The Curious Case of Dan Wheeler

by Thejeffg on Jan 13, 2009 2:57 PM EST Comment 14 comments

Dan Wheeler is actually a good pitcher. His numbers are good, and aside from 07 they've been really good his whole career. When he gets into trouble its because of the long ball. His HR/9 is too high in all but his best seasons. But it isn't horrible. The reason we might have mixed-feelings about Wheeler is probably only half justified- The rest is perception bias:

Last season he saw 207 plate appearances late and close and allowed only .656 OPS.

But in just 50 PAs in 17 games that were Tied, he gave up 4 bombs and allowed a 1.047 OPS.

Yes he choked at key times, but then again many other times he was nails. Of course, everybody remembers the bad over the good. Yet while he is still a valuable pitcher, there are warning signs:

Yes his k/9 has declined from his career peeks, but 7.2 k/9 and relatively low walk rate puts him in with a cohort of effective relievers. The real problem is the long ball and when you see a guy who has always hung around 38%-36% GB% fall to 28% GB% I think we see the problem-

Um, Hey Dan? Yeah, could you go ahead and keep that ball down?

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I think you make good points.

I was looking at Wheeler’s stats, career and 2008, and there are conflicting elements among them. For example, his line drive rate was better than usual last year but his home run rate was poorer than usual. He also relied more on his fastball and less on his slider than in past years. I wonder why.

Anyway, leaving aside the contract, I don’t think Wheeler is as bad as some people make out. He is a decent middle reliever who will have some bad stretches but is usually effective enough.

by bobr on Jan 13, 2009 4:30 PM EST reply actions

Having Wheeler pitch in the 9th probably hurt his image more so than if he were pitching in the 7th/8th.

Plus, despite the shiny ERA, his FIP was the highest since his Devil Ray days. I’m not entirely convinced he’s only a 0.1 WAR pitcher, but I’m also not convinced he’s still the 0.7 type he was just a few years ago.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 13, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, plus

from August 30 through Sept. he had 3 really terrible outings and gave up at least one hit &/or walk in most of the other 8, so people tend to remember his struggles. And then he had an awful post-season.

by bobr on Jan 13, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah.

The thing that concerns me most about Wheeler moving forward are:

- Strikeout totals, whether they continue to decline or remain static.
- Homerun rate, see above.
- BABIP. .202 last year. That’s likely to regress hard, which means more hits, which means a homerun damages us more.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 13, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

So can there be such thing as a "choke" if there's no such thing as "clutch"?

hmmmm

by Rays4242 on Jan 13, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions

I don't know. Why don't you take Wheeler's career, cut it up into random samples, and let us know.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 13, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

There is such a thing as clutch

It’s just usually statistically insignificant, and not usually attributed to the proper people.

Good players usually show no ‘clutch’ statistically, simply because the best players are usually always trying 100%. There are some guys who do try harder in certain situations than others, as well as some guys who just get extra adrenaline in big situations (although that tends to wear off as a career goes on), although that’s unhelpful as often as it’s helpful, and some guys who really do melt down in big spots.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 13, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

And when clutch occurs, even in a statistically significant sense

It’s usually not enough to make them better than a simply more talented player anyway.

---
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by Jack Moore on Jan 14, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions

I think the idea is that clutch is driven by perception as much as performance

But the real point is that Wheeler’s FB% is up (his GB% way down, his LD% steady). According to The Hardball Times, all pitchers give up homeruns at the same rate on Fly Balls, so higher FB% means more jacks.

by Thejeffg on Jan 13, 2009 5:16 PM EST reply actions

if wheeler is back next year he will have to earn my trust in september and october

maybe it was that he is not a closer, but even when he wasnt the closer and working the 7-8 innings in september and october, i could barely watch without my heart beating through my throat, waiting to explode and im only 19!

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 13, 2009 9:47 PM EST reply actions

It's interesting that for his career

Wheeler has generally pitched very poorly in September/October. There were 2 years when he was very good or good at the end, but usually he was terrible. I wonder if he doesn’t wear down.

Of course, we do have to realize that we are talking about 7-14 innings of work each year. And also that his K rate tends to remain very good at the end of the year although he has walked more then. Plus, in 2006 he actually had a terrific September. So it may all mean nothing.

by bobr on Jan 13, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

Welcome to playoff baseball

when it’s always "my heart beating through my throat, waiting to explode ". It’s not so much easier when you’re older.

As usual Bob I think you and RJ have it nailed. Performance varies more widely when viewed in smaller samples of time / importance.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 15, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions

New Issue

I had thought I had hit on the core issue with Wheeler but this clouds the picture a bit:

His decline in effectiveness late in the season wasn’t predicated as much on an upward sloping FB%. He actually spent the entire season giving up more FB than ever. Around mid-season what actually happened was he started giving up more line drives and getting less grounders.

Wheeler’s GB/FB/LD

This is concerning because it seems to say, flyballs and homeruns were a problem that needs to be addressed, but really he was getting hit harder in general as the season went on and was generally getting lucky since he wasn’t even taking advantage of the defense. In other words, many of the liners he was giving up must have been hit right at people. This would explain the lucky BABIP.

Maddon may be the best defensive alignment guy in the world (he certainly wasn’t conventional- so there may be a little to this since Wheeler wasn’t the only guy with a “lucky” BABIP), but clearly Wheeler can’t trade on that next season. He will need to get a lot more grounders next year or the regression will be very painful.

by Thejeffg on Jan 15, 2009 12:26 PM EST reply actions

Well

on the other hand of the “BABIP” equation we have Sonny who might as well have had the local bar’s junkies fielding behind him. Thats an overexaggeration and I know where you’re coming from, however…

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 15, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions