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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Andy Sonnanstine pitched 7 innings, allowed 4 hits, no walks, one unearned run, and struck out 7. It was the most unimpressive dominant performance I've seen in a long time. He doesn't throw very hard, and though he doesn't walk anybody, his control is hard to figure. He looks like he's missing his spots, not hitting the catcher's target, but perhaps he knows what he's doing. He to give just enough of an illusion of wildness to keep hitters from sitting on his 88 mph fastball.

over 3 years ago Limes_125_tiny Sky Kalkman 6 comments 0 recs  | 

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Vladdy for Sonny?

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 12, 2008 10:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Sony is the most reliable pitcher we have. I just wish all of our pitchers had the same foused intensity he has. HIs focus is far more important over the course of a year than a 95 mph fastball. Sonny Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by rayalan on Sep 12, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I consider Sonnanstine to be a solid back of the rotation starter.

Not a star, but for a #4 or 5 better than average. There is no pretense of being sabermetrically orthodox here, but I am looking at his game logs for this season to see if my anticipation was correct that in any 5 starts we could expect him to have one terrible outing, 1 excellent outing and 3 so-so ones. All I am considering is runs allowed (not earned runs), not Ks or BBs or line drive rates or home runs allowed, all of which are more relevant in projecting forward I think. Rather I am looking at results this season based on my early season expectations.

Again, not necessarily defensible, but I am defining a terrible outing as less than 6 innings giving up 4 or more runs, a so-so start as 6 or more innings giving up 3 or 4 runs and an excellent start as at least 7 innings and 2 or fewer runs. I do not account for giving up 5+ runs in more than 6 innings, but that never happened anyway.

By those definitions, here is what he has done over his 29 starts to date:
Terrible starts=7. That includes a 5 inning outing giving up 7 runs, 2 earned on 10 hits, 1 BB & 7 Ks.

So-so starts=8

Excellent starts=8

That leaves 6 starts in a kind of limbo. Each was between 5-6 innings with either 2 runs (twice) or 3 runs (4 times) allowed. In 3 of those 4 times that he allowed 3 runs he pitched 5.1 inning twice and 5.2 innings once. The other 3 outings were exactly 5 innings.

That 5 inning start in which he gave up 7 runs, just 2 earned, has a typical Sonnanstine feel to it in that he started poorly giving up solid line drives in the first 2 innings and then settling down allowing virtually nothing over the last 3 with 4 Ks, 3 infield pop-ups and 2 ground outs. After allowing 2 runs in the first, he gave up a lead-off double in the second, got a K looking, a bunt single and another K swinging before Longoria’s error let in the 3rd run and then all hell broke loose with 2 line drive hits (1B & 2B) and a ground single to get in the other 4 runs. Then a weak grounder for out 3 and no more trouble. He came out after 94 pitches, most in the first 2 innings.

by bobr on Sep 12, 2008 5:28 PM EDT reply actions  

when is he is on

he is filthy and when he isn’t he doesn’t last long

by Underdogs on Sep 15, 2008 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

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