2 GB%, 4.18 FIP
C) 7.67 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 16.6 LD%, 54.5 GB%, 2.94 FIP
D) 8.05 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 22.4 LD%, 51.7 GB%, 2.97 FIP
Now who would you call up? Compare your answers on both and then get a glance of the answers after the jump.
Line A: 8.76 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 10.9 LD%, 43.8 GB%, 3.93 FIP
If you said Wade Davis, you are correct.
Line B: 8.21 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 17.0 LD%, 46.2 GB%, 4.18 FIP
Jeff Niemann, come on down!
That leaves:
Line C: 7.67 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 16.6 LD%, 54.5 GB%, 2.94 FIP
and
Line D: 8.05 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 22.4 LD%, 51.7 GB%, 2.97 FIP
Between David Price and Mitch Talbot. The homerun ratio all but gives the Price line away, meaning he is indeed line D. Had anyone else realized Talbot had been this good in Durham this season? Honestly how many of you immediately disqualified Talbot? Heck, I'm not even sure Talbot would make many of the top 10 prospect lists, but he's outpitching every other starter at Durham.
66 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
once you said pick three, it was obvious...
…that talbot would be that one… yeah, over the last 2 weeks, i have talked myself into being ok with them leaving Price down.
Does anyone here think that
a 10.9% LD% is sustainable. That sounds incredibly low, though I do like his K:BB. At this point I would bring up Niemann and Davis since either could come out of the pen and could probably use the innings off. Price could go either way, but if we leave him down he’s gonna come to ST with an empty belly and a whole lot of hunger. I could also go either way on Talbot. You can look at any MLB innings he got as a showcase for anyone that will attempt to trade for him in the offseason, but a showcase can work either way.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
Totally off topic but.......
how do they determine who plays who in the playoffs??
Talbot, Talbot, and Talbot
but you guys know my man crush on him already.
He should get the spot start in Baltimore for the DH late Sep, plus any others.
mark it down now, he will be a contender along side DP (yes that David Price) for the #5 spot in the rotation next yr (assuming Kaz,Shields, Garza, Jackson)
Davis, Talbot and Price
Price would be an outstanding lefty specialist to replace Miller. Trever couldn’t even get lefty’s out last night. I think Davis deserves a shot to see how he does. Talbot actually needs to pitch in the majors, not just sit there. One of those three needs to replace Sonny in the rotation. He was bad last night and is very hittable.
Incredible
Based on 1 game, you are ready to jettison players who have otherwise been effective. Does it matter that prior to last night, in 10 consecutive appearances, Miller had not allowed a run. In fact, in those 10 appearances, he allowed 3 hits, 1 BB and had 9 Ks.
Now admittedly, most of those outings were 1/3 inning, but that is his role, and he has filled it very well except for one bad stretch and a few other hiccups.
In fact, in his previous 4 appearances, he struck out the only batter he faced. What more could you want? And in his two full inning outings, he struck out 2 batters each time and did not permit a run. In 7 of those 10 outings, he allowed neither a hit nor a walk.
Does all of that not count and only last night matter?
I won’t even respond to the Sonnanstine comment as it overlooks an overall fine year.
good point -- Miller gets out lefties
how about his season stats? perhaps his L/R splits for important things like K/9, BB/9, GB/FB, etc.
even accepting miller is good against lefties, he’s not that great against righties. might Price be just as good against lefties and better against righties? it’s a possiblity.
but thanks for defending Miller, he gets a little too much crap from Rays fans.
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 31, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Miller gets beat up by fans
basically because of a 3 game stretch in July when he could not find home plate. That is the sort of thing fans remember, unfortunately. Otherwise he has been effective in his role, but whenever he fails, it is that stretch that becomes highlighted again.
As for Price, I suppose it is possible. But I do not know what the probabilities are. His Durham stint suggests he may have trouble with experienced hitters who will not be fooled by his off-speed stuff. Hardly definitive evidence one way or the other, but not encouraging.
I asked Will Carroll at the BP event at the Trop about Price. Carroll had attended his game against Indianapolis and thought he looked good but not great. I thought his response was a bit muddled, but what I got from it was that it seemed that hitters with some major league experience laid off his slider and so were able to time his fastball. And he also thought the change-up was simply not there yet. If anyone was there and heard differently, I would be interested.
Anyway, Miller’s season stats against lefties is .203/.310/.284 so far. He has 24 Ks (32%) and 10 BBs in 74 ABs, and again, some of those BBs came in that short slump. How much better could we expect Price or anyone else to do. His line vs. righties is awful, although partially due to a .375 BABIP. (Against lefties it is .294 which is not out of the ordinary.)
Miller is not a star, but my guess neither is anyone we have available to replace him.
by bobr on Aug 31, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Apparently when Jackson gets hit up
He’s just “pitching to contact”, but when Sonny does he’s “too hittable” despite Sonny getting more grounders (which is what pitchers should “pitch to”) and less walks.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 31, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is why we need hit f/x data because all grounders aren't created equal.
Sonny has given up 28 more hits than innings pitched. What is the reason for that? Is it because he’s been unlucky? Or is it because he keeps the ball down, but because his stuff isn’t very good, people still hit the ball hard against him, but it just tends not to get elevated as often? You can’t just cite ground ball rates and say he’s unlucky when you have no idea how hard the ball was hit.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
I wasn't saying he's unlucky at all.
I was saying people have funny perceptions when it comes to the two pitchers. If Sonnanstine gives up 10 hits in 6 innings he’s “too hittable”, but if Jackson does the same he was pitching to contact and got unlucky. Whether those hits are grounders, bloopers, liners, homeruns, whatever, it seems like there’s some difference between a Sonnanstine line drive up the middle and a Jackson liner up the middle. If it’s about processes Sonnanstine’s is far better.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 31, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Playoff matchups
The team with the best record plays the wild card team, and the other two division winners play eachother (better record has home field in each matchup).
If the team with the best record is in the same division as the wild card team, then the team with the best record then plays the division winner with the worst record, and the wild card team plays the team with the second best record.
I'd go with Talbot and Nieman (one will have to make a start)
DH in BAL
The other would be Price (bullpen)
More importantly who makes the playoff roster? or better yet, who doesn’t?
I say 11 pitchers for Round 1 with Sonny likely off or in the pen
Playoff roster -1st Round
Navarro, Riggans, Pena, Iwamura, Bartlett, Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Baldelli, Floyd,Hinske, Aybar, Zobrist, Gross
Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Jackson( SP)
Percival, Wheeler, Millerm Howell, Balfour, Bradford, Sonnanstine)
This is pointless.
If people would take
5.19 K/9 3.98 BB/9 1.10 HR/9 18.8 LD, 39.6 GB, 4.88 FIP over
5.44 K/9 1.61 BB/9 1.00 HR/9 16.8 LD, 42.4 GB, 3.92 FIP
Because of fabled consistency, then by all means, let them do so.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 31, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I know your in depth stats are nice
but EJax has given up more than 2 runs once in his last 7 starts and I last time I checked runs are what wins or loses games not anything else.
He can't continue doing this without improving his K:BB and and HR Rates
"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson
you could use the same argument for using W-L record for a pitcher
but it’s still a bad idea.
the point is that pitchers just can’t consistently give up 2 runs per start with a really low K/BB rate. shit happens over shorter periods, but to expect it to continue is folly. how do we know this? from what’s happened in the past. if you go find streaks of 2-run (or similar) appearances with a K/BB ratio at 1.5 (or similar) or lower, those pitchers’ almost always perform worse going forward. there just isn’t reason to believe Jackson is any different.
it’s been nice that Jackson’s only allowed 2 runs per start recently, but to expect it to continue is wishcasting.
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 31, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Line C (Talbot) is by far the best
A 0% HR rate is part luck and judging by GB%, Price and Talbot should have similar HR-allowed numbers going forward.
I didn’t know much about Talbot until seeing those numbers, but the walk-rate and ground-ball rate excite me. In the majors, he’d probably strike out about 6 per game and walk 2 to 2.5 — he’s like Sonny part deux and that’s a huge compliment.
Sternfan’s lineup ain’t bad, but of course I favor Jackson in the bullpen and Sonny in the rotation.
Per a scout.
His stuff is basically Shields lite + Sonnanstine. Good change, and like four-five other pitches with different grips and movement.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 31, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
eh, sounds like a junkballer. he'll never succeed.
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 31, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Talbot's changeup
Was rated tops in the organization and the IL.
by Kevin Gengler on Aug 31, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
John Manuel of BA's take
In this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet Chat:
Q: Otto from St. Pete, FL asks:
It’s time for you guys at BA to peer into your crystal ball and predict the future for us Rays’ faithful. Does Andrew Friedman plan to keep Price in Durham through their playoffs, or does TB’s bullpen need him now? How about Niemann, Davis and Talbot? Where will they fit in?
A: John Manuel: I’ll find out tonight at the ballpark. Niemann kills RH hitters and would be a useful reliever if he could warm up quickly but he can’t; he’s just not physically capable of being a reliever. Talbot could help. I think Davis will be in the mix next year but with the wealth of prospects and young big league pitchers the Rays have, Davis will either start next year in Durham or at best the Rays’ bullpen. He’s been impressive though at Durham. My pick is Price sticks around here; the Rays have plenty of pitching and J.P. Howell is filling the role Price would be filling very, very nicely.
I think Talbot, Price, and Davis.
http://www.raysprospects.com/
for one start, given the Rays' lead, I'd agree about giving it to Niemann
if he rocks it, his off-season trade value is HUGE
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 31, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I'm on the trade Niemman bandwagon too.
Anything that can help his value without further injury needs to happen.
"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson
btw, for the last 28 days:
Hellboy: 10.45 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, FIP of 3.32
A 36 to 8 K:BB ratio
"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson
let's assume the following pitchers live up to their potential and become/remain sub 4.00 ERA starters:
Kazmir
Shields
Garza
Sonny
Price
Davis
Talbot
Hellickson
What the hell do the Rays do with that? They also have Niemann, Jackson, and a bunch of other prospects who could be 4th/5th starter types (and probably some better names I’m forgetting). Yes, it’s important to plan for attrition, but they really need to make some trades this off-season. And not some of the worse names. Yes, losing one or two of Price, Davis, Hellickson, Kazmir, whoever will hurt. But the downgrade from one to another is not that big, and the gain of a similar stud for the offense will be a TON of fun. I’m sure this discussion will be huge after the season ends, but just wanted to bring it up.
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 31, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
...Sonnanstine's a sub-4.00 ERA guy now?
by Kevin Gengler on Aug 31, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
He has little room to grow, is my point.
by Kevin Gengler on Aug 31, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
And Jeremy Bonderman's skills have suggested he should be an ace for 3 years
and he hasn’t put up an ERA in the 3’s yet. We have no idea how hard the ground balls or fly balls against Sonny are hit. So all we have is results of about 2 full seasons. And everything I’ve seen from him suggests he can be a mid-4’s ERA pitcher.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
yes, one pitcher kills the model (sarcasm)
Bonderman also had injury issues to an unknown extent. but statistically, you’d expect some pitchers to outperform or underperform their FIP over extended periods.
i also don’t want to be one of those guys who claims that pitchers have ZERO control over BABIP or how their events combine into runs. i’m sure there are pitchers who give up easier batted balls. but it’s a much smaller skill than “traditionalists” assume and would only explain MAYBE half a run of Jackson’s “luck”. he’s a 4.50 ERA pitcher, at best, right now.
This isn't a Sonny v. E-Jax debate.
At least not with me. It’s a Sonny is a 3.75 ERA guy debate. We really need hit f/x, until then, traditionalist (like me) will still point to the fact that the guy has thrown almost 300IP over 2 seasons in the big leagues and his hit rate has been 10.4 H/9 for both season. Why has he been hit so hard? Is it bad luck, or is it because has average to below-average big league stuff. And despite his plus command, when it’s off slightly, he get hit?
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
well, last year's team had an awful set of fielders
why has Jackson’s hit rate gone way down? is his stuff better? i ask that for real, not to be snippy.
composite ERA would be a nice half-way stat between ERA and FIP. anyone know where you can find it?
and to clarify the 3.75 ERA thing...
2008 tRA: 3.97 —> 3.65 tERA
2008 FIP: 3.92
2008 xFIP: 4.45
so there are a range of “independent ERA” projections.
if Sonny gets hit harder than others (not quite MLB stuff or whatever), how is his HR per FB rate better than MLB average? luck?
replace Sonny with EJax on that list and your ok
A lot of people give him grief and I have done it before as well, but I bet there are a lot of team who would take a 24 yr old with a 3.81 ERA as their #4 or #5 any day
how many times have people discussed the Sonny vs. Edwin thing?
show some measure where Jackson is better than Sonny. and make it a measure that doesn’t rely much on fielding
Jackson is a 4.50 to 4.75 ERA guy given his skills. He’s been lucky — exactly like he was extremely unlucky last year. Sonny is a 3.75 to 4.00 ERA guy who’s been a bit unlucky this year.
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 31, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe we could flip E-Jax to one of the dumb GMs for funsies.
"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson
Maybe we could flip E-Jax to one of the dumb GMs for funsies.
"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson
I hope they trade Jackson, Sonny, or Niemann
and some other prospects for Ethier or Kemp this offseason
tRA isn't available for minor leagues yet.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 31, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
But if it was is it your personal
favorite for rating a pitcher?
How about GPA v OPS?
A friend likes G{A for minor league cause it doesn’t reward power that usually isn’t there yet
GPA is OPS but with OBP properly weighted.
wOBA is even better (weights the difference between singles, homeruns, walks, etc properly).
what really needs to be done is to park-adjust wOBA and i’m not sure statcorner.com has done that yet.
the lower you go in the minors (usually because players are younger), the less you should rely on stats and the more you should rely on scouting. why? because you’re not trying to judge how good a player is RIGHT NOW, you want to know how good he’ll be assuming he continues to develop based on his age.
GPA for a minor leaguer is most useful if you wanted to know how good he’d be in the majors RIGHT NOW (and, naturally, you’d want to adjust the raw stats since minor leagues are easier than MLB).
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Please read our Community Guidelines.
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
DRB Suggestion Box
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Heather Nabozny of Tigers, Nicole Sherry of Orioles: Women groundskeepers in MLB
- 10 notable team reps for MLB’s upcoming draft
- Rays’ gladiator helmets: Fernando Rodney, Joel Peralta do as Romans do (VIDEO)
- Rickie Weeks forgets number of outs, passes up chance for inning-ending double play (VIDEO)
- David Ortiz is angry that more people don’t see him as a leader of the Red Sox
