This needs to be bumped considering we just got our 89th win.

by walkoffwalk on Sep 17, 2008 12:31 AM EDT Comment 9 comments

This needs to be bumped considering we just got our 89th win last night

http://www.draysbay.com/story/2008/2/13/23610/8419

ugh, stupid word count.

Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP! Carlos Pena MVP!!

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So does this one

http://www.raysbb.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=9568

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 17, 2008 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i believe PECOTA had the Rays at 91 wins

In fact, all the more objective/stats-oriented projections had the Rays in at least the mid-80s for wins (ZiPS, THT, CHONE, PECOTA, CAIRO, Diamond Mind)

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_1

ok, so 80 from THT, 80 from Diamond Mind, 81 from Cairo, and 77 from ZiPS. Stil, yay.

those win totals will differ a bit from each system’s actual wins projection (if they ran one) because it’s a Diamond Mind simulation, just not adding up individual wins-over-replacement totals or a Pythagorean projection based on RS and RA.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To be fair to those projections in the low 80's...

Who would have expected Howell and Balfour to solidify the pen the way they have so far this year? Also, EJ has been exceptionally fortunate this season….those 3 guys alone have probbaly accounted for several wins above replacement. I’m not the numbers guy here, but Balfour and Howell compared to their spots in the pen last year have made a remarkable difference.

by td32 on Sep 17, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, isn't that the point of a projection, to make your best guess?

i’m not sure anyone could see that coming, but if you DID, more power to you, right?

i still applaud the projections in the low 80s — at least they saw significant improvement and were well above the Vegas over/under of 74 wins.

i’m also not sure how many of those systems used fielding projections — CHONE and PECOTA yes, but maybe none of the others, i’m just not sure. and that makes a big difference.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs