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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Oh Dear Heavens

Barty/MVP post, if you don't want to read it then don't.

 

Star-divide

Come on Marc Topkin, you are better than this...

There are "experts" around the baseball world questioning the Tampa Bay BBWAA chapter's election of SS Jason Bartlett as the Rays' MVP. And that shows how little they know.

Quick list of writers who questioned the pick that I saw:  Joe Posnanski, Keith Law, and Joe Sheehan. They know little. Just to review how little:

Posnanski - best sportswriter in the world.

Law - former front office type, one of the most intelligent writers around.

Sheehan - pretty good BP analyst.

They know little. Huh? Well okay, maybe they're missing something, please inform them.

So for every stat about his lack of offense (.268 average, 37 RBIs, .690 OPS) or his number of errors (16, matching the fifth most among major-league shortstops) and low fielding percentage (.970, 16th among regular shortstops), or unimpressive manufactured meters such as range factor (12th best) and zone rating (ninth), consider this pretty good one about his value:

Throw out his batting average, runs batted in, errors, fielding percentage, and even range factor. Either they are flawed or simply don't tell the entire story. Let's do some quick offensive and defensive analysis based on rankings. Offensively we'll use GPA, which should help Bartlett by weighing OBP equal to SLG. Defensively just out of zone plays and range zone rating. 

GPA (at least 300 PAs): Bartlett ranks 19th of 31. Below average.

OOZ (at least 500 innings): Bartlett ranks 9th of 29. Above average.

RZR (at least 500 innings): Bartlett ranks 24th of 29. Below average.

RZR+OOZ/BIZ (at least 500 innings): Bartlett ranks 16th of 29. Below average.

So if Bartlett is around the 19th most valuable offensive shortstop and 16th most valuable defensive shortstop that makes him either an average or slightly above average shortstop. Of course it is possible his knee injury has made his numbers go down a bit, that's a fair point, perhaps Topkin brings that one up?

When Bartlett starts at shortstop, the Rays are 76-46. When he doesn't, they are 20-19.

That makes him pretty valuable.

No. No. No. Why? This is stupid and results based analysis at its finest. Unfortunately Topkin didn't even do that right. Here's a look at the team's winning percentage in games started by players, which, by Topkin's logic, determines the most valuable player on a team:

 

Player W% in GS
Hinske 64
Floyd 64
Navarro 62
Bartlett 62

Yes, defense matters, and that's why, unlike less reasonable people, I would actually dismiss Hinske/Floyd. However Navarro is not only equal in percentage but plays an equally difficult position and one that directly affects the pitchers. Navarro has also been better offensively. Topkin even could've spun this cleverly: it's not the defense that is improve, it's actually Navarro's game-calling skills which have lead to easier-to-field balls in  play. See, see how fun spin is?

In case you were wondering a ton of starters had win percentages around 60, that's the funny  thing about being on a team that wins around 60% of their games. Crazy, I know. Yes, I've wasted too much time on something so stupid, but to dismiss people like Posnanski or Law's opinions as "showing how little they know," and then quoting some meaningless statistic like that is unacceptable. Topkin is one of the best beat writers around, but lord have mercy do not try to be an analyst.

Reference

THT

Comment 21 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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pwned

adj.

To have your hat handed to you by someone

RJ pwned Topkin with his latest blog post

see also: bitchslap, kick to the balls, served

by Jason Collette on Sep 28, 2008 12:07 AM EDT reply actions  

When did Topkin get that chip on his shoulder?

Was it the Bonser/Garza rumor?

I respect him and have defended him as a quality beat writer, but he need to work on his snarkiness or simply avoid it altogether.

by RATW on Sep 28, 2008 12:57 AM EDT reply actions  

It goes beyond that

What it is, I do not know, but there is an arrogance to his presentation. Now that he has “face time”, he feels he is the gospel of the club. I think he shirks his overall responsibility and thinks he parlays himself as the voice of the club. I don’t see Marc Lancaster carry himself or present himself that way.

I know the SPT is the team’s “newspaper”, but this is a gratuitous shot, and meant obviously to dig at people he knows can’t get back at him. I had this conversation with other about the MVP, and I STILL wonder about the Bonser stuff. When the PLAYER HIMSELF says he is the center of trade discussion, regardless of what else is going on, Topkin made himself look like a jackass. Maybe the team’s overall success is getting to the man’s head, or he wants to kiss people’s behinds. Whatever it is, its insulting.

Joe

by joedobr on Sep 28, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

you know..

When JB sees this he will kick you square in the nuts and you’ll cry like Nancy Kerrigan!

by Kenny845 on Sep 28, 2008 4:57 AM EDT reply actions  

You like Bartlett?

Why all the effort to tear him down, AGAIN? I thought this was over last week. Apparently, since your boy didn’t get the MVP nod, your panties are in a bunch.

by rayweaver on Sep 28, 2008 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not tearing him down.

I’m tearing down the dumbass logic behind the pick.

Who exactly is “my boy”? Most would say B.J., did you see Upton’s name mentioned by me? I didn’t even mention Pena or Longoria who are far more worthy.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 29, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

there are a few solid team MVP candidates for the Rays

of anyone else, most are still good, but I (and probably RJ) would rail against them being chosen MVP. that doesn’t mean i don’t like them or think they are good.

Dioner Navarro is good and I like him. He’s the not team MVP.
Gabe Gross is good and I like him. He’s the not team MVP.
Andy Sonnanstine is good and I like him. He’s the not team MVP.
JP Howell is good and I like him. He’s the not team MVP.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 29, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

and yes...

Jason Bartlett is good and I like him. He’s the not team MVP.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 29, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is a great example..

Of “traditional scouting” vs. number crunching come into play. I appreciate that the stats dictate that Bartlett is mediocre at best. That being said, a price cannot be put on a pitcher’s confidence in knowing that all routine plays are going to be made up the middle (also a tribute to Aki.) I really don’t think we would be sniffing the playoffs if Harris were our shortstop this year. I would have given the MVP to Bartlett or Howell….Now please let the “where is your proof” and “observations with no statistical backing are logical” statements rain down.

by PSmith7 on Sep 28, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Again, this is the part I don't get.

It would not be “Either Bartlett or Harris/Zobrist” the Rays most definitely would’ve acquired another shortstop. Whether it would’ve been C. Izturis or Hu or Everett, someone else would’ve been brought in.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Topkin needs an attitude adjustment

This kind of “crap”, like over the past year shows why Marc Topkin needs to check his ego and his constant five o’clock shadow at the door.

Obviously, he would not make this comment if he knew/knows this selection was widely unaccepted. Maybe Marc needs to look in the mirror and prioritize why Jason Bartlett was selected for MVP. Personally, if you look at it as a whole, you got to consider Upton, Pena, Longoria and even stalwarts like Howell and Wheeler above Bartlett, and then there are still others that would merit higher consideration.

Why do I take this kind of jab? Because Marc Topkin feels that he knows more than anyone and would rub it in people’s collective faces, that’s why. You know something Marc, being the BBWAA chapter president is a privilege, not a birth given right. Rubbing it in people’s faces is pathetic and insulting. The fact that you want to make an issue out of it with “experts” shows even more you don’t like being second-guessed!

My commentary has nothing to do against Jason Bartlett. Absolutely not, he is one of the key cogs in the total machine. But overall throughout most of the season, has he ever been “THE” reason why the Rays won over a consistent basis? Not entirely, no. He has chipped in and played solidly. Great baserunner, good “instinctive” player and plays hurt. But with all due respect for him, he hasn’t been the man offensively and defensively, he is as complementary as Aki, Longo and Pena OVERALL.

RATW, I share your feelings completely. I do believe that maybe there should be some disciplinary action into Marc Topkin. Who died and made him Emperor of Tampa Bay Baseball? This is bizarre and peculiar and also unprofessional and perhaps insulting.

Joe

by joedobr on Sep 28, 2008 10:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Topkin is NOT one of the best beat writers around

RJ, I will say it right here. When he tries to qualify comments, KNOWING that there are industry experts that can refute him, is a show of naivete or brazen arrogance. Being one of the best beat writers wouldn’t dare make a comment or provide information that can be as easily refuted as that. He puts his own reputation and the reputation of his employer in peril.

The dispute here is the fact that there is this much dispute. Am I happy for Bartlett, you bet, its minutia, but again, Topkin seems to be mad at the world and comes across as a petulant brat seeming that he had the right answer, almost as if he picked the team MVP himself.

Joe

by joedobr on Sep 28, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

BBWAA

I wonder if the local members will reveal their AL MVP votes. If logic dictates, then Jason Bartlett if MVP of the team, is then one of the six best players in the league? If the team is that good, then he is the reason for it? Why isn’t Bartlett’s name not in league MVP conversation?

I got this warm fuzzy that Carlos Pena is going to harness most of the MVP votes for the Rays. Longo may get a few too, but I would think that Jason Bartlett won’t get any votes. If Topkin is indeed true to himself, he should put Bartlett right there with Pedroia, Sizemore, A-Rod and Youkilis. Let’s see if Marc Topkin the Magnificent is truly logical!

Joe

by joedobr on Sep 28, 2008 7:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Fair point.

If Bartlett really is the MVP of this team, he has to garner some top 10 MVP votes. I guess we’ll see how valuable he really is to the Tampa voters.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

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