Rough Rays WAR

Any suggestions for upgrade. Offensive #s were based on CHONE/Marcels combo.

As of right now:
Wins %
115 2.017
110 5.717
105 18.87
100 33.56
95 60.11
90 76.00
85 91.59
80 96.59
75 99.36
70 99.83
65 99.98
60 99.99

5 months ago R.J. Anderson Comment 49 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Why Kazmir at a FIP of 4?

He’s projected better by CHONE, Marcels, and BJ. Other than the 4.37 last year he hasn’t been over 3.8 since his first year in the league.

by rglass44 on Jan 10, 2009 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Switched to 3.8.

Do you think I was too optimistic with Niemann/Price starting?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Price at 4.5.

I wonder about Niemann at 4.5 as a starter. I would assume those are both fine.

One other question:

Why have “rest” below replacement? Doesn’t that seem odd?

by rglass44 on Jan 10, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really.

I ran out of relief spots, but it assumes worst case for guys like Salas, Day, and Childers.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I bumped Niemann down to 4.6, same with Price.

I’d rather be too pessimistic than optimistic for this.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Defs

No reason to get to ahead of ourselves. It is January and a 55 WAR projection makes me want it to be March so much worse.

by rglass44 on Jan 10, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You gotta know I'm not gonna let Kaz at 4 slide.

I’m waaayyyy too big a Kaz fanboy.

by rglass44 on Jan 10, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not bad considering the conservative nature of Marcel.

CHONE seems to be about halfway between Marcel and BJ.

by twenty5psi on Jan 10, 2009 1:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I always thought BJ was a bit optmistic and Marcels was a bit pessimistic. I combo of those two would be better IMO.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For example

Navarro had a .330 wOBA last year and Bill James projects a .338 wOBA, which might be too optimistic. Marcels and Chone both have him around .319. I think thats too low.

btw, how did you get .318 wOBA for Navarro? Marcels had him at .321 and Chone .319. Manipulating the numbers?

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, just a typo.

I told RGlass, in cases where there’s less than 0.005 points between them, I usually leaned to Chone, due to minor league numbers being incorporated.

Fixing Navarro. Let me know if you see anything else.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope its not a mistake

but Crawford at .360? Niether his marcels nor chone projections are that high.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, that's the other note I wanted to make

FG’s wOBA takes SB into account. Both of their projections had Carl lower than expected (as you’ve noticed recently) so I took some liberties in steals expectations.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus, Chone does have him at .357, Marcels seemingly regressed TOO much in this case, which does happen.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Expect a post about CC last year everyone.

by rglass44 on Jan 10, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Any time people (or projection systems) expect a player who just had their best season of their career to improve the following year, I want to run them through the shredder.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 10, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In the same sense

of lot of projections assume someone who had a breakout year is not able to repeat or come close to the same numbers. Like the whole season was a fluke and should be thrown out.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would say those projection systems are likely reacting appropriately to past data.

Age is a big issue, of course. Here’s an example I made up. Player entering his age 30 season, with equal playing time of, say, 600 PAs all three seasons:

2006: .335 wOBA
2007: .325 wOBA
2008: .355 wOBA

A simple average yields .338. A 5/4/3 weighted average yields .341. Throwing out 2008 yields a .330 simple average.

Most intelligent projection systems will put 2009 around .341. Most non-saber fans would put 2009 at, say, .350-.360 (not to put words in anyone’s mouth). But I don’t think there are any projection systems that actually ignore 2008 and project .330.

What do people here think is the proper projection for 2009, without any other information (which is likely misleading, but that’s a different discussion) and all else being equal?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 11, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ehh it depends

on why they broke out. But I guess that all comes down to a subjective analysis. Were they coming back from injury, how old are they, gain a mph on the fastball, improved crontrol, new pitch, etc. I guess its easier for someone to read into their improvment than expect data projections to appropriately take everything into consideration. However, all that aside, if it was a young player with untapped potential, I would venture to project similar numbers or better. If it was a veteran player with a break out year, I would be cautious and project something in between their career norm and that break out year. Just like with Pena, I was in complete agreement that it was unlikely he could repeat. But I def though he could come close.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 12, 2009 4:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This chart is confusing to me...

"Don't test the cannon"! screamed Matt Garza after b.J. Upton throws another failed attempt of scoring by a tag-up!

by raysbball on Jan 10, 2009 1:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It means...

We have a 98% chance of winning at least 75 games. We have a 93% chance of winning at least 80. etc.

*i think

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Jan 10, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All in all, I really like the looks of that.

Pretty conservative projections all around. It’s nuts to look at that rotation. We could realistically see FIPs of 3.5, 3.75, 3.8, 3.9, and 4. That’s nuts. That isn’t even with Kaz returning to 2007 form. I love our pitching staff.

by rglass44 on Jan 10, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

WAR added aren't linear

by lailaihei on Jan 10, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How would this compare to the rest of our division?

B Rad the Ray Fan

by B Ray on Jan 10, 2009 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Orioles are ~75.

For the Yankees I would say ~95 as well, and I’m working with someone on a Red Sox version. Jays version should be done at some point as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How in the world are the Orioles going to win 75 games next year

They won 68 games last year and that includes playing way over their head in the first half. While guys like Markakis, Jones and Wieters will add positive contributions, you have to assume Mora and Huff will degress. Even their closer Sherrill over performed in the first half and was his hard in the second half. Their defense is slightly improved with Izturiz up the middle, but still not that great. So far the only additions they have made to their pitching staff is Uehara and Hendrickson. Uehara might be able to manage a league average FIP, good for a number 4 starter, but he will be the number 2 starter! Im just saying I really cant imagine the Orioles any better next year unless 3-4 of their young arms all take a step forward at the same time. They have some really good arms in the minors, but are still 1-2 years away from making an impact. Might just have to wait it out until then.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

* regress

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't gotten a chance to comb over, but here's the spreadsheet.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO3dbhlV3dGR7GlCfzmbaYQ&hl=en

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Note: that's not my work either, so if something is wrong I'm not the one at fault.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, remember, we're not so much saying "Well this team will win 95 games."

We’re saying: “Well, it looks like this team is going to win around 95 games at this point.”

So for the Orioles, if their benchmark is 75, then you’re thinking more on the side to 70 or 80. Since they play in a tough division you learn towards 70, which is basically what they won last season.

I definitely see your point about the rotation, but you have to remember, they had Daniel Cabrera and Brian Bass making starts last year. Uehara and Hendrickson could post 4.5 FIPs and you’re looking at vast improvements.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, Wieters

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Jan 10, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well I looked closely over the sheet

And I have to say there really arent any “fixed” numbers in there. Everything is pretty close to the projections, but I still have yet to undertstand how he got is numbers. Whether it is the mean of all three, of chone and marcels, or what. Some of his numbers are close to BJ, some seem like an average, and some seem to be on the lower end of the spectrum. Ehh to each their own, but I dont have any gripes with his projections, only the projects he based them on (Hendrickson with a 4.90 ERA? HA).

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hendrickson has a career 4.5 FIP.

Which is what I used. I’ll go back through later/tomorrow and fix anything that seems out of whack.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Err, I used FIP, not career numbers. Obviously.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

really?

he has a projected 4.5 FIP next year? After a 4.68 FIP in a NL pitchers park? His lowest FIP in the AL is 4.48 and that was 04. Ehh I still have a hard time imagining him going to the toughest division in baseball and putting up career numbers.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, no.

I meant his career FIP is 4.5.

His projected is 4.97 by CHONE and 4.5 by Marcels.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So arguably

his projected FIP should be around 4.75? I thought you using the mean of Marcels and CHONE.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was.

Then I realized CHONE seems more realistic in most cases.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Updated the odds.

And copied/pasted the Orioles WAR sheet.

Congratulations everyone, we’re guaranteed at least fourth place.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How do these odds compare to the rest of the AL East?

by kericr on Jan 10, 2009 7:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Right now, I have the O's and Jays added.

The Yanks/Sox will be coming soon, then you can expect more analysis on it.

From my rougher calculations two weeks ago, expect the big three to be extremely close.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Updated with all ALE teams.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pAPYgBwn4o__4aHzBa42feA

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 9:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ugh not what I wanted to see

So Im assuming this doesnt take into consideration defense, depth, speed (for the most part), and durability. The Rays obviously have the best defense and most speed. Age and injury risk into consideration, probably the most durable and least-likely to be injured as well. Does anyone actually expect the Yankees to stay healthy all year. You have to think at least 2-3 of their regulars will be out for most of the year. They are a train-reck waiting to happen. So do you think the intagibles put the Rays over the top or are they still a step behind the Sox and Yanks?

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 10, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It does take defense and depth into account.

Speed to a lesser degree (since SB aren’t the only “speed” effects).

Depth is basically trying to allocate PAs (a complete guessing game) and that’s where most of the individual defense ratings come into play.

I agree on the injury risks, and while we can project that to a degree, I’d rather be conservative than say “Saito’s arm blows in the first week.”

All things considered, 4 projected wins away is pretty damn good. We knew before this that everyone would be within 5 games of each other, this is simply something to give us a guideline on talent.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be too concerned; if these were always dead-on then the Rays would not have won the division last year. We certainly projected worse then 97 wins last year.

by kericr on Jan 11, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, projections are just that, projections.

To paraphrase Andrew Friedman “We are a better team now then the team that won the American League.”

by twenty5psi on Jan 11, 2009 12:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2-3 starters out for most of the year? That seems extreme. And age should be accounted for in projected playing time.

The Yanks also have immense depth. Well, except for 2B/SS/3B. 1B/OF/DH has an extra player who could be 2-3 WAR in full playing time. And the rotation of CC/Burnett/Wang/Joba/Hughes has Aceves/Kennedy/others in waiting.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 11, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What happened to them last year was "extreme"

Losing Arod, Damon, Matsui, Posada, Wang, and Joba for large portions is extreme. Wang, Posada, Matsui (3 players) were all lost for the majority of the year. Everyone is a year older and throw in Sabathia, whose arm was completely abused last year) and Burnett, whose has pitched more than 25 starts twice in the past six season, into the mix. Sure they have Tex and Swisher replacing Giambi and Abreu, but those two guys were healthy all year. Also take into consideration one of Nady or Swisher is likely to be traded so one of Cabrera or Gardner will be playing center most days. Further take into consideration all the games Posada will DH, which will limit at bats for Matsui and Damon, and give more at bats to light hitting Molina. Right now their rotation has 2 injury risks (CC and Burnett) and 2 unproven starters (Hughes and Joba). I really dont buy into their depth at all. Their bench is not great at all, their young bullpen is likely to regress, Kennedy and co. have had no major league success, and one of Nady or Swisher will be traded. Sooo many question marks.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 12, 2009 5:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs