A Few Early Projections Are Out

Replacement Level has a pair out (using the Diamond Mind simulator) based on THT's projections along with Marcels. Obviously these are extremely preliminary, and SG explains more of his theory here (using CHONE, and this was prior to the Red Sox signing a few) the win totals are:

Yanks 99

Sox 97

Rays 93

Jays 80

O's 76

If you note, those numbers are remarkably similar to our ALE WAR sheet. SG takes things a step further and creates an AL East penalty -- basically a strength of schedule modifier -- which bumps each team down a few in the wins column.

Marcels link.

THT link.

Don't fret too much about the win numbers right now. The one thing we should take from this is pretty obvious: we're playing in an extremely tough division, and we have a legitimate chance of winning it again.

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