A Few Early Projections Are Out

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 11, 2009 11:29 AM EST

Replacement Level has a pair out (using the Diamond Mind simulator) based on THT's projections along with Marcels. Obviously these are extremely preliminary, and SG explains more of his theory here (using CHONE, and this was prior to the Red Sox signing a few) the win totals are:

Yanks 99

Sox 97

Rays 93

Jays 80

O's 76

If you note, those numbers are remarkably similar to our ALE WAR sheet. SG takes things a step further and creates an AL East penalty -- basically a strength of schedule modifier -- which bumps each team down a few in the wins column.

Marcels link.

THT link.

Don't fret too much about the win numbers right now. The one thing we should take from this is pretty obvious: we're playing in an extremely tough division, and we have a legitimate chance of winning it again.

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do you have a link for the entire AL?

by Raymondo on Jan 11, 2009 11:53 AM EST reply actions

nevermind ~ duh

by Raymondo on Jan 11, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

I figured you meant a spreadsheet.

This isn’t my work, but it has the ALC.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO3dbhlV3dGR7GlCfzmbaYQ&hl=en

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 11, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

You always know what team i'm looking for

hey RJ?

I don’t see how THT picks them to win ALC, with that rotation

by Raymondo on Jan 11, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions

Rest of the division is weak.

Plus, the Indians were better than they showed this year.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 11, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

Didnt they lead baseball in runs scored after the allstar break?

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 12, 2009 4:05 AM EST up reply actions

Not sure.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

I wonder when all the Yankees inuries happen

how much these numbers will change

I mean, its when, not if, AJ, Posada, Joba get hurt. Matsui, Wang are 2 others with a big chance of an injury.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 11, 2009 3:32 PM EST reply actions

I'll take the under on the Yankees and the Orioles...

Oddly enough, I’m seen as the baseball expert at my job (which shows you how little they know) and someone asked today what I thought the Rays would do, and my prediction was 93 wins.

When asked why, I told them I thought there would be some regression to the mean because of their meteoric rise last season. I also pointed out that I believe the most volatile area of a team is the bullpen, and it’s rare for teams to be very good one year and maintain that high standard (as a squad) the next. Bullpens are usually built from spare parts which were available because they weren’t necessarily good anywhere else.

My number would have beem closer to the high 80’s, but the Rays are very young and likely to improve, better at DH than last year, and probably won’t have all the injuries from last season.

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Jan 11, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions

Can't disagree with any of this.

I’d also take the under based on the division’s level of talent. I guess you could argue the lack of talent in the rest of the AL (not “lack”, but a lesser degree) evens things out.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 11, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

While I agree the bullpen is probably due for some regression.

Hopefully that will partly be offset by Joe Nelson. As well as an offense that should be better this year, the offense last year seemed somewhat poor/unlucky with RISP. That, combined with the additions of Burrell and Joyce, with most likely better production from Crawford, BJ, and Longoria.

I’m going to say the positive and negative regressions balance out and we win ~97 games again +/- 2 games.