Upton next year

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 3:30 PM EDT Comment 37 comments

Let's try this again. Some of you may have seen the previous fanpost I did of this, but I was an idiot and forgot BABIP took out HRs. That totally messed up the numbers.

Here is an attempt at projecting Upton's year next year. The balancing act is trying to figure out how much of his power will come back and how much of his plate discipline is due to the injury. I'm going to attempt some projections based on his changes the past year or so.

The projection is quick and dirty. I started with 700 PA which is a reasonable estimate for a top-of-the order guy playing 150 games. From there I estimated his BBs using a se BB%, this also gave me his ABs. I then used his career BABIP and set contact % to get the number of non-homer hits he'd collect. Using set HR, 2B, 3B per AB rates, I estimated his XBH. Adding the first number and his expect HR, I found total hits. I found steal attempts rate per times on first and SB success % and used those to estimate his SB and CS. To find RBIs and Rs I simply found the rate at which he scored and drove in runs per hit over the last two years and used those to find his projected R/RBI. This pretty much gave me all the stats I needed.

Let's take a look. The first 2009 uses his true ratios from 2007 for power and his new contact and BB% foir this year. Essentially, it is him regaining his power completely while losing none of the newfound patience. The second 2009 is his numbers if he doesn't regain all the power, but also loses some plate discipline. I used his career BABIP for the projections and same career steal statistics for both.

Year	G	AB	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	HBP	SO	TB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB%	Contact%	BABIP	2B%	3B%	HR%
2007	129	474	548	86	142	25	1	24	82	22	8	65	4	154	241	.300	.389	.508	.897	11.9%	67.5%	.399	5.3%	0.2%	5.1%
2008	136	504	607	82	138	34	2	8	64	42	15	91	2	126	200	.274	.387	.397	.784	15.0%	75.0%	.351	6.7%	0.4%	1.6%
2009	150	591	700	94	190	31	1	30	99	43	16	105	4	148	314	.321	.427	.531	.958	15.0%	75.0%	.360	5.3%	0.2%	5.1%
2009	150	605	700	95	175	36	2	18	87	39	14	91	4	151	271	.289	.386	.447	.833	13.0%	72.0%	.360	6.0%	0.4%	3.0%

Year	G	AB	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	HBP	SO	TB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB%	Contact%	BABIP	2B%	3B%	HR%
2009	150	603	701	106	181	36	2	20	94	40	15	94	4	151	281	.300	.398	.466	.865	13.4%	71.3%	.375	6.0%	0.3%	3.3%

You have to change to "WIDE VIEW" to see the entire chart.

If anyone wants different values for each just let me know and I'll plug them in.

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Comments

Oh thank God, I thought this got deleted somehow.

Rec’d.

Also can you throw up a median projection?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 11, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

.300/.398/.466

HOLY SHIT.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Sep 11, 2008 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

With a healthy shoulder...

I would expect him to have an OPS around .900 next season. He was able to Slug over .500 as a 22 year old. In 2009, he will have 2 full seasons under his belt. With his patience, and pwer coming back, I would expect for his OBP to rise as well.

If we can get .900 OPS out of CF, that would be tremendous.

by td32 on Sep 11, 2008 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

now if we can only convince CC he is not a #3 hitter

and put BJ there. 3-4-5 should be BJ, Longo, Pena

by Dbullsfan on Sep 11, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BJ should be second, even if he hits 30 HRs

best hitter second according to The Book yada yada lineups don’t really matter all that much yada yada i agree CC should be leadoff yada yada have Aki be the 9th hitter/second leadoff guy.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 11, 2008 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just an idea of how I would have it

RF- Rocco
LF- CC
CF- BJ
3B- Longo
1B- Pena
DH- Johnson
C- Navi
SS- Barty
2B- Aki

by Dbullsfan on Sep 11, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that being said with Maddon

I am sure we will have an all lefty line-up against righties and vice versa, who actually those guys are and whether or not they hit well against that pitcher wont matter.

by Dbullsfan on Sep 11, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rocco's never realy been a great OBP guy, right?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 11, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

EHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!

Buzzer!

Best hitter 3rd, wannabee best hitter 2nd. I’ll give you an example: Name that Yankee. A guy who was no more than an avg. player but due to the fact that there was a short porch in RF, hit after Ricky Henderson in his prime and before Winfield in his prime his stats were expounded enormously.

I like rating players by taking them off star studded teams like Miguel Cabrerra for instance but in reverse mode to see what they would have done. Cabrerra would star anywhere. This certain Yankee would have never, ever put up the numbers he did if he weren’t in the ultimate situation as a LH hitter in Yankee stadium. My belief is he is the most overrated player ever. Kinda like Joe Montana. If he were on the Bucs back then he may have had a 2-3 year career.

by John 63 on Sep 12, 2008 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't buzz me if haven't read the lineup study in The Book

third-place hitters often come to the plate with two outs and no runners on base (because of the first inning and the crapitude of the bottom of the lineup), thus leaving them with relative fewer chances to drive players in and making their walks/singles less valuable. you’d rather have your two best hitters second and fourth. second, because they’ll bat more often and will be on base with one out instead of two more often than if they hit third. and fourth, because they’ll either bat with a runner on base in the first inning, or lead off the second when getting on base is more valuable with no outs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 12, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you do not mean

Don Mattingly, because in his short prime he was on a Hall of Fame pace. Unfortunately, back problems sapped his power and his last 6 years were distinctly average or worse. But for 6 years he was an excellent player and in three of those among the best in the majors.

Of course his counting stats were helped by having Ricky on base so much. Gehrig’s were helped batting after Ruth. But while some partisan fans may overrate Mattingly, and while he is definitely not a Hall of Famer, he was an outstanding player, and for a short while, a great player.

by bobr on Sep 13, 2008 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BJ's HR/FB rate in 2007 was crazy high. and his BABIP in 2007 was crazy high

i think the middle 2009 projection is most realistic: .289/.386/.447, although neither of the two better ones are impossible.

with that batting line, he’ll be a top 10 player overall considering baserunning and defense. the best line would make him the MVP

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 11, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How sweet will the Longo/Upton combo be the next few years?

You figure Longo should hit like .290/..375/.550. Throw in Pena’s .900 OPS too, and that’s awesome.

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

6 teams have 2 .900 OPS guys, and none have 3

Imagine if we signed Dunn, Burrell, or Giambi. That’d be like 4 .850 OPS guys.

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

7 have 3 .850+, none have 4

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not even the Red Sox?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 11, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not that qualify for the batting title

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That doesn't include Bay/Manny/Papi

So, I guess they’ll have like 4-5 next year: Bay, Ortiz, Youklis, Pedroia, Drew.

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking Drew, Youk, Pedroia, Bay.

I didn’t even consider Ortiz. Sheesh.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 11, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so who knows how factual any of this really is

Thanks mlb.com for being stupid with your sortable stats.

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Upton is for one year going to be the ever elusive .300/.400/.600 CFer. Mark it down.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Sep 11, 2008 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd

But next time, try putting a little more effort into your posts.

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Sep 11, 2008 6:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's getting harder and harder to make this joke go over

by kericr on Sep 12, 2008 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody likes a quitter.

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Sep 14, 2008 4:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What would it look like if his BABIP is closer to a normal rate

rather than BJ’s career rate?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 11, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

normal for who?

Ichiro normal is .357. .302 is league average. How about we use Beltran (since we’re comparing Upton to him today). His is .328. We’ll use all the other numbers from the average line.

Numbers:

.267/.370/.433/.802 with 20 HRs, 36 2B, 98 Rs, and 84 RBIs.

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at this shows how flawed this projection is, though

58 XBH of 161. I guess you tend to lose the singles first though. Well, he did have 50 of 142 in 2007. So, that may not be that off.

by rglass44 on Sep 11, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ichiro is pretty much at the maximum true-rate for BABIP

So BJ should be at .340, maybe. also, are you bumping up his 2B/BIP rate at all over this season? an increase in power will also result in more doubles, not just HRs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 11, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs