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The Calling of Balls and Strikes Should No Longer Be Done by Humans

It's starting to get embarrassing:



We all know this isn't the first time poor umpiring has decided a game. Pitch F/X has a margin of error of 2.2 inches. 2.2 inches!! This umpire, apparently, has a margin of error of the strike zone. Obviously Pitch F/X won't be perfect, but you want to know something that is less perfect? Human umpiring. I can't wait till all the old traditionalist fucks in baseball die and things like Pitch F/X called balls and strikes could happen. It is clear that after Percival threw his last pitch to Rolen today, the count should've been 1-3.

Fuck you Umpiring, and fuck you MLB.

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Just another wonderful side benefit of technology.

Seriously, if you can fully eliminate the controversey of ball and strike calls, why would you not do it to say that human error—mistakes that the players themselves don’t make that will decide the game— is a good thing.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Sep 6, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You don't even have to get rid of the home plate umpire.

He can still make safe/out calls and handle the lineup cards, just give something that makes the calls for him.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The umpires would never go for that.

To which I say fuck it, fire them. It’s not hard to get a bunch of minor/indie league umpires who wouldn’t complain that could make safe/out calls and handle the lineups without complaining about their undeserved authority being taken away from them. I will be so happy when all the old fucks in the game today die and stuff like this can start seriously being considered.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Sep 6, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody wants to see the talent actually decide games.

The problem with instant replay is that the home plate umpire gets final call, not only on the play in the field, but also whether to go to replay. How often is he going to go to replay and risk alienating a comrade?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the umpire would still make the vocal ball/strike call, too

he’d hold whatever device relayed the call from PITCHf/x. you wouldn’t really see the computer involvement

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying I disagree,

but if we relied on questek to call balls and strikes, offense as a whole would rise exponentially.

Something would have to be done to even the score. Maybe raise the mound a little more or increase the size of the plate and strikezone a little, I dunno. But eliminating called strikes out of the zone would be disastrous to every pitcher in the league.

by Vin on Sep 6, 2008 8:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't the amount of non-strike calls also rise, basically making it a wash?

Ball and strike calls are missed probably an equal amount of the time. Although I don’t have proof, I’m just assuming it’s not 80/20 and more like 50/50 to 60/40. In fact I think it could lead to an offense repression.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Random pitchers: Grant Balfour, JP Howell

Using Kalk’s pitch f/x tool, I count ~27 strikes that were called balls out of 205 total balls. So 13% of his pitches that resulted in a ball were actually a strike.

~21 of 90 called (looking) strikes were out of the zone. That’s 23%.
And we’re talking about a guy who relies on a fairly straight fastball.

JP Howell, for instance, has thrown 623 balls and of those ~40 were in the strike zone (6). He’s thrown 334 called strikes with ~65 of those being out of the zone (19)

Obviously it would hurt guys who throw breaking stuff more than it would hurt flamethrowers, but it would still definitely hurt them. Add the fact that hitters would never have to worry about expanding their zone or making adjustments and you have one hell of a recipe for an offensive explosion.

by Vin on Sep 6, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd for doing research

If that holds up over most of the sample size then you definitely have a valid point.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I might try to expand on it when I get some time. Its a lot of counting.

Duchscherer: ~15% cKOZ ; ~4% cBIZ
Sonnanstine: ~10cKOZ ; ~6 cBIZ
Bonser: ~11% cKOZ ; ~4% cBIZ

cKOZ = Called Strikes out of the Strike Zone
cBIZ – Called Balls in the Strike Zone

So far everything points to pitchers benefiting from an umpire governed strike zone. There may even be a correlation between guys getting rocked and the cKOZ rate. Of course Sonny has that high SLGA and Bonser is among the worst in the league in ERA. Brian Burres has ~7% cKOZ. Cliff Lee has ~13%.

Its pretty interesting.

by Vin on Sep 6, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh, I would not have assumed this at all.

Thanks for doing the footwork on this. I’m thinking about emailing Turkenkopf to see if there’s a way he could pull pitch data on borderline calls that are called strikes/not strikes.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No problem.

I’d be very interested to see what kind of conclusions/assumptions can be based off of this.

by Vin on Sep 6, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But this is based off the strikezone that goes to the belt,

which is not the rulebook zone (to the letters). If you actually enforced the rules I’d expect to see offense drop.

by Matthew on Sep 13, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's interesting.

But most of the called strikes I’ve counted were on either side of the plate. For example, only 5 of James Shields’ called strikes out of the zone were above the box, 5 were below the box, and ~70 were either to the left or right of the box.

If you extended the strike zone 5 inches higher, that would add another ~30 called strikes. So he’d still lose more than twice the amount of called strikes that he would gain if the rulebook zone was strictly enforced. (I realize it’s only one pitcher, but the concept seems to be fairly universal. I recommend playing with the pitchF/X tool if you want a bigger sample size).

Also, I would think that a pitch at the letters would be easier to hit than a pitch 5 inches off the plate. Any way you slice it, a strict enforcing of the rulebook strike zone would benefit hitters.

by Vin on Sep 14, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am one of the "old fucks"

although I don’t consider myself a “traditional” old fuck. Should mlb decide to institute more technology for making calls, I would not abandon the game or even get overly upset. But I am not in favor of it, and my reason may be flimsy, but still important to me.

Baseball is a game, and I like that. I revel in baseball because ultimately it is not really important. It is playing and fun, and nothing really hangs on the results. Sometimes real life overwhelms me and baseball is a haven and solace where I can be terribly right or wrong and it doesn’t really matter.

Now I know that is not literally true, certainly for the players or owners or the many whose livelihood depends on wins and losses and on the statistics they post. But in the sense that wrong decisions, the wrong team winning and so on may occur, it really does not matter in any truly important way.

Now if you knew me, you would know how much that contradicts my actual approach to the game. I get terrible butterflies-more like wasps-when watching my team. I live and die by the daily scores and standings and can be impossible to my family when things do not go my way. It is purely emotional, and the only saving grace is that I know that and quickly force myself to snap out of it, at least on the surface. I know it is not tragedy, just disappointment, even if my emotional state seems mournful or grief-stricken.

So when I say it doesn’t matter, I am not so sure I live it that way. But what I do not like is treating it as if it is so important that we need technology to intervene. That is football with its intoned pronouncements about character and commitment, an attitude I find repugnant and full of bloated self-importance.

Somehow it seems to me that being so intent on getting it right elevates the game to something more that it should be. It is the thin wedge of making baseball a matter of real importance rather than a game that men play to amuse, divert and excite.

Denkinger got it maddeningly wrong. Cardinal fans will never forgive him. So what?!

by bobr on Sep 6, 2008 9:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

tennis has a good replay system that's similar to PITCH/fx

and it’s eliminated ALL controversy on line calls. players love it, since they never walk off the court feeling like they got screwed on a call. if the computer could make calls fast enough, i would guess they’d eliminate line judges.

they also don’t use the system on all courts — just stadium courts for big matches.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

how does PITCHf/x know the height of a strike zone?

i don’t understand how they adjust it for each hitter. anyone know?

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

would have to measure each player in thier batting stance to get a apporoximate

height that could be used throughout the season.

Doable, but a lot of moving parts.

by laxtonto on Sep 7, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No way.

If we have technology that can scan your face (in real time, as you’re moving) and match it to a database, then I’m sure we can come up with some kind of technology that can make a box that goes from your knees to your armpits.

by Vin on Sep 8, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

The pitch f/x operator (a person) sets the top of the strikezone before each pitch by marking where the hitter’s belt is at.

by Matthew on Sep 13, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They could always increase the width of the plate and low the height of the strike zone

That is essentially the umpires strike zone today, so make the changes and then use pitch f/x

by matthan on Sep 7, 2008 6:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You guys play video games too much.

Every team’s gfans think they get screwed by the umps – Yanks fans are crowing about how they love us. This is all a perception difference.

Dp umps mess up. Yes. Are there bad umps. yes. But by and large – with notable exceptions – they’re okay / consistent. We’ll always remember when we get hurt, so they’ll always seem bad. Isn’t the point of Questec to monitior and jusdge ump performance? MLB then needs to monitiopr and judge.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 7, 2008 8:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Without Umps

People could only bitch about BJ.

by floridaroar on Sep 7, 2008 8:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

To have anyone or anything else determine balls and strikes would be unbaseball like....

Baseball is a game where most decisions are based on judgement from umpires. The only time they suck is when an incident occurs to the team you are rooting for. I love the idea of Pitch F/X, but it would NEVER happen….even if some of us want it too.

by Rays Rule on Sep 8, 2008 8:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the main thing that pisses me off is that there is no resposibility for screw ups and if there is, we don't here about it....

Umpires should be by and large hired/fired and fined if they screw up. A system should be in place for the Doug Eddings of the world so in the least there pocket book hurts if not there pride. MLB needs to have some type of system where depending on how many infractions they have determines the amount of the fine or eventually the firing of umpires that screw up. (I am directing this more towards ups in the field and not behind the plate).

by Rays Rule on Sep 8, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No pocket book

Eddings carries a purse.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 9, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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