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Ask anything statistcs related you can think of but have never gotten the chance to ask.

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EqA and GPA

What are the equations involved to get those figures?

by td32 on Aug 7, 2008 10:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

more important, yes.

but mostly to get OBP on the same scale as SLG. and, just incase anyone’s confused, the 1.8 is multiplied times OBP, not raise to the OBP-power.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

EqA and GPA

What are the equations involved to get those figures?

by td32 on Aug 7, 2008 10:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Please explain OPS

I’m not quite certain how outs per swing helps a team

by Jason Collette on Aug 7, 2008 10:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, when you combine Outs + Swings, you get a decent idea.

/sarcasm

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anybody know...

The average number of gallons Matt Garza spits out in a typical start?

by steve-o1285 on Aug 7, 2008 10:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

THIS IS GARZA!!!

The correct answer is 300.

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Aug 7, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How accurate are stats that calculate range for fielders?

It always seemed fairly subjective to me. Would an “average” fielder have gotten to that ball? Do they take into account how hard a ball is hit?

by stpetelawyer on Aug 7, 2008 10:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd say they're still iffy, but getting better. They take account fielding zones and whether average fielders would get to a ball.

But until Hit F/X we can’t go much further than that.

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A screamer up the middle vs a dribbler makes a huge difference

I just wonder how that is calculated. What is “Hit F/X”?

by stpetelawyer on Aug 7, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think Pitch F/X with Batted Balls

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, my blockquote won't work here

Range Factor is simply putouts+assists/innings played.

Range Zone Rating uses “zones” for each fielder in order to change the range plays. Let me guide you towards this BBTF piece on what each zone is like.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Range factor

is probably the most useless stat in all of baseball, more useless than wins, more useless than errors. I’d recommend never ever using it.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 7, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a full season's worth of fielding data is about as reliable as 1-2 months of hitting data

assuming that fielding data is play-by-play based. (i.e. zones.)

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Using a sample over yearly rate stats...

Pet peeve of mine is when someone states “Pena’s hitting .240 this year and that just doesn’t cut it”. Stats state what someone has done in the past, in this case all the way back to April. Looking at Pena’s states closer, here is what he is hitting when you chop up the months:

Since April 1st: .239/.350/.468
Since May 1st: .253/.359/.490
Since June 1st: .267/.383/.557

So is it fair to tie Pena down to that seasonal line just because his April was so poor?

Aki works the same way:

Since April 1st: .280/.351/.381
Since May 1st: .302/.368/.419
since June 1st: .284/.366/.404

With Aki he had a terrible April, very good May, and then the rest of the season has started to circle around his 2007 line of .285/.359/.411

Of course it’s easy to cherry pick to make players look better, but in both of these cases the players are just being weighed down by a terrible first month that doesn’t seem to represent their true ability.

by tallyray on Aug 7, 2008 10:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cherry picking indeed.

I too am guilty of this, but I think people are too quick to use such arbitrary cut-offs as “months” (or before all-star break, or whatever). For players with rather extensive track records, one month’s worth of stats is hardly indicative of their true level. Furthermore, “improvement” throughout the season can be quite misleading: yes, Pena has improved, but was his chance of getting a hit any different in an at bat on June 27 than it was on April 4? I don’t think it was.

You say that “players are just being weighed down by a terrible first month that doesn’t seem to represent their true ability.” How do you know that April is any less representative of Pena’s true ability (or Aki, or whomever), than June? Isn’t the whole point of True Ability that it takes into account both good months (or whatever other arbitrary date cut-off we choose to use) and bad months?

I really don’t mean to pick on you, tallyray, your post just provided an opportunity for me to rant. And I’m as guilty of cherry-picking stats as anyone. I think there is a time and place for finding “improvement” over a season, but that it’s overused.

by Peter Bendix on Aug 7, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my pet peeve is when people point to certain months of production instead of a full season (or longer)

given only 2008 data, we should pay more attention to Pena’s full-season .240 AVG than his .267 since-june-1st AVG. now, if we had more data, like 2007 and 2006, that would tell us Pena is more like a .260 hitter in talent and that’s what we would expect going forward. but the reason isn’t his since-june AVG, that’s just a nice coincidence.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Since when did this site start using stats?

And off topic, is LL invading us tonight?

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Aug 7, 2008 10:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think we're invading them

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure.

But they’re scared of us…well you.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Boggs

Is there anyone who has ever drank more beers than Wade Boggs? Also, what is Boggs’ official record for Miller Lites on a road trip?

by Devil Ray on Aug 7, 2008 10:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

70

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is a lot of Miller Lites. It just doesnt seem possible. He should make some commercials. Wade pounding beers while the two chicks wrestle in a fountain would be the best beer commercial ever.

by Devil Ray on Aug 7, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, bunting question

From a purely statistical perspective, is a sac bunt ever a good idea?

by stpetelawyer on Aug 7, 2008 10:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

When one run is more important than multiple runs.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Um, what?

According to Baseball Between the Numbers (if i remember correctly) the run scoring probability never increases in any situation by adding an out and advancing a base.

Even if it did the sac bunt is hardly a sure thing.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Aug 7, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Run scoring expectancy and run scoring probability are not the same thing.

Expectancy is how many runs you should score, probability is the odds that you will score a run.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hm.

I thought BBtN concluded the sac bunt is fine, but usually when one run is > three. I’d have to re-read the chapter.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

RJ covered part of it, but you also have to factor in the amount of time a person gets on base when attempting to sacrifice versus the amount of time they’ll be out or GIDP if they swing. Fact of the matter is that a sacrifice bunt makes sense a lot more often than the probability models say because they usually fail to account for this. Basically, the crappier and faster the hitter is, the more it makes sense to try to sac bunt.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 7, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

important point ^^^

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the best sac bunt, ignoring score, is with runners on first and second and no outs

you advance a runner into sac fly/passed ball scoring territory, an extra guy into scoring territory, and stay out of the double play.

MGL’s big point in The Book is that you have to use some game theory with bunting and switch up your strategies. if the opposing team knows you always bunt or never bunt, they can take advantage (play close and increase chance of getting the lead runner, or play back not letting you swing away with a drawn-in defense.)

The other interesting finding from the The Book is that the sac bunt is actually a better play than sabermetrics has traditionally thought. It’s overused, though.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unless you're the Oakland A's

They would make Jason Tyner swing for the fence

by steve-o1285 on Aug 7, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

Maybe their lineup forced a change in philosophy. I always thought they were “3-run HR or bust”

by steve-o1285 on Aug 7, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They haven't changed their philosophy in regards to the bunt.

They have 19 SH this season, the Rays have 16. That’s the lowest and tied for second lowest amongst all teams.
Bot 5
Red Sox
Angels
White Sox
Athletics
Rays

Top 5
Colorado
Mets
Reds
Braves
Dodgers

I’m actually interested in seeing how many of the bunts were by pitchers as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sac bunting in Colorado!

funny how the bottom five are all playoff contenders.

by LeftRight on Aug 7, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reds? Rockies? braves?

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, bottom ive, nvm

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

five*

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Playoff contenders in the AL

Notice the difference in leagues

by steve-o1285 on Aug 7, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is GPA a better stat than OPS and why?

Johnny let his baby brother sleep, through the back door and baseball, all the kids are waiting outside, Old days come and go too soon Old friends, heroes, lifetimes. Don't let a single memory fade away

by LeftRight on Aug 7, 2008 11:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

OPS itself gives more weight to SLG and undervalues OBP. Essentially the 1.8 is just to normalize the scales a bit and correlates better to team run scoring than OPS.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

on a related note...

OPS+ is pretty good, giving OBP almost it’s fair share of the weight. it’s also park- and league-adjusted, which is nice. but it’s still not “perfect” and underrates walks and overrates homeruns (to a degree of a few points).

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Strikes out more than BJ.

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like 100 for the year for Evan

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You think he might be tossing some of his at-bats when he gets to 2 strikes?

Serious question, since I haven’t paid too much attention to this.

by kericr on Aug 7, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

....no

this is MLB

But I wouldnt put it past Manny

by Acadien on Aug 7, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tony Gwynn did it

He actually talked about making changes in his approach to minimize it, but said that he, along with pretty much every major-leaguer, at times discarded at-bats.

by kericr on Aug 7, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's the weather like in your mother's basement, am I right?

Nah, but seriously: What’s the general league average BABIP, and does it vary by any significant amount from year to year?

by Kevin Gengler on Aug 7, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

.290-.310 range is an acceptable scope for BABIP

there are freaks like Howard and Ichiro that can repeat high BABIPs due to extreme skills, but older players rarely get out of the scope. If they do, it is a huge regression the next year. See Posada 2007 to Posada 2008.

by Jason Collette on Aug 7, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

.290 to .310 is the true talent range for pitchers

the spread for hitters is more like .250 to .350.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could someone explain Mark McGwire's 2001 to me?

It always seemed like one of the most bizarre statical seasons ever.

I love you Luddy.

by JI on Aug 7, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He struck out more, walked less, and saw his power drop for whatever reasons

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

HOW MANY TIMES DOES HINSKE

MOLEST HIS PROTECTIVE CUP WHILE IN THE FIELD OR AT BAT DURING A GAME?

by rayweaver on Aug 7, 2008 12:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah, I got another one:

Why are pitchers who get a lot of strikeouts really coveted, but strikeouts for hitters are considered “no big deal”?

by Kevin Gengler on Aug 7, 2008 12:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It means that pitcher doesn't put a lot of balls in play, which is a good trait for a young pitcher.

For the batter, Strikeouts are only slightly worse than regular outs.

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

balls in play are a good thing actually, as long as they're not homeruns.

OBP on balls in play is about .300 (same as AVG) and SLG is like .380. A .300/.300/.380 hitter is pretty crappy.

but yes, strikeouts are obviously better than a ball in play, and are way better than a strikeout. strikeouts are also a good sign that the pitcher can throw the ball over the plate without it being crushed.

hitters get to choose their approach to the plate apperance more - huge homerun swings versus medium line-drive swings. each one has it’s trade-offs. low-contact/big power vs. high-contact/low power. one route has lots of K’s, the other doesn’t. pitchers face a mixture of these approaches throughout the season - they need to pitch to counteract both strategies.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's also a key predictor of future success...

Pitcher’s can control Ks a lot more than other statistics. A high strikeout pitcher (walks matter too) is easier to project for the future than someone with low Ks. Groundballs tend to matter more as well.

by tallyray on Aug 7, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is there a way to use stats to measure

how “Ape” someone just went?

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 7, 2008 12:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Serious question

This ‘invasion’ that’s being talked about, is this the idea that one site’s community goes over and joins the other’s GDT? If so, assuming we’re going over there, I’d like to know if they have house rules? Do I need to take my shoes off? Can I eat their food and use their restroom? You know, stuff like that.

by kericr on Aug 7, 2008 1:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

TWSS

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 7, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Play nice and no furries

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cliff notes:

No +1
No “That’s what she said”
No furries
No large images.

A ban there = a random ban here given by STP.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 7, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what she said +1

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 7, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK... Not really stat related, but...

I am fairly new to the board here and I notice a lot of “inside” jokes/jargon and I’d love to get some clarification on what a few of them mean, so I can play along…

1> The “Box” or “being boxed” or whatever

2> Rec’d

3> FTW

That’s all I can think of right now.

by fogelberg on Aug 7, 2008 1:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Box = Temporary ban

Rec’d = Recommended under actions

FTW = For The Win

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 7, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I hold the box record!

FTW!

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Aug 7, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool...

Thanks for the clarification.

by fogelberg on Aug 7, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

to preemptively answer another question

several of the regular posters active in the Tampa-Orlando “furry” community

by gatorbait on Aug 7, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually curious about attendance figures

I know where I can get YTD figures, but I’d like to see if and by how much attendance has been increasing as the season has gone on.

by matthan on Aug 7, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Carl Crawford needs to sit BJ down and explain how much hell players like Jackie Robinson, Henry Aaron, Larry Doby etc. went through so kids like him could play in the big leagues. Run out everything. Period.

from espn’s “devil rays” message board, comment #20.

http://boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/mb?sport=mlb&id=tam&tid=3203265&lid=20

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Aug 7, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

2 Questions

1- Is there anyone else that arrives early to games and battles the kids for HR balls during batting practice?

2- During the 5th we (myself, & 3 others) normally head up to the cigar bar to enjoy a stogie. Which brand would you recommend? Pt deux: I usually dip the end in a brandy to sweaten the taste, is there another liquor or liqueur anyone can recommend?

by John 63 on Aug 7, 2008 4:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Anyone listen to duemig today?

god i swear that guy sucks dick for coke….I only caught the end of it after work but he was saying the rays should get rid of BJ because we don’t need him and Green bay got rid of favre so we could do without upton too…..WTF?
It was really frustrating….especially listening to the retards that call in to agree with him.

by UFfitz56 on Aug 7, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good thread idea, RJ

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 7, 2008 6:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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