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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

That Eric Hinske?

Take a look at this list of Rays in order of UZR/150(min. 250 innings at one position). Now, see if a name appears that you wouldn't expect. If that name appears twice and ahead of B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett and Aki Iwamura, then you're thinking along with me.

Name Pos G GS UZR/150
Crawford LF 108 103 28.6
Longoria 3B 119 118 17.7
Gross RF 120 75 15.4
Aybar 3B 41 40 13
Hinske RF 49 47 11.6
Hinske LF 40 37 9.9
Upton CF 143 141 5
Pena 1B 132 131 4.5
Bartlett SS 125 122 2
Iwamura 2B 152 151 0.6
Zobrist SS 35 33 -15

According to UZR/150, Eric Hinske wasn't a bad fielder at all and not nearly as bad as we all made him out to be. Of course he only had 600 innings in the outfield this season, but in those 600 innings he was better than Denard Span, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Jay Bruce. How? I do not know.

Hinske hasn't attracted much interest on the open market, except for a possible interest by a Japanese team, but for a team looking for a platoon outfielder or a power bat off the bench, they could do a lot worse that Hinske(I'm looking at you Dayton Moore). If he doesn't end up with a Major League deal or something overseas, I wouldn't mind bringing him back and stashing him away in Durham on a split contract.  

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I don't buy his rating.

It’s based on the balls in zone data, Justin uses the same, and while he’s not as bad as you expect, he’s still closer to -5 than 0. This is the only player I’ve seen split like this, so either he’s an outlier or there’s something wrong with the input data.

Can anyone with BJO sub post his +/- numbers?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 11:28 AM EST reply actions  

PMR also says he was negative.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/13/660346/2008-rf-defense-by-pmr

Usually PMR/UZR/+/-, ect. agree, so I’m thinking there’s something wrong with the data.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I just realized I wasn't looking at UZR/150.

Hinske’s plain ol’ UZR in the OF is 5. That doesn’t fit in with the rest of his career. Either he had a flukishly decent defensive season, or the input data was wrong.

I can see the former, I don’t really think MGL or Appelman would make a mistake on the latter.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

This is why we say three years of defensive data = one year of offensive data.

It’s also why there’s no golden reference for defensive stats.

Use UZR, PMR, and +/- together to get an answer. Generally they tend to agree, this case, not so much.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I think

HE IS WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS

/Denny Green

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 12, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe not.

I just don’t understand why everything but UZR says otherwise. Odd.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Doubt it.

Upton would’ve taken balls from right-center, but that would’ve hurt Hinske I believe (noting it as a play Hinske didn’t make within his zone). I’d have to email MGL to verify though.

I wish we knew the hangtime on an average flyout for Hinske versus average.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Hinske as a good outfielder gives me California Dreams

http://www.lacoctelera.com/myfiles/quefuede/California%20Dreams02.jpg

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 12, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

dammit

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 12, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Either he had a flukishly decent defensive season, or the input data was wrong.

I think its rather obvious to everyone who watched him last year that he was a bad defensive player with some of the worst OF range Ive ever seen. Why do you rely so heavily on these numbers, rather then what you saw out of him last year yourself? Clearly either the data is wrong or that statistical measurement is unreliable.

by Rays4242 on Jan 12, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Eric Hinske =

…Her?

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Jan 12, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions  

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