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This Isn't an Issue

I had a conversation with a reader last night about Jason Hammel. Essentially he said the Rays needed to upgrade that mop-up role in case of an emergency. He went on to ask who would come in if a starter in the playoffs couldn't get out of the third which lead to an argument on whether that was even a relevant scenario.

Yes, it's possible a pitcher gets bombed in the playoffs but I went through the gamelogs to find the incidents where a Rays pitcher went less than four innings. It's happened six times all season. Here's the thing about Hammel, no he is not good, but currently he is used in situations less tense than every other reliever on the roster except Juan Salas. Hammel pitches once a week and the game is usually out of reach one way or the other. Yes last night was nasty and memorable because he gave up a load of runs but should come as no surprise to people who have paid attention to his non-ERA numbers, after all both his FIP and tRA are over 5.

So our mop-up reliever is the worst pitcher on staff and we're supposed to be upset about this? Yes David Price and almost all of Durham's rotation would be better, but Hammel's role is less than vital on this team and it's likely he won't be on the post-season roster to begin with.

 

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In the playoffs..

you conserve your best arms for starting duty and the toughest moments in the game. If we are getting crushed in the 3rd inning then we should promote a guy from rookie ball if we were allowed.

by matthan on Sep 5, 2008 2:45 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if the team is getting crushed in the third inning (5-0, say), there's a small chacne the team will win anyway.

but, because it’s definitely not worth throwing in the towel, the Rays actually WILL have plenty of options:

Edwin Jackson (or Sonny if they move the wrong guy to the bullpen) — there are only a few guys in the pen who are definitely better pitchers than him and he’ll be more than ready to go five innings. Plus, in a playoff game, you can certainly blow out your pen, pitching Howell, Balfour, Percival, Wheeler, Miller, Jackson/Sonny, Bradford an inning each. Every one of them can pitch an inning two days in a row and most of them can go three in a row. Three in a row is the max in the playoffs.

So, in summary, it doesn’t really matter who pitches in a blowout. Plus, the Rays will have a starter in the bullpen. And finally, even if everyone in the bullpen has to pitch an inning, that’s not a big problem.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 5, 2008 3:14 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What you say may be true

however, why was he’protected’ all year in fear of losing him if he was sent down?

He has NO value to the Rays in the future, and i find it hard to believe that Reyes isn’t a better option

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And an aside to some on here

while i have found many of the “new fangled” stats very telling and useful, it’s still a game of throw the ball, catch the ball, hit the ball

When some here find ONE stat and build a case for or against a player, i feel is a “misuse” of statistics

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 3:57 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Byrd and Hammel

are both RHPs

ENd of comparison

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

His team can still win.

When will you realize that Paul Byrd is only winning because his team is scoring 5+ runs per game?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 5, 2008 4:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What about his first 17 starts with the Indians?

What about his barely over .500 record? What about his four double digit losing seasons in six seasons of 25+ starts?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 5, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In the time frame we're speaking of

Sonny 4-3 4.62 ERA

Jackson 6-3 4.04 ERA

Byrd 7-2 3.65 ERA

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

in fact in that time frame

only Kazmir has a lower ERA than Byrd, and Byrd has more wins than any of them

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why not just admit

Byrd has pitched well in the time frame i’ve examined?

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Would you find something good

if a SP weny 1-9 with a 8.95 ERA?

I’m sure if needed you would find some stat, like K/9 that you’d hloat over and make us all think he’s the next Nolan Ryan

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

K/9 is a pretty basic stat.

I don’t even consider records when talking about pitcher talent. Is that really a hard concept?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 5, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes it is and here's why

every game is different and dictates how you pitch

in close games you pitch more careful, in lopsided ones you let the hitter get himself out

look i agree with stats, but i can’t argue with a pitcher who wins 50-60% of his starts

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly my point of you RJ, you find a stat and then fit it to your liking

when others show you stats that prove you wrong, you demean the stat

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

listen

why not just post Byrd’s K/BB or something else simple and not ERA or W-L over the time frame you’re talking about.

if Byrd actually did pitching better, your point is made. if he was still the same crappy pitcher buy got a bit lucky, then we also learn something. and, either way, five games of good pitching does not a good pitcher make. (same for five games of bad pitching.)

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 5, 2008 5:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What upsets me is Maddon's loyalty to his players ( as bad as it sounds)

While it can be a very comfortable situation as a player, it drives us fans crazy. He held on for way to long before releasing Gary Glover and Al Reyes and is doing the same thing with Jason Hammel. I don’t give a rats ass that Hammel has been with the club all season. IMO, the Rays need to go with the BEST 25 man roster that they can field when we make the playoffs. If he stays with Hammel and keeps him on the 25 man come playoff time, I am gonna be pissed. Mop up duty or every day player aside, Maddon has an obligation to make sure that every player on that roster is the best man for the job.

by Rays Rule on Sep 5, 2008 4:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maddon does not make decisions because he is loyal to his players.

He makes them because he recognizes two things. One that short term failure does not necessarily preclude long term usefullness. And two that there are factors in evaluating players that may not be obvious to every fan. That is, watching them close up with a practiced eye, he may see skills we fail to see.

As R.J. says, he does not make personnel decisions. The issue is whether he misuses Hammel or anyone else on the roster, and anyone would be hard put to demonstrate that he is not using Hammel exactly for the purpose Jason is intended.

Since July 4, Hammel has been in 18 games before last night. Only 4 times was he brought in with less than a 5 run differential. Once it was 4-2 against Cliff Lee and in 3 innings he gave up 1 run which may have made it tougher on the Rays but probably meant nothing. Once he got a hold in a 6-4 win when he went 2/3 inning with 1 BB. And the other two were in extra innings when he got a 3 inning win and a loss. In the other 14 his job was mop-up and he did it just fine, saving the bullpen by finishing the game 11 times. In those 18 appearances, his ERA dropped from 4.88 to 4.12.

Nonetheless, Hammel has not been a good pitcher. His numbers demonstrate that as does observation. He misses his spots too much and walks too many, strikes out too few and is prone to the long ball. He is the 12th pitcher on a 12 man staff doing what most 12th men do. I am not so sure that someone else is an upgrade, because you do not want Price or Talbot or anyone else rotting in the bullpen. You want them to get regular work, and whoever replaces Hammel would not.

It is not always a good idea to have the “better” player replace someone else, not if the role does not suit that player. Sometimes the best man for the job is not necessarily the best player.

One more thing; on this and other sites fans have demanded, ardently demanded, that the Rays jettison each of the following players: Floyd, Aybar, Gross. I don’t mean demanded as they have about Upton or in a trade as has been suggested in the case of Hinske or with some mild irritation as with Riggans. I mean with absolute certainty that each is a waste of space or that someone else in the system (Dan Johnson, Ruggiano, F. Perez) is clearly better. Over the past few years we have seem the same demands regarding Camp, Stokes, Waechter et al, each of whom has now tasted occasional success elsewhere. Maddon was not being loyal to them; he was trying to make use of the talent they had as best he could. It was correct to move them, but while here it was also correct to find some role for them and to focus on nurturing their talent, not obsessing over their weaknesses.

by bobr on Sep 5, 2008 5:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Rec'd

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 5, 2008 5:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm guessing he's off the 25-man roster anyway

If they do the David Price switcheroo, someone’s going to need to be left off. Miller’s actually been pitching well lately, so I doubt it’s him. Hammel’s the only legitimate alternative.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 5, 2008 5:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Playoff roster I mean

Not 25-man roster

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 5, 2008 5:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The mop-up reliever role is not a necessary one on a baseball team.

The Rays have enough quality pitchers between their staff and AAA that this really shouldn’t be questioned. He’s the worst pitcher on the staff and the guy who pitches only during garbage time. I’d rather not have a garbage time pitcher at all and have one more ‘useful’ reliever.

And I’ve hated Hammel pretty much since he got scared that he was going to lose his spot in the rotation when Kaz got off the DL and he went and took a dump on the mound against the Yankees.

by kericr on Sep 5, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BREAKING NEWS 2013

Greg Maddux rejected by HOF voters

when asked why all voters pointed to was his FIP and tRA were not what they were looking for

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 5:02 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes but not as good as the forgettable

Gustav Leibowitz who toiled in relative obscurity for 8 teams in 10 yerars

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2008 5:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this is one of the most hilarious arguments use by people who dislike advanced stats

you actually see it quite a lot. and nine times out of ten, the players they choose are actually really really good in the stats they choose.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 5, 2008 5:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not replying to anything though.

Just lauging at the quick and mass censorship that just happened.

The real loss is that my quip about Pearl Harbor resentment is lost for the ages

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 5, 2008 5:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's going on with Morlan?

Haven’t heard much about him lately

by mittens on Sep 5, 2008 5:27 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Montgomery's season ended

And he’s lost some of his luster. Injured much of the year, still hasn’t developed much of a second pitch, fastball sits closer to 90 than 95 these days. In other words, the same pitcher we traded for.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 5, 2008 5:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

*not

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 5, 2008 5:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PLAYOFFS = 4 STARTERS

OK. Hate to break up the hate-fest…

but in the playoffs a team only uses 4 starters. if somebody gets knocked out of a game in the 3rd or 4th inning, the teams 5th starter will come in. the 5th starter takes on the role of emergency long-dude. In this case, that is probably Sonnanstine. Hammel is an afterthought. He only comes in if the game is 12-1 in the 9th inning.

That is why we call him “THE GRIM REAPER”…He should only come in if death is imminent.

by The Professor on Sep 6, 2008 12:31 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thank you for stating the obvious.

I would have no idea how playoff rotations worked otherwise.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2008 12:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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