Community Projection: Position Player PT

by rglass44 on Jan 15, 2009 1:49 PM EST Comment 45 comments

OK we are going to start the PT projections with the position players. This is how you should format your posts:

Title:PT projection

Body:

C: Player A (%)

Player B (%)

Player C (%), etc.

1B: Player A (%)

Player B (%)

etc.

2B: same

3B: same

SS: same

RF: same

CF: same

LF: same

DH: same

Please do all positions in the manner outlined because it makes it easier to compile. Also, if you want to discuss someone's merely reply and don't put the title above. This could be a fun start to this exercise, and we'll get to the pitcher's later in the week.

I only have like 7 so far, so everyone please do this. Tomorrow we'll start working on the SP Projections, but I'd like to have at least 10 peoples' feelings on the matter.

2 recs | Comment 45 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

PT Projection

C Navarro (75)
Riggans (15)
Jaso (10)
1B Pena (90)
Aybar (10)
2B Iwamura (90)
Aybar (10)
3B Longoria (85)
Aybar (10)
Zobrist (5)
SS Bartlett (80)
Aybar (10)
Zobrist (10)
RF Joyce (40)
Gross (25)
Kapler (20)
Zobrist (10)
Perez (5)
CF Upton (80)
Kapler (10)
Perez (10)
LF Crawford (80)
Kapler (10)
Perez (5)
Zobrist (5)
DH Burrell (90)
Aybar (5)
Crawford (5)

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PT Projections

C: Navarro (70)
Riggans (25)
Jaso (5%)

1B: Pena (90)
Aybar (10)

2B: Iwamura (90)
Aybar (10)

3B: Longoria (95)
Aybar (10)

SS: Bartlett (85)
Brignac (15)

RF: Gross(50)
Kapler (35)
Zobrist (10)
Joyce (5)

CF: Upton (95)
Kapler (5)

LF: Crawford (80)
Zobrist (12)
Burrell (8%)

DH: Burrell (85)
Aybar (5)
Other (injured players etc) 10%

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Jan 14, 2009 12:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

at 3B you have 105%?

So is Longo going to play extra hard?

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes make that 5% for Aybar please

And 100% for Longo.

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Jan 14, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

k

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Get on RJ then

He did the same thing

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 14, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

I didn’t even notice his yet.

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I did?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 14, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nevermind.

I didn’t notice the extra 5% to Zobrist.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 14, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.

C Navarro (75)
Riggans (20)
Jaso (5)
1B Pena (90)
Aybar (10)
2B Iwamura (90)
Aybar (10)
3B Longoria (90)
Aybar (10)
Zobrist (5)
SS Bartlett (80)
Aybar (10)
Zobrist (10)
RF Joyce (40)
Gross (25)
Kapler (20)
Zobrist (10)
Perez (5)
CF Upton (80)
Kapler (10)
Perez (10)
LF Crawford (80)
Kapler (10)
Perez (5)
Zobrist (5)
DH Burrell (90)
Aybar (5)
Crawford (5)

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 14, 2009 1:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

C:
Navarro: 65%
Riggans: 25%
Greene (midseason short-term sign while Navarro is injured): 5%
Jaso: 5%

1B:
Pena: 85%
Aybar: 15%

2B:
Iwamura: 75%
Aybar: 10%
Zobrist: 10%
Johnson: 5%

SS:
Bartlett: 80%
Zobrist: 10%
Brignac: 10%

3B:
Longoria: 90%
Aybar: 10%

DH:
Burrell: 85%
Aybar: 12%
Longoria: 3%

RF:
Joyce: 45%
Gross: 20%
Kapler: 15%
Zobrist: 13%
Perez: 5%
Ruggiano: 2%

CF:
Upton: 65%
Perez: 20%
Kapler: 15%

LF:
Crawford: 70%
Zobrist: 10%
Kapler: 10%
Burrell: 5%
Perez: 5%

This is assuming that Navarro, Upton and Crawford spend a chunk of the season on the DL. I’m also guessing that Bartlett and Iwamura have shorter stints on the DL. I’m also holding to my prediction that Gross is dumped or traded by the end of May.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 14, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also

Perez rides the shuttle flight between Durham and Tampa all year long. Johnson and Brignac get brief calls up while Iwamura and Bartlett are down, respectively. Ruggiano gets a late season call up, but he doesn’t do as well in AAA as he did last year.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 14, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Which Greene for Catcher?

You aren’t referring to Todd are you?

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes I am

I doubt it would actually be Greene who we sign to a short deal (it’s more likely we find an Indy League refugee like Hernandez), but Greene is the most readily available, since he’s already on the staff, so I used his name. You can sub out “random backup type catcher we sign for peanuts because Jaso can’t catch” if that works better for you.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 14, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

That’s what I figured you meant. I’ll just use RL for that position.

by rglass44 on Jan 14, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...

C Navarro (80)
Riggans (15)
Jaso (5)
1B Pena (90)
Aybar (10)
2B Iwamura (85)
Aybar (5)
Zobrist(5)
Bartlett(5)
3B Longoria (90)
Aybar (10)
SS Bartlett (80)
Zobrist (10)
Brignac(10)
RF Gross (35)
Kapler(30)
Joyce (25)
Zobrist (5)
Perez (5)
CF Upton (75)
Kapler (15)
Perez (5)
Zobrist(5)
LF Crawford (80)
Kapler (10)
Zobrist (10)
DH Burrell (95)
Aybar (5)

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 14, 2009 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Upton

If Upton only plays 75% that means he’s only playing about 120 games. I hope that is not the case.

by rpickett00 on Jan 14, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a reasonable assumption though

He’s coming off major surgery, and this front office has a history of playing it really safe with injuries.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 15, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

David Price is god

C Navarro 80%
Riggans 15%
Jaso 5%

1B Pena 90%
Aybar 10%

2B Iwamura 80%
Zobrist 10%
Aybar 7%
Brignac 3%

SS Bartlett 80%
Brignac 15%
Zobrist 5%

3B Longoria 90%
Aybar 10%

LF Crawford 85%
Kapler 10%
Perez 5%

CF Upton 75%
Perez 10%

RF Joyce 30%
Gross 30%
Kapler 25%
Perez 10%
Zobrist 5%

DH Burrell 90%
Aybar 10%

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 14, 2009 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I messed up CF

Upon 75
Kapler 15
Perez 10

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 14, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

C Navarro 75%
Riggans 20%
Jaso 5%

1B Pena 85%
Aybar 15%

2B Iwamura 85%
Aybar 10%
Zobrist 5%

SS Bartlett 70%
Zobrist 30%

3B Longoria 90%
Aybar 10%

RF Joyce 45%
Mid-season pickup 15%
Gross 15%
Kapler 15%
Perez 5%
Aybar 5%

CF Upton 95%
Perez 5%

LF Crawford 85%
Kapler 5%
Perez 5%
Burrell 5%

DH Burrell 90%
Kapler 5%
Aybar 5%

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Jan 15, 2009 5:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Right now I have 7.

I’d like to get this over 10. There are a number of regular posters that have yet to do this. Please take a few minutes and compile a list. I no longer care about formatting.

by rglass44 on Jan 15, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Move it back up to the top with an update

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 15, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I will in a bit.

by rglass44 on Jan 15, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PT Projections

Mine are probably a little off by player, but nobody’s playing more than 100% I also think that the majority of the non-starting playing time in the IF is going to come in as late-game replacements; either defensive or pinch-hitting.

C: Navarro (80)
Riggans (15)
Jaso (5)

1B: Pena (84)
Aybar (14)
Burrell (2)

2B: Iwamura (85)
Aybar (10)
Zobrist (5)

SS: Bartlett (85)
Aybar (15)
Brignac (5)

3B: Longoria (90)
Aybar (10)

LF: Crawford (80)
Burrell (10)
Zobrist (10)

CF: Upton (70)
Kapler (10)
Perez (10)
Zobrist (5)

RF: Gross (55)
Kapler (20)
Zobrist (10)
Joyce (5)
Upton (5)
Perez (2.5)

DH: Burrell (80)
Crawford (15)
Aybar (5)

by kericr on Jan 15, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Math mess-up in RF

What I meant was:

Gross (57.5)
Kapler (20)
Zobrist (10)
Upton (5)
Perez (5)
Joyce (2.5)

by kericr on Jan 15, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My predictions

C: Navi (75)
Riggans (20)
Jaso (5%)

1B: Pena (85)
Aybar (15)

2B: Aki (85)
Aybar (10)
Zobrist (5%)

SS: Bartlett (90)
Zobrist (5)
Briganc (5%)

3B: Longo (90)
Aybar (10)

LF: CC (80)
Zobrist (5)
Perez (5)
Kapler (5)
Burrell (5%)

CF: Upton (80)
Perez (10)
Kapler (5)
Gross (5)

RF:
Gross (40)
Kapler (20)
Joyce (20)
Zobrist (10)
Perez (10%)

DH: Burrell (85)
Aybar (10)
Pena (5%)

by RaysTheRoof on Jan 15, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Define Definitive

C: Navarro (75)
Riggans (20)
Hernandez (5)

1B: Pena (85)
Aybar (15)

2B: Iwamura (90)
Aybar (7)
Zobrist (3)

SS: Bartlett (85)
Longoria (10)
Zobrist (5)

3B: Longoria (90)
Aybar (10)

LF: Crawford (90)
Zobrist (8)
Burrell (2)

CF: Upton (70)
Kapler (10)
Perez (10)

RF: Joyce (40)
Gross (25)
Kapler (20)
Perez (15)

DH: Burrell (80)
Aybar (15)
Zobrist (1)
Crawford (1)
Upton (1)
Pena (1)
Longoria (1)

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 15, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Isn't Hernandez with the Mets?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 15, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If so put Bobby Ramos or Mad Dog

in there before Jaso for those games. I don’t see the young man getting PT until next year at the earliest.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 15, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hear ya

I pretty much did the same thing. I think we’ll have some random backup for a while.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 15, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks ya'll !

by rglass44 on Jan 15, 2009 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How will these %s be adjusted for lineup position?

100% at SS is different compared to 100% at 1B. Maybe 650 PAs compared to 720.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 15, 2009 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

They're not adjusted offensively

There’s a standard positional adjustment to WAR. Can’t remember the exact numbers (DH is around -12.5, 1B is around -7.5, etc.)

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 15, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I mean, 1Bs will bat 3rd (Pena) while the SSs will bat 9th (Bartlett). (As an example.)

So the 1Bs will get, say, 720 PAs between them, while the SS’s will get 650 PAs between them. 100% of the PAs at each position doesn’t result in the same number of PAs.

In other words, players who hit further towards the top of the lineup get more PAs than those at the bottom.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 15, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to account for that.

by rglass44 on Jan 15, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My questions is "how"?

It’s not a big deal, I’m just curious.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 16, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

After I get all the positional assignments together,

I am going to slot the positions based on weighted wOBA (well in this case (OBP*1.75+LG)/3), and I’ll figure out the portion of PAs for each lineup spot for the AL (from here). Then I’ll adjust it down a little because it won’t be right on. I figure that’s the best way since I am unsure what the batting order will look like.

by rglass44 on Jan 16, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

*weighted average

by rglass44 on Jan 16, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let me know if you have a better idea...

by rglass44 on Jan 16, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My thinking behind it...

Since we are projecting less PA for CC/Upton it makes sense that Burrell, Longo, Pena, etc.’s positions will see more PAs due to the fact that the starters will see a larger share. Regardless, it will likely be a difference of 100 PA one way or the other…

by rglass44 on Jan 16, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a projection

You take what we know and do the best you can to account for what may happen. When I forecast things I make it very clear my methodology and then present the data. I don’t think in your formulas 600 PA’s vs 575 is going to make a huge deal so I wouldn’t get to concerned with fluky things that could happen. What you posted above sounds pretty reasonable.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 16, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At Brew Crew Ball

we’re going to do a whole separate lineup projection post to account for this. It obviously won’t be perfect, but we’ll take the best guesses at what positions hit where in the lineup. We can pinpoint that catchers hit 8th and left fielders hit 3rd, but the rest we’ll take some community input.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 16, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs