So...Kapler

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 4:17 PM EST Comment 65 comments

There's almost no way the Rays "lose" on this deal. One year, one million, this is like the least risky signing you can make, and with a player coming off of a solid year it's a no brainer. Of course, Kapler's not going to have a wOBA of .362 again, to expect that is to expect disappointment. Even so, Kapler's a pretty safe bet to make the Rays a profit here.

CHONE says 0.3 runs above average, Marcels says 1.4. Either way, combine that with 2 < x > 5 defense and a typical 4th/platoon outfielders share of at-bats and we're looking at something like this:

3+0-5.5+10 = 7.5 runs or 0.75 WAR

That means Kapler is underpaid by about three million. Considering Rocco can earn roster bonuses totaling 1.75 million if he's magically cured, the Rays are getting better bang for their buck with Kapler, who can save Andrew Friedman from a burning Tropicana Field, rid the world of MySpace angles, and cure the lizard people while still making only one million.

For Gabe Gross, well, this is just some more writing on the wall. Whatever happens with Gross won't tarnish the fact that he was an extremely solid player for the Rays and at an unbelievably low price. Gross' salary will likely come close to Kapler's meaning he's more likely to go, but I would still anticipate the Rays clearing some more payroll in the coming weeks.

As for new Gabe, just keep your shirt on guy, and hopefully our pitching staff won't give you reasons to make catches like this:

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i don't like it. i think Fernie can put up comperable production

by walkoffwalk on Jan 12, 2009 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

One of the smartest front offices in baseball doesn't think so

Not yet anyway.

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 12, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Rays

do not believe Perez has the arm to play RF.

by bobr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I also believe

that they dont want Nando to just be a platoon player/4th outfielder when he could be playing everyday and getting better

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 12, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WOW

WOW
WOW

I miss both Gabes :(

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by jhmoore on Jan 12, 2009 6:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Now playing in Right Field for your Tampa Bay Rays...

by floridaroar on Jan 12, 2009 6:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Considering Rocco can earn roster bonuses totaling 1.75 million if he's magically cured

magically cured? You mean if his condition is treatable like the doctors say? I dont think a miracal cure was a part of ANY teams thought process when they were pursuing Rocco.

Its pretty hypocritical to me for you to say not signing Rocco was the “right baseball move” and then praising the signing of Kapler who will come in and serve the same role Rocco wouldve for similar money, half the talent, and at a much older age. Not a whole lot of logic behind that.

btw, I like the Kapler signing for the same reason I wouldve liked the Rocco signing. Because hes RH and can platoon or be a 4th OFer. Great signing

I just think your bias against Rocco is obvious, and I think it has nothign to do with his condition or whether it is treatable or not and more to do with your dislike for him as a player WHEN he has been healthy the past few years. I just wish you would come out and say it instead of overemphasizing other concerns like “we already have OF options” (apparently not since we signed Kapler), or “the doctors must be lieing about his new disagnoses”, or saying a “magical cure” has any bearing on next season

by Rays4242 on Jan 12, 2009 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Talk to me when Rocco is healthy all season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.

Its pretty hypocritical to me for you to say not signing Rocco was the "right baseball move" and then praising the signing of Kapler who will come in and serve the same role Rocco wouldve for similar money, half the talent, and at a much older age. Not a whole lot of logic behind that.

Signing healthy players is a better baseball move than signing non-healthy players.

I just think your bias against Rocco is obvious, and I think it has nothign to do with his condition or whether it is treatable or not and more to do with your dislike for him as a player WHEN he has been healthy the past few years. I just wish you would come out and say it instead of overemphasizing other concerns like "we already have OF options" (apparently not since we signed Kapler), or "the doctors must be lieing about his new disagnoses", or saying a "magical cure" has any bearing on next season

Sweet, accuse me of bias to make your point. That always works well…

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also rocco could get 1.75 million with incentives

and gabe kapler kills lefty pitching

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 12, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

Rocco could get up to $7M with incentives. He’ll get $2.5M (.75M base PLUS 1.75 in incentives) if he merely stays healthy for half the season.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 13, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh and one last thing:

“"the doctors must be lieing about his new disagnoses”

I never said that. Never.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you not simply take Friedman at his word?

Given there is no reason to suspect him of lying when he says the Rays did not have the financial flexibility to sign Rocco so they moved on to Kapler whose salary is definite, do you have some reason to think he too was biased against Rocco?

I cannot imagine why anyone would consider the Kapler deal a mistake because Rocco was available. The reason is obvious; the team was risking more with Baldelli and did not consider it had the financial wherewithal to take that risk.

by bobr on Jan 12, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

If Rocco really is healthy he’s going to make 7 million. That’s more than the Rays can spend.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

In order to reach the $7 million amount Rocco must have 600 AB’s. Let’s at least compare likelihoods and not your biased opinions. As a Red Sox fan for life we have pulled off a great signing while you have taken the best option left on the heap. Remember we have had Gabe, and while he was a useful reserve, a great teammate, and a fan favorite there is NO WAY that I pick Gabe for my roster instead of Rocco. All it takes is one trip for 15 days to the DL for a minor injury to make Kapler twice as expensive!! We win – you lose!!!

by pauld on Jan 12, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

we win- you lose?

just like in the ALCS right?

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 12, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"All it takes is one trip for 15 days to the DL for a minor injury to make Kapler twice as expensive!! "

That’s not true, like, at all.

In order to reach the $7 million amount Rocco must have 600 AB’s

Oh, well then, don’t worry about that. He hasn’t had 600 ABs since 2005, not along in one season.

Let’s at least compare likelihoods and not your biased opinions. As a Red Sox fan for life

Mmhm.

Remember we have had Gabe, and while he was a useful reserve, a great teammate, and a fan favorite there is NO WAY that I pick Gabe for my roster instead of Rocco.

Remember, we have had Rocco, and while he was a great teammate and a fan favorite, there’s no way to guarantee his health will make him an asset.

It’s a decent risk, but we’re talking about signing an average player for 1 mil on the free agent market. That happens like never.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baldelli was a good signing for the Red Sox.

But he would not have been a good one for the Rays. You cannot consider deals in a void. You have to consider what teams need, what they can afford to risk and many other factors. If Baldelli gets his 600 ABs for Boston and plays up to his potential, he will be worth the money to Boston. If Kapler does what the Rays expect, play about 1/3 of the time (against lefties) and provide some power and decent outfield play, he will be worth the money the Rays are investing. But there is no way Baldelli would be worth the risk the Rays would be taking to sign him to the contract he got from Boston. So Kapler was not a leftover for the Rays; he was a good signing.

by bobr on Jan 12, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bobr your posts are always long, but make complete sense lol

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 12, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They make less sense when I'm drunk.

by floridaroar on Jan 12, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha but doesnt just about everything?

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 13, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, some things make perfect sense when I'm drunk.

by floridaroar on Jan 13, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're wrong about Rocco's contract

He only needs to spend half a season off the DL to get the $1.75M roster bonus.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 13, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And

There’s an intermediate bonus threshhold for 300 ABs that triggers another large incentive.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 13, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're talking to a wall Bob

Dude doesn’t listen to solid arguments unless they further his agenda

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 12, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Rocco plays as much as Kapler will play

He will earn 2.5 times as much as Kapler. If Rocco becomes a starter for a decent chunk of the season, he will earn 6 times as much as Kapler. Of course, it’s fairly unlikely that he’ll be able to earn those bonuses because EVEN BEFORE HE HAD ANY DISORDER HE COULD NEVER STAY HEALTHY. But, if he does stay healthy like we can reasonably expect Kapler to do, then he will be making SIGNIFICANTLY more than Kapler.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 12, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

That's not logic.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you're referring to what I said above

my comment was in reference to Rays4242 never admitting he could possibly be wrong, while arguing emotionally that everyone else is.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 12, 2009 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It wasn't.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate you

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 13, 2009 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So I'm curious

If the Rays are interested in trading Gross by the end of spring training, and the Brewers are interested, what would be a reasonable trade? You have no weaknesses/holes. A bullpen guy would be pretty much useless to you— we already jacked Morlan, and we have no one better than what you already have. Want a lower-level hitting prospect? You don’t really need any pitchers, unless you want Josh #$@$ Butler back. I want my Gabe please.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 12, 2009 7:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jon Lucroy!

There’s a ton of green on West Virgina’s roster.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One of the catching prospects would be nice

But pretty much any C+ prospect who isn’t on the 40-man roster would be sufficient.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 12, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know much about their farm system

How do the hitters on the WV roster rank?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not too sure about the rest of the team

But Lucroy is well regarded. Probably too well regarded to be traded for a guy who the same team basically gave away for free last year, if only because it makes the GM look like a fool.

Sickels’ top 20:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/10/688512/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-p

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 12, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eric Fryer was one who caught my eye.

I have no idea what he profiles like.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's credible if he can stick at catcher

The Brewers moved him to OF when Lucroy was in low-A, but I don’t know whether that’s an indictment of his ability as a catcher or was just because Lucroy is the better prospect. I don’t think he’s perceived as much of a prospect. He’s on the old side and wasn’t a great hitter in college.

Draft profile read as follows:

“Eric Fryer is one of the most athletic catchers in college baseball, a 6-foot-2, 215-pounder with average speed and arm strength to go with solid gap power. He also has the leadership skills teams want in a catcher. The biggest question with Fryer is his bat. He has a short swing, but he also employs a toe tap and needs a better trigger for his load. A club that believes he can make the necessary adjustments could pop him as early as the fifth round.”

Sickels has him rated as a C prospect. A lot more info on him as of draft time is at http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/forum/viewtopic/id/3344.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 12, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Lucroy is pretty well regarded

A lot of us like him better than Angel Salome, who put up a .900 OPS at AA this year; Lucroy on the other hand can actually play defense. Fryer would be the type of guy that would make sense here. He’s the 4th catcher on the food chain behind Salome, Lucroy, and Lawrie, but he had a heck of a year, though he did kinda come out of nowhere. He played some in the outfield, too, but he’s not regarded as a bad defensive catcher or anything.

West Virginia actually isn’t a Brewer affiliate anymore, not sure if you’re aware of that, the contract ended this year. They’re going to play up in Wisconsin now in Appleton, a former Mariner affiliate.

There’s plenty of guys I could recommend, but you probably wouldn’t want any of them. Unless you want— Butler! or Carlos George, who is a Brew Crew Ball favorite (please note: this is sarcastic). Only 37 errors in 41 games, and a .560 OPS!

If you’re interested in more random speculation/trade/prospect talk, the Brewers could use a Fernando Perez. I don’t know how highly he’s valued, but i think our DMGM would give up a better catcher for him.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 12, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't aware of the affiliate change, I was going off of last year's stats though.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 12, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just thought you'd like to know

as you mentioned WV a few times. But yeah, Fryer.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 12, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great signing.

I wish we could have gotten him, but Baldelli and Kotsay will do. It’s not like y’all need a 4th OF who can play 1B. Pena looks to be there for a while, barring catastrophic injury.
Hope he feels torn if we get in another fight though. He used to help Papi whoop MFY ass.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 12, 2009 7:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

MFY ass?

by walkoffwalk on Jan 12, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mother F'n Yankees.

It’s an old nickname. It makes sense again.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 13, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know we don't care much about Durham's success but damn

their OF is looking like it will be LF Ruggiano CF Perez RF Joyce. They will also have Jaso at C, Brignac at SS, Davis and Talbot in the rotation, that’s some team. So awesome that all those guys are close/ready for the majors

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 12, 2009 10:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ok this excites me, look at this

All these guys should be in AAA, very close to the majors

C Jaso
1B Hughes
2B Johnson?
SS Brignac
3B Nowak
LF Ruggiano
CF Perez
RF Joyce
DH Could be so many players, I like JT Hall

Davis, Talbot, Rollins top 3 in the rotation

When did our depth become so awesome?

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 12, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow i think that team might have a shot against some of the lower MLB teams

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 12, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Solid pen also

Thayer
Salas
Choate
Day
Childers
DePaula
And either we make a deal to keep D-Rod or maybe call Reid up to AAA

We are certainly prepared for injuries.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 12, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow i love our depth

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 13, 2009 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget Houser

Who will probably be ahead of Rollins in the rotation. Actually, I’d be surprised if Rollins doesn’t start the season in AA. Hughes probably also as well.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 13, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Jan 13, 2009 12:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I can't wait til the locals call for Kapler to replace Upton, because Kapler is "gritty".

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 13, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This will definitely happen.

It happened last year in Milwaukee. With Mike Cameron. No joke. “Kapler puts the bat on the ball!!!1 get that no good K machine asshole Cameron out of the lineup”

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 13, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You guys have Ueck

That is where I would go if I wanted to know anything about the Brewers. I bought the MLB audio last year to listen to Rays games after turning my cable off, and ended up listening to quite a few Brewers game just because of Uecker. That guy could make watching a funeral procession a good time.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 13, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But Mike Cameron is awesome.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 13, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know this.

They do not. That’s a July gamethread on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s news blog. Kapler was starting in center. Here’s one:

The only blessing is that Weeks and Cameron are out of the lineup.

Weeks/Cameron/Hall … until they are permanently replaced, this team goes nowhere. Face the facts, three sub .220 hitters regularly in a lineup is like having four pitchers hitting.

With the implication Kapler is better

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 13, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs