A Point In Edwin's Favor

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 9, 2008 11:57 PM EDT Comment 33 comments

According to Baseball Prospectus' stat report on the quality of batters faced by pitchers, Edwin Jackson has faced the toughest hitters of any starter with at least 150 innings. His opposing hitters have a .760 OPS, while the AL average is .756 and the MLB average is .749. How much does that small bit matter? Between 1 to 2 runs.

On the low end in the AL, Kenny Rogers' opponents have a .722 OPS and Cliff Lee has had the second-easiest time at .726.

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i have been happy with edwin this year and didnt realize that he has faced the best hitters in the league doing it

good job pointing that out sky kalkman, i still hope some team takes the bait ,if the rays decide to put him out there for trade

Evan Longoria=ROY. Andrew Friedman=Executive of the year. Joe Maddon=Manager of the year. David Price= the next best pitcher TB Rays fan 2002-the day i die!

by RaysOfHope on Sep 10, 2008 12:24 AM EDT reply actions

E-Jax

has done his job this season for the most part. I say keep him if he can continue to do so for the post season run.

by Underdogs on Sep 10, 2008 7:41 AM EDT reply actions

For the most part? Were you looking for your fourth starter to contend for the Cy Young? He’s absolutely done his job this year.

by PSmith7 on Sep 10, 2008 7:51 AM EDT reply actions

He has pitched pretty damn well

And his role was simple “keep this spot warm for one of our prospects”

I also love how he is so good at working out of trouble, usually.

by joeybw on Sep 10, 2008 9:33 AM EDT reply actions

I just wish the trouble he works out of was a little less his own doing.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

Don’t completely hold too much faith in the analysis from the angle of the main post; as of now BTW, Seattle’s King Felix is now 1st. But Garza’s 3rd and has done the job much better, and our entire rotation is in the top 30 anyway save Kaz, who hasn’t reached 150 innings yet. Really for Edwin’s stuff, he should be striking more batters out, or walking fewer. I’m really looking forward to seeing him traded in the offseason.

by kericr on Sep 10, 2008 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed...

I too am looking forward to trading a pitcher who turned 25 years old yesterday, that his improved in nearly every major statistical category this year merely for the sake of trading him.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Sep 10, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I don't think it is merely for the sake of trading him.

He is a league ready pitcher that could step in as a 3 today in the NL and could become a 2 someday in either league. Those don’t grow on trees. You trade from a strength to improve a weakness and Davis and/or Price could step in tomorrow to replace him. Teams are salivating at the chance to get Edwin who as you mentioned is young, improving, and still cheap. This could prove to be a real coup if we can use teams as leverage against each other much like we were used in the Bay heist of ’08.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Bay Heist '08...

I like that. It seems that many people want to just “get rid” of Edwin for the sake of it. I haven’t read many thoughts on what we could possibly get for him, just a lot of “I can’t wait to see him on another team next year”.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Sep 10, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

As long as he continues to increase his attractivness on the trade market I like him here

2-fold help us now, help us later

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

just speaking for me here....

but any time I propose trading Edwin and don’t state a trade target, it doesn’t mean I just wan to give him away. he’d definitely return something helpful, it’s just that there are so many possibilities I don’t bother to brainstorm every time.

he’s merely ok, overrated, and expendable — the perfect combination for a trade. some ideas:

a stud no-name reliever like Scott Downs but not Scott Downs because Ricciardi knows what he has there.
hitting prospects — middle infield especially
an underrated corner outfielder with a decent bat and good fielding skills, in the Randy Winn mold

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, that's not what I meant.

Sandy nailed it on the head.

by kericr on Sep 10, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

except that he hasn't improved in any MEANINGFUL statistical category

and the meaningful categories are more important than the major ones

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I totally agree, Sky.

In regards to the idea that Edwin has “improved in nearly every major statistical category this year”:

2007 K/9: 7.16
2008 K/9: 5.30

2007 BB/9: 4.92
2008 BB/9: 3.90

2007 HR/9: 1.06
2008 HR/9: 1.08

So where exactly has Edwin improved? He has improved in the facets that he has little/no control over:

2007 BABIP: .341
2008 BABIP: .291

2007 LOB: 65.7
2008 LOB: 78

In fact, his FIP was almost exactly the same last year (4.98) as this year (4.89). His xFIP was actually BETTER last year (5.02) than this year (5.17).

The Rays should trade Jackson because they have a surplus of pitchers, yes, but also because he’s simply NOT VERY GOOD.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 10, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

So trimming a full walk off, albeit with a similar drop in k-rate isn't improvement?

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Correct, in this case.

Because the strikeout rate A) dropped even more than the walk rate, and B) is scary-low now.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 10, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Makes sense

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

are you BB/9 numbers right?

if so, that’s some moderate improvement. but nothing great and the K/9 and GB rates are disturbing

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

The BB/9 numbers are correct.

And you’re correct in pointing out that Edwin has actually allowed FEWER grounders this year than he did last year.

It’s not that this guy is raw/inconsistent. It’s that he’s performing way over his head.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 10, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

good point on all the Rays' pitchers

all the AL East teams have faced extremely difficult schedules, making their run differentials that much more impressive. lost in all the shuffle, i think, is how good of a job JP Ricciardi has done, putting together a very good, albeit underrated team.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

let's put it this way. if the Jays were this good last year (when the Rays sucked), they'd probably be the wild card team

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

If they could have gotten Lind and Snyder up earlier who knows what could have happened. It looks like they got their bats sorted out a little to late, but the pitching has been solid even dealing with injuries along the way.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I thought thry had Lind up earlier...

but he didn’t hit. May have been just filling in for an injured player though.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Sep 10, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

A really under-rated guy I like is Joe Inglett.

Right now it seems like 2B might be the deepest position in the AL. Polanco, Roberts, Jose Lopez, Cano, Pedroia, Alexi Ramirez, Ian Kinsler, Howie Kendrick, Aki, Alexi Casilla, Mark Ellis, Inglett all these guys either bring a plus glove or a plus bat and sometimes both. It just doesn’t seem to be a hole in many lineups.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

People forget how raw Edwin is

Once he gets his control down he will be a very good MLB pitcher. He’ll be doing it for someone else though.

by matthan on Sep 10, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

Seriously though

How often do pitchers ‘get their control down’? It really doesn’t happen that often. When it comes to control and command, usually, what you see is what you get.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Sep 10, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Randy…Johnson.

by PSmith7 on Sep 10, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

Use reply....and subject line

by kericr on Sep 10, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I was going to dress up as Randy Johnson for Halloween one year

but I was afraid of literally scaring the piss out of people

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

ok, calculating the mean OPS gives .750

that still seems pretty close to Edwin still, but it’s better. Cliff Lee has the lowest OPS against of all AL starters with at least 100 IP at .732 — not quite symmetric, but that’s the range.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions