How good has Longo been this year?

by rglass44 on Sep 22, 2008 1:36 PM EDT

I'd been wondering just how well Longoria's season stacks up historically against other rookie third basemen. So, I looked into it. Well, the answer was about what I expected, but it still surprised me none the less.

The method:

Started by pulling the 200 best seasons by 3B in their first year by runs created. Then, I figured what each player's RC/27 outs was by simply dividing the RC total that BR provided. Then, I attempted to control by run-scoring context. So, I divide the RC/27 figure by league average runs/game of the season and multiplied by 100. I called this RC/27+ because BR always likes to add "plusses" to stats that try to control for era.

Here's what I found, Longoria's rookie year is the third best season ever by a rookie 3B that played in a minimum of 50 games. Here's the top 15:

	Player	G	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	RC	RC/27	LG R/G	RC/27+
1	Braun, Ryan	113	2007	23	MIL	NL	102	8.27	4.71	176
2	Mueller, Bill	55	1996	25	SFG	NL	36	6.89	4.68	147
3	Longoria, Evan	111	2008	22	TBR	AL	81	6.96	4.78	146
4	McDougald, Gil	131	1951	23	NYY	AL	77	6.54	4.63	141
5	Hatton, Grady	116	1946	23	CIN	NL	67	5.53	3.96	140
6	Horner, Bob	89	1978	20	ATL	NL	54	5.52	3.99	138
7	Fryman, Travis	66	1990	21	DET	AL	37	5.84	4.30	136
8	Hinske, Eric	151	2002	24	TOR	AL	104	6.52	4.81	135
9	Pendleton, Terry	67	1984	23	STL	NL	40	5.43	4.06	134
10	Foy, Joe	151	1966	23	BOS	AL	86	5.16	3.89	133
11	Reynolds, Mark	111	2007	23	ARI	NL	65	6.22	4.71	132
12	Wright, David	69	2004	21	NYM	NL	45	6.11	4.64	132
13	Johnson, Howard	54	1982	21	DET	AL	25	5.87	4.48	131
14	Charles, Ed	147	1962	29	KCA	AL	89	5.75	4.44	129
15	Esasky, Nick	85	1983	23	CIN	NL	46	5.29	4.10	129

Now, that I had discovered that Longo's season was this good compared to third baseman, I wondered how he compared to rookies at every position who played a minimum of 100 games. So I did the same thing for all rookies, and he really surprised me here. Here's the top 25.

	Player	G	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	RC	RC/27	LG R/G	RC/27+
1	Williams, Ted	149	1939	20	BOS	AL	149	10.13	4.44	228
2	Mize, Johnny	126	1936	23	STL	NL	96	8.94	4.71	190
3	Page, Mitchell	145	1977	25	OAK	AL	117	8.47	4.53	187
4	Watkins, George	119	1930	30	STL	NL	100	10.59	5.68	186
5	Pujols, Albert	161	2001	21	STL	NL	141	8.73	4.70	186
6	Waner, Paul	144	1926	23	PIT	NL	116	8.24	4.54	182
7	Smith, Dwight	109	1989	25	CHC	NL	66	7.13	3.94	181
8	Arlett, Buzz	121	1931	32	PHI	NL	86	8.03	4.48	179
9	Braun, Ryan	113	2007	23	MIL	NL	102	8.27	4.71	176
10	Bissonette, Del	155	1928	28	BRO	NL	125	8.13	4.70	173
11	Robinson, Frank	152	1956	20	CIN	NL	121	7.29	4.25	172
12	Kearns, Austin	107	2002	22	CIN	NL	77	7.56	4.45	170
13	Meusel, Bob	119	1920	23	NYY	AL	84	6.73	3.97	170
14	Ennis, Del	141	1946	21	PHI	NL	94	6.70	3.96	169
15	Bonura, Zeke	127	1934	25	CHW	AL	105	7.88	4.68	168
16	Davis, Alvin	152	1984	23	SEA	AL	117	7.33	4.42	166
17	Conigliaro, Tony	111	1964	19	BOS	AL	72	6.44	4.01	161
18	Blefary, Curt	144	1965	21	BAL	AL	87	6.35	4.03	158
19	Hall, Jimmie	156	1963	25	MIN	AL	89	5.99	3.81	157
20	Keller, Charlie	111	1939	22	NYY	AL	89	8.17	5.21	157
21	Alexander, Dale	155	1929	26	DET	AL	141	8.35	5.36	156
22	Rizzo, Johnny	143	1938	25	PIT	NL	103	6.78	4.42	153
23	Longoria, Evan	113	2008	22	TBR	AL	82	6.90	4.52	153
24	Bagwell, Jeff	156	1991	23	HOU	NL	98	6.26	4.10	153
25	Torgeson, Earl	128	1947	23	BSN	NL	77	6.95	4.57	152

A few caveats:

Baseball-reference did not offer a "rookie" qualifier, so this data may be a bit incomplete. These are players who's first years were their rookie years, and any player who had a cup of coffee prior to his true rookie year is not in this discussion. If I wasn't so lazy, I'd look to see second year guys that had better seasons and find out if they still qualified as rookies. So, in this context "rookie" means first-year player and not all players that were rookie eligible.

Also, I am unsure which derivation of RC BR uses. I was going to use the more complicated 2002 version, but when I put it in excel the RC totals seemed different than the ones BR provided. Rather than trying to find the error in my input, I merely used their RC figure.

Top 10 seasons by a 22 YO 3B by adjusted RC/27 (min. 50 games played).

Cnt	Player	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	RC	RC/27	LG R/G	RC/27+	Career RC/27	HOF Mon
1	Allen, Dick	1964	22	PHI	NL	162	135	7.91	4.01	197	7.3	Could
2	Mathews, Eddie	1954	22	MLN	NL	138	123	8.98	4.56	197	7.1	Yes
3	Wright, David	2005	22	NYM	NL	160	117	7.38	4.45	166	7.7	Active
4	Lindstrom, Freddie	1928	22	NYG	NL	153	126	7.68	4.70	163	5.9	Yes
5	Hart, Jim Ray	1964	22	SFG	NL	153	95	5.90	4.01	147	5.5	No
6	Rolen, Scott	1997	22	PHI	NL	156	107	6.75	4.60	147	6.8	Active
7	Longoria, Evan	2008	22	TBR	AL	115	80	6.57	4.78	137	6.75	Active
8	Hebner, Richie	1970	22	PIT	NL	120	71	5.97	4.52	132	5.6	No
9	Brett, George	1975	22	KCR	AL	159	102	5.66	4.30	132	6.6	Yes
10	Blalock, Hank	2003	22	TEX	AL	143	99	6.33	4.86	130	5.4	Active

Only Allen, Longo, Hart, and Longo were rookie eligible.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

This is since 1901

by rglass44 on Sep 22, 2008 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

Some pretty good names on that list

Hopefully Evan has a long, HEALTHY, career. Imagine what Bagpipes could have done if his body didn’t break down every year. I remember guys coming inside and hitting him on the wrist a lot. I propose that the next guy that goes after our wrists needs to fight Jeremy Trueblood.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 22, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions

We have 3 of the top 30 rookie 3B of all-time on this team.

by rglass44 on Sep 22, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Is Aki the other one?

by rays1234 on Sep 22, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

If Aki had one of the top 30 3B rookie campaigns of all time

then this system is probably fatally flawed…

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 22, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Aki's season last year was better than you think

by rglass44 on Sep 22, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

nice job

I really enjoyed seeing this statistical breakdown…Good stuff. Longoria is a god in my eyes.

by bleacher10 on Sep 22, 2008 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

Billy is one of my all time favorites

very cool post. thanks.

by K-Rock on Sep 22, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

plus, many of those hitters played less difficult defensive positions

and Longoria’s played a pretty good third base.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 22, 2008 2:20 PM EDT reply actions

Also, doesn't take into account home ball park

Which would also seem to favor him somewhat.

by rglass44 on Sep 22, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

somewhat. id only take stadium into consideration during exceptional circumstances, I.E. playing in colorado, old yankee stadium's right field

by Acadien on Sep 26, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

outfield* rather

by Acadien on Sep 26, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Top 10 seasons by a 22 YO 3B by adjusted RC/27 (min. 50 games played).

Cnt Player Year Age Tm Lg G RC RC/27 LG R/G RC/27+ Career RC/27 HOF Mon
1 Allen, Dick 1964 22 PHI NL 162 135 7.91 4.01 197 7.3 Could
2 Mathews, Eddie 1954 22 MLN NL 138 123 8.98 4.56 197 7.1 Yes
3 Wright, David 2005 22 NYM NL 160 117 7.38 4.45 166 7.7 Active
4 Lindstrom, Freddie 1928 22 NYG NL 153 126 7.68 4.70 163 5.9 Yes
5 Hart, Jim Ray 1964 22 SFG NL 153 95 5.90 4.01 147 5.5 No
6 Rolen, Scott 1997 22 PHI NL 156 107 6.75 4.60 147 6.8 Active
7 Longoria, Evan 2008 22 TBR AL 115 80 6.57 4.78 137 6.75 Active
8 Hebner, Richie 1970 22 PIT NL 120 71 5.97 4.52 132 5.6 No
9 Brett, George 1975 22 KCR AL 159 102 5.66 4.30 132 6.6 Yes
10 Blalock, Hank 2003 22 TEX AL 143 99 6.33 4.86 130 5.4 Active

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

ehhh

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

edited to show this.

At the behest of a fellow baseball fan on the Wake Forest message board.

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting, does Evan have a Rolen-esque career?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Sanse-injury bug, hopefully

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

That would be implied.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I would be extremely pleased with this.

Rolen carried clubs on his back in the field and at the plate, until injuries destroyed him

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 23, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Would you say HOF w/o the injuries?

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

How much do you weigh his defense?

I might run the WARP numbers, since they account for defense, and get back to you.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay, ran them.

Here’s what I got:
Pos/WARP3 (total)/Peak(7 best seasons)/JAWS
AVG HOF 3B/118.3/68.2/93.2
Rolen/97.7/66.6/82.15

Peak is very much HOF caliber, the rest isn’t quite.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Lends some credence to HOFer w/o injuries

Where did you get the data for that?

I’ve been looking all over the place to try to find this stuff.

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

The HOF Warp #s?

I got that from a BP article, but I don’t have the link to that, instead Normandin linked me to it and I just copied/pasted the numbers into an Excel sheet. As for the WARP and such you get that from the BP DT cards, but you have to figure Peak and JAWS on your own (which isn’t hard, obviously.)

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Here's all the HOF WARPs and such:

POS WARP3 Peak JAWS
C 98.9 60.8 79.9
1B 115.1 66.9 91
2B 128.7 74.8 101.7
3B 118.3 68.2 93.2
SS 121.5 71.7 96.6
LF 116.8 65.8 91.3
CF 113.4 66.9 90.1
RF 125 68.7 96.8
CI 116.3 67.4 91.8
MI 124.7 73.1 98.9
IF 121.1 70.6 95.9
OF 119.1 67.3 93.2
Middle 117 69.2 93.1
Corner 119.3 67.4 93.4
Hitters 118.2 68.3 93.2

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Bah.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

It's ok "text to columns" is $$$$$$$$

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Here.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6989

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

ha

same time

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Jaffe owns.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

and I just found that article

by rglass44 on Sep 23, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely

Or at least he would be almost there.

Assume his hitting would have been better in his injury years and that he would have played full seasons, he’d probably have about 2000 hits and 325 home runs through age 33, with the best defense in the game at 3B. Heck, if he can stay mostly healthy for his late career, he could still get in. Basically, he looks like a better version of Paul Molitor so far, and this is about where Molitor converted to being a full-time DH.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 23, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions