Nando!

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 18, 2008 10:50 AM EDT

(Photo by SRQMan)

As much as I would love to analyze Perez' performance thus far I just can't do it. The sample size is too small and emotionally I want Perez to succeed. Although I can say his amount of out of zone plays thus far is amazing. My only warning is obvious; don't be deceived by the small sample size, he's not quite this good, but you knew that.

Actual analysis post coming up later, but for now use this as a morning open thread.

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Read More: nando, Fernando Perez (CF - NYM)

Comments

At this point who cares if he's playing above his mean

We don’t know what his mean is, and don’t want to know! I just say keep putting him out there and maybe he can earn a starters job in RF!

by HAHAHA OH WOW on Sep 18, 2008 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

His defensive skillset is more suited for center.

Weak arm but great speed.

I’m curious what a C-Raw/Nando/Bossman outfield would do for our pitchers.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 18, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Nothing would drop.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Sep 18, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Peanut butter jelly time

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 18, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Upton in RF

He has the strongest harm and that trio would be absolutely sick. Question would be if BJ would by into that.

by JRays on Sep 18, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply actions

what, would be pissed off by the team needing him in RF?

PAGING DR. RJ

by Acadien on Sep 18, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, RJ's already noted more than once:

I’m curious what a C-Raw/Nando/Bossman outfield would do for our pitchers.

by kericr on Sep 18, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

OOZ

His OOZ will probably look better than Upton’s as well, because he doesn’t have Carl Crawford next to him making plays towards the edge of his zone.

I agree with JRays that Upton makes more sense in RF, but I don’t know if you want to toy with him by moving him around again. He’s still learning center as is, last thing we need is for him to spend two years figuring out how to play balls off the corner.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 18, 2008 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

Boy

Rich Herrera looks sad in this picture. Yikes, man….Ouch, Rich

Joe

by joedobr on Sep 18, 2008 11:58 AM EDT reply actions

I'm having a hard time not calling him Fernie.

I’m just so used to it.

by Vin on Sep 18, 2008 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

When exactly did he become Nando anyway?

Is it just a this-site thing, or is it in real life too?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 18, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Friends in Durham called him Nando.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 18, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Arms IMO are underrated in outfield defensive evaluations

So the idea of both CC and Perez in the same OF, or Upton anywhere but CF bothers me a bit right now. It was great with Upton in CF and Delmon in RF, Upton had a cannon for an arm and Delmon had a damn railgun attached to his shoulder. I’m satisfied seeing Upton and Gross because you still have two strong arms in the positions where they’re best suited.

You take an outfield with CC/Perez/Upton though, you now have a couple of crummy arms in left and center and a decent one in right. How many outs are we losing with a configuration like this, keeping in mind that a good number of OF assists directly result in saved runs?

by kericr on Sep 18, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

Good question, and it's one I don't have an answer to.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 18, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

How many outs are we losing with a configuration like this

Less that what we have this season I’m sure. Hinske, Gomes, and Haynes have started a combined 71 games in RF this year and 34 in left.

Gross has half as many assists (in RF) as Upton (in CF) in about half the innings, so I think its safe to assume that Upton could put up similar numbers in RF as he did in center. Considering Hinske is the only one out of that girly armed trio to have any assists (3), I think you’d get about the same amount of runners thrown out from a CC/Nando/Upton OF as we have with a CC/Upton/Hinske OF.

I would also think that the added range in CF and RF would negate any negative effect that might show up from having Perez’s arm in CF and Upton’s in RF.

by Vin on Sep 18, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Also,

IMO, CC/Upton/Gross is the best offensive and defensive OF we could field right now and next year, assuming a RFer isn’t brought in.

by Vin on Sep 18, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Hardball Times lists John Walsh's arm ratings for past seasons on their player pages

You can also view sortable tables for past years and filter by position in their stats section.

Weak arms are generally in the -5 runs range while strong arms are +5. There are players every year who hit +10, but that’s more because of dumbass baserunning. I’d say 95% of true talent OF arm skill is in the -5 to +5 range.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 18, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Awesome Find

Player in position: +/- Runs (these are all for 2007, 08 stats not available here)

Gross in RF: +1.1
Upton in CF: +4.6
CC in LF: -1.7

And Others:
Gomes RF: +3.0!? (28 Games)
Gomes LF: +0.3 (21 Games)
Hinske RF: -0.4 (9 Games)
Hinske LF: +0.9 (11 Games)

Gomes in RF is kind of a shock; 28 games seems like a decent sample size for this, and he was plus in 05 too (he had like 7 games in the field in 06). According to these stats, Upton saved the most runs of any CF last year across the league.

Ultimately, I don’t know how much value is in this kind of analysis, but I guess it’s a start somewhere.

I’ve always thought that Geico should change thier commercials to “It’s so easy, Jonny Gomes can do it” but then again, truth is required in advertising.

by kericr on Sep 18, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

are the numbers you quoted raw or prorated over a full season?

and as arm ratings are REALLY susceptible to sample sizes, i’d even include years prior to 2007 when rating outfielders.

sounds like a good fanpost research project…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 18, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

They're all Raw

And I wouldn’t use a set of numbers like this in a fanpost because I don’t understand how they’re derived (same reason why I never site tRA in anything), which is one of two reasons I don’t do fanposts (the other being that the longer a fanpost I write, the more dissatisfied with it I become).

Getting more involved with sabermetrics is on my list of things to do: I’ve always liked statistical analysis but I’ve forgotten so much that anything that I would do within this scope either would be inaccurate, or would take me so long to actually do that I’d lose focus on the subject on which I’m doing the analysis on. I’m hoping to have enough brushed up that by the beginning of the season next year I can start using it, but I’m not going to kid myself or anyone else here by trying when I can’t keep up with anybody who would be interested in seeing or hearing it.

by kericr on Sep 19, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think the outs are as big of an issue

as runners advancing from second to third. Crappy throwers often get more outfield assists simply because people try to run on them more (see: Rocco Baldelli)

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 18, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

i agree

i think baserunners and base coaches are actually a bit too conservative, so if you have a great arm (and it usually takes a while for other teams to catch on) you stop a lot of extra bases from occurring. Walsh (and Dan Fox at BPro) take that into account.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 18, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions