The David Price Quandary

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 10:57 AM EDT Comment 35 comments

The anniversary of Joba Chamberlain's debut is August 7th and while I'm sure not much will be made of it, outside of the YES Network of course, we could be on the verge of seeing something similar play out in St. Petersburg. The Rays are 51 games from finishing their season and have a lead, although slight, in the division that has prompted some fans to begin magic number counts. A young and talented contending team may add another young piece before too long as last year's top draft pick David Price is making AA look pretty simple, yet Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine have done okay as starters which prompts a few questions:

1. Why is it always "good young team' and never "good old team"?
2. Should David Price be a reliever or starter upon his promotion to the majors?

I decided to see what would be more valuable to the Rays by using Leverage Index and projecting Leveraged Runs Saved. The formula is (5.75 (4.75 for relievers)-ERA)*(IP/9)*(LI).

We'll assume that if Price came up today he would throw around 27 innings as a reliever, and make eight starts for 45 innings. A 4.5 ERA for starting, a 3 ERA for reliever, obviously he could do something like become Velociraptor Jesus combined with Mariano Rivera out of the bullpen, but for now we'll assume he's good, not great. We'll place the pLI of his relieving duties at 1.25 - roughly the 7th inning guy on most teams - and the starter pLI around 0.95.

Role	IP	ERA	LVG	LRS
Starter	45	4.5	0.95	5.9375
Reliever	27	3	1.25	6.5625

Above we see that Price saves a little more than a half of a run as a reliever over his usage as a starter. Not only does this allow the Rays to move on from using a Jason Hammel or Al Reyes type and instead use one of their best 12 pitchers, but also allows for one of their backend starters to improve on potential trade value as well as a sneaky way of limiting the amount of innings Price throws in his first professional season. Remember Price didn't pitch last season from June until spring training and in that first spring training inning he'd strike out the Yankees side that featured Wilson Betemit amongst other pros.

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I am in favor of him as a reliever at this point...

Adding him to the Balfour, Howell, Wheeler, Percy mix will be very beneficial. At the same time if EJ can continue to post similar numbers, he could become a valuable trade chip for this next offseason.

by td32 on Aug 5, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would keep Ejax over Wheeler

oh … also Throw Percy out of that mix it should look like.

Howell
Price
Wheeler
Balfour

In that order.

If you move Price to the rotation next year it would go
Howell
Ejax
Wheeler
Balfour.

Just my two pennies.

by PewterPirate55 on Aug 5, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather him be a reliever for a few reasons

1. The starters are doing just fine. Price may be better and he may be worse. No need to experiment.

2. He has a much greater chance at success as a reliever

3. It helps the trade value of Sonny/Jackson

4. In the playoffs you do not need 4 starters, let alone 5. Your 4th starter may start a game or two at the most anyways unless you make a serious effort to start him. Therefore come playoff time Price would be in the bullpen anyways so he should begin to get used to that sort of role.

by matthan on Aug 5, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bring Price in as a reliever..

And if he’s needed for a spot start, fine. I am more than certain he will outperform Reyes or Miller.

by John 63 on Aug 5, 2008 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if anything jason hammel is our spot starter if needed

longo=ROY. friedman=Executive of the year. Maddon=Manager of the year. Rays=WS champs 08! fiddler cat=best way to show your excitement middle name lamar=success, last name lamar=fail, sorry chuck! pause not!

by RaysOfHope on Aug 5, 2008 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

most pitchers are one run better as a reliever than a starter

so I’d suggest RJ use 4.50 and 3.50 as the ERAs or 4.00 and 3.00.

also, any reason to use .95 for starter LI? Most starters are right around 1.00.

I’m also in favor of Price in the bullpen—between Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny, the rotation is set for both a three and four man playoff rotation. I doubt Price is as good as, let alone better than, either of those guys as a starter right now. The bullpen would also limit his 2008 innings while exposing him to major league hitters. Relievers are able to throw harder, focus on their best pitches, and don’t have to adjust the second time through the order. That would give Price a great first taste of the majors and give him a great opportunity to succeed.

Going forward, he’s a starter. Discussion over. (Ok, we could discuss if he’s a long guy out of the bullpen for the first half of 2009.)

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 5, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eyeball tested Shields/Sonny to make an estimate on pLI

Rerunning the numbers with tweaked LI and ERAs:
SP 6.25
RP 4.6875

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen or bust...

I agree. Adding Price to the pen would allow everyone else to take a step back and maybe lead to the end of the Percy as closer deal.

I’m not exactly sure how I’d slot them. I’d say Price/Wheeler/Howell/Balfour and then just mix Percy in whenever it’s safe. I still think Balfour is the best bet in high leverage situations due to the very high K rate though Howell may be a safer option.

by tallyray on Aug 5, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To add...

The Rays have been incredibly lucky with health this year, but if needed who would you rather have the spot start, Price or Niemann?

by tallyray on Aug 5, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um, not really

Rocco was supposed to be the starting RF this season and hasn’t played a game. Kazmir missed the first month and a half of the season, Percival’s missed a month of time being on the DL this year, so has Reyes. Bartlett, Navarro, Floyd, Glover, and Aybar have also missed time with DL stints. The Rays have not been particularly lucky with health this year at all. It’s more that the Yankees and Red Sox have had rather bad luck with injuries this year.

What the Rays have been lucky with is getting production out of the guys who have stepped in when these players got injured.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Noting Glover but not Garza is a shame.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I used ESPN's transaction tracker to double-check my off-the-head figures

I thought he went on the DL this year, but ESPN didn’t note him going on through it so I didn’t put him down. I forgot he went on at the very beginning. I knew my starting pitcher count was off somewhere.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats what you get for using ESPN.

Also, I’d consider us lucky, too. While we have had more than a few DL stints, none of them have been too serious.

But most importantly, we have a totally healthy team and its August.

by Vin on Aug 5, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

by davelrogers on Aug 5, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not agreed

And I don’t feel like stating what I just said differently to try to convince either of you otherwise.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good.

The less of you I have to read, the better.

by Vin on Aug 5, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zing.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well that's good, because I don't argue with idiots

After all, they bring you down to their level then beat you with experience.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zing.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While I don't agree with what you say, sir

I’ll defend to the death your right to say it.

But really, I concede the burn. It was better than mine.

by Vin on Aug 5, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You'll do better next time.

And I do respect your opinions, but yeah, we’re probably not going to agree on that.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant SP health...

And I still think they’ve been pretty lucky. There have been 5 teams this year with 5 starters over 17 GS. The Rays/Sox/Twins/Phillies/Jays. The Jays have since lost McGowan for the season. I know a lot has to do with quality (since some players don’t reach a lot of starts because they’re terrible), but that’s still a pretty good run of health.

Last year only one team had 5 starters reach 25 starts (White Sox) and the Rays could get there.

To agree, I’ve always said the Rays biggest advantage is their depth, which is something that Friedman had been working on for a couple of years.

by tallyray on Aug 5, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That makes more sense.

You could also compare the number of starters the Rays had this year to last year and the year before. Granted, the previous two years new starters had come in to replace existing ones due to both injury AND ineffectiveness, but the consistency of the starting pitching this year in compared to years past has been a great relief.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Balfour/Howell/Price/Wheeler/Niemann/Percy

The Rays actually would actually have a fantastic bullpen for playing L/R matchups instead of using a closer-setup8-setup7 format.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 5, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RP

I agree that he brings more value to the team as a RP this year. We don’t have to deal with bumping a fairly effective starter from the rotation, and we get bullpen help.

2 things though. If we’re going to do this, we should let him pitching in relief a bit in AA or AAA first. No reason to transition things at the ML level, that’s silly.

We do end the season with 8 games in 7 days. Don’t know if they’ll all matter (for good or for bad), but that’s the schedule (rather brutal schedule, at that.)

BTW – No way other than injury that Percy loses the closer role on this team.

by TallMatt on Aug 5, 2008 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how long to transition to reliever?

4-5 appearances? i would guess a starter just needs the experience of gauging how much effort he can use on each pitch if he’s just going an inning. and probably work on control a bit with that extra effort. and pitches might move a little more/differently with extra effort.

Percy would also lose the job if he completely went in the tank, but let’s not root for that. And there’s a small (20%?) chance Maddon makes a move if Balfour continues to strike out 15 per 9, I think.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 5, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, i don't think it's much

I just think he should try getting used to pitching more than once every 5 days in the minors before doing it in the majors.

by TallMatt on Aug 5, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree - just wanted to think through how much time was needed

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 5, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any chance they Don't bring him up this year.

If we keep cruising with a 3-5 game lead, would they just leave him down?

BOHICA

by Mr. Tonight TB on Aug 6, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Solid effort.

obviously he could do something like become Velociraptor Jesus combined with Mariano Rivera out of the bullpen

Not quite Jeffian though.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Aug 5, 2008 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by kericr on Aug 5, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post

I agree 100%. Hopefully this lays to rest the idea of having him start this year.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 5, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just one thing

Price was electric in his spring inning against the Yanks.

But striking out Wilson Betemit is no great accomplishment.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 6, 2008 2:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One other thing

I agree Price would likely be most valuable as a pen addition. And I think this season it should be about winning for the Rays.

But keeping up his innings pitched load is also of value for the future. And the main argument made in moving Joba back to starting was the added value of an outstanding pitcher in significantly more innings pitched.

And with only 1 off day, and a DH to boot, after Sept. 1 a 6th starter could be handy for a young rotation hitting career innings highs, pitching critical games, and facing the playoffs. If its still in doubt come that road DH in Baltimore who do you want as the 6th starter then? Lastly, is Price successful because of 1 or 2 dominating pitches or because of his ability to vary his approach as a game progresses with a broad arsenal?

Not that a tough pen lefty would hurt. I’m sure he’d do very well as a reliever – that fewer batters will face him multiple times should be a benefit.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 6, 2008 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs