High Stakes for Kazmir

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT

Something that has flown under the radar for the Rays is the performance of Scott Kazmir. The team is winning despite Kazmir's tRA sitting at 3.99, the highest since 2005. Is there a reason for the young ace's regression, or is it simply a hiccup in his promising career?

Kazmir began this season on the disabled list with a left elbow strain. He was removed on May 4th and made his first start in Boston going four innings and allowing three earned runs along with three walks. Kazmir would go on a run over his next 11 starts pitching 68 innings, allowing 47 hits, 25 walks, 6 homeruns, and striking 70 outs while going 7-2 and earning a spot on the all-star team. In 10 starts since his relief appearance in the midsummer classic Kazmir has went 54 innings, allowed 47 hits, 27 walks, 8 homeruns, and struck out 65.

Most casual fans are going to see Kazmir's 10-6 record, 3.13 ERA, and 1.227 WHIP and assume Kazmir is having the best season of his career, and he is, for those statistics. However as we know those numbers don't tell the whole or even half of the story. Kazmir's strikeout per nine rates is down from 10.41 to 9.97 and his walk rate is up from 3.88 to 3.92. He's giving up more line drives and flyballs than ever and as a result more homeruns (one per nine).

To see if there was a noticeable change I went to the PitchF/x data. Kazmir is throwing his fastball at 92.68 (92.91 last year) about 77% of the time (69% last season) and throwing his slider and change less and slower (83 and 79 at about 11 and 12 percents respectively.) For actual break measurements, Kazmir's slider is breaking in to righties slightly more but not breaking down quite as much, making it more of a cutter and less of a slider, which could help to explain his increase in foul percentage. Kazmir's change is also breaking inside (to lefties) less but breaking down quite a bit more 4.1 this year compared to 5.75 last season.

Kazmir is throwing the same amount of strikes as he did in prior seasons, and more first pitch strikes, yet his average pitch total per plate appearance is up to 4.3 some bit higher than 4.06 last season. Kazmir is getting a few more strikes swinging and less strikes looking. Hitters are swinging at 50% of Kazmir's pitches and 78% of his strikes (both increases by 2% over last season) and making contact 74% of the time, which is again slightly up from last season. Last season post-all star break Kazmir had an amazing run and averaged nearly 15 swinging strikes and seven groundballs over his last 15 starts. Post all-star break this season Kazmir is averaging 12 swinging strikes and five groundballs.

It's probably not time to worry because Kazmir is still a good pitcher, but adjustments will need to be made if the Pitchf/x data is indeed correct. Kazmir has to bring his pitches per plate appearance down in order to become more efficient, in nearly 2,300 pitches Kazmir has gotten through 126.3 innings, Roy Halladay worked through 159.3 innings on roughly the same amount.

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I think they have him so PC consequence, it's screwing up his game

maybe if we stop posting PC when he pitches it would help

by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

If who stops posting pitch counts?

I really doubt the coaches go up to Kaz and tell him where his PC is. And if they’re putting it up on the scoreboard at the Trop, its his own fault for looking.

by Vin on Sep 2, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Tough not to see the scoreboard when it is

directyly behind you

by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

its not like its hitting him in the face every time he turns around.

There’s the one scoreboard that’s directly above the restaurant in center field that he would have to make a conscience effort to look up at (even though I’m 99% sure they don’t put the PC up there) and then there’s the big scoreboard in right field that should never be directly in his line of sight.

So that argument holds no ground.

by Vin on Sep 2, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus what are the odds that Kazmir is that heavily affected by his pitch counts?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

If he is,

then I’m sure it would’ve surface by now that he doesn’t have the mentality to be a starter and blah blah blah.

by Vin on Sep 2, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

You don't have to look at a scoreboard to know when you are throwing too many pitches

If it was a matter of him saying oh shite I’m at 90 in the 4th and then all of a sudden turning it on and throwing back-to-back 3 pitch innings it would be one thing.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

*conscience

by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2008 1:17 PM EDT reply actions

Late

Covered on Fangraphs like two weeks ago.

Kaz isn’t using his slider. If it’s because he doesn’t trust the pitch, that’s fine. That can be fixed in the offseason. If it’s because he’s afraid to throw it and get injured, that’s a problem.

by kericr on Sep 2, 2008 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

Cameron covered his pitch selection.

He didn’t cover the pitchfx data and the amount of strikes swinging and such.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

My conjectures

1. Remnants of arm-troubles have him throwing his slider less often and less violently. this would explain his drop in swings-and-misses, slider speed, and vertical movement.

2. With the improved defense, Kazmir thinks that it may be best forhim to “pitch to contact.” This would be evident in more fastballs, more pitches in the zone, and more contact. Because of the great defense and his tendency to limit damage because of his great stuff, the metrics that take into account defense are impressed with what he’s doing while the fielding-independent measures.

Either way, he has been effective, but his outings have been too short.

Interestingly, his foul-tip % is 5% from last year. This comes solely from his increases reliance on his fastball. It is fouled off at a higher rate this year (25 to 21%) and is thrown more. Whereas, his slider and changeup are fouled off at about the same clips. This implies that hitters are looking fastball because he’s throwing it more, and thus are more able to foul it off.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2008 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

terriblly written

I hope you guys understand all it said.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

1) I think that's possible.

2) Again, might be possible.

The overlaying problem is more with fouls railroading his outings more so than his slider/change being his second pitch.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

His foul-tip breakdowns

Fastball: 26%
Slider: 16%
Changeup: 10%

If he throws less fastballs, he would seemingly have less pitches fouled off.

Strikes-swinging %
Fastball: 11%
Slider: 17%
Changeup:18%

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

His fastball location is not great, that's why they dont get put in play...

He doesnt throw to the outer 1/3 of the plate on righties enough. He tries to bust them inside, where there is less margin for error. If he could locate the ball down and away with his fastball, he would get more balls put in play earlier in counts.

by td32 on Sep 2, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I haven't paid as much attention to as I should.

But is Navarro/Riggans usually setting up down and away with Kaz missing, or are they setting up inside constantly?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It seems they set up inside an inordinant amount of the time...

You can tell he prefers to throw inside on righties. Regardless, he needs to learn to pound the outerlower half of the zone.

by td32 on Sep 2, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

If you factor in the 5% increase in pitches fouled off

It almost totally explains his increase in P/PA. 4.06+(4.06*5%)=4.263

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you might be on to something

1.) I’ve thought this was the case all season, which I am fine with. I would rather have 80% Kaz than 100% Hammel.
2.) Why not pitch to contact, but if that’s the case don’t half-ass it and get them to foul off. You mentioned it more below, but I just want to be B.J. so I will post up here, but the silver lining of this season is that he has had to learn when and where to throw his change. If he is more confident in that slider next year and can bring his good change to the table you are talking filthy Kaz like we saw earlier in the season.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Speaking of PC, are they that important?

Many experts have debated this for a long time

I tend to be against them (PC)

by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2008 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

Mark Prior

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Dusty Baker doesn't care about young people.

by kericr on Sep 2, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

No.

All pitchers are different. Kazmir should be used more conservatively due to his injury risk (which stems from a history of injuries, I’m not saying that because of his body type or mechanics) Shields going 120 pitches is different than Kazmir but there’s not one limit for universal appliance.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Shields is also further past the window where pitchers tend to get injured more frequently

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Shields likely knows his limits better as well.

Unfortunately if Kazmir’s limit is 100 and he doesn’t try to throw tired he’ll be maligned like Erik Bedard.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Who?

exactly

Imagine this conversation is in three years.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it is mainly luck + the foul balls

Nothing to truly be worried about. Once he starts throwing more strikes I believe his foul ball percentage will drop. I think his increase in foul ball percentage is due to part of what you explained via pitch f/x data and also partially because teams are trying to increase his pitch count.

by matthan on Sep 2, 2008 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

I'd say we need to win tonite to maintain our lead

Orioles recalled RHP Radhames Liz from Triple-A Norfolk.

Liz is 5-3 with a 6.95 ERA in 12 starts for Baltimore this year. He’ll rejoin the rotation and face the Red Sox tonight. Obviously, that’s not a reason to pick him up in AL-only leagues.

by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions