Rays Sign Lance Cormier
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 1:51 PM EST
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PrintPer the Heater, one-year 650k. Dewon Day promptly designated for assignment. The deal is advertised as a one-year contract, but the Rays will actually control Cormier's rights for an additional season, assuming they tender him next off-season.
Cormier is a 28-year old groundballer with a career FIP of 5.45. As told, Cormier has a career 51.1 groundball percentage, and pitched well with Baltimore last season, 71.7 innings and a 4.04 FIP. CHONE has him dangerously close to replacement level (4.49 FIP, 71 innings) and Cormier's stuff relies on a cutter and curve. Cormier spent 2006 and 2007 with the Braves as a starter, and saw his numbers suffer because of it. Cormier's 2008 tRA was 4.53, his lowest in a while, but it's worth noting his tRA* have annually been lower than his actual tRA.
Cormier has a bit of a problem with walks, and actually fares better against left-handed batters, although neither of his career platoon splits are overly encouraging. And then again, nor is homerun per nine splits, although those seem to be more of an issue stemming from starting.
| Year | StartIP% | LHBOPS | RHBOPS |
| 2008 | 4 | 0.667 | 0.772 |
| 2007 | 98 | 0.851 | 1.115 |
| 2006 | 65 | 0.787 | 0.952 |
| 2005 | 0 | 0.849 | 0.795 |
| 2004 | 47 | 0.85 | 1.311 |
| Year | StartIP% | FIP |
| 2008 | 4 | 4.04 |
| 2007 | 98 | 8.06 |
| 2006 | 65 | 5.06 |
| 2005 | 0 | 4.39 |
| 2004 | 47 | 7.5 |
So, looks like he's better when relieving.
| Career | IP | HR/IP | K/IP | BB/IP |
| Starter | 117 | 0.265 | 0.59 | 0.453 |
| Reliever | 198.7 | 0.086 | 0.674 | 0.554 |
Tommy's take from Dec 17th
Today's candidate is another AL East non-tender, Lance Cormier. Cormier is somewhat of a swing man. He has been used predominately as a reliever(144 career relief appearances), but has made 24 starts including 19 over the past three seasons. Originally a draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks, he has also pitched for the Atlanta Braves and most recently with the Baltimore Orioles in 2008.
We love to look at the splits here at DraysBay, but we might not want to look at Cormier's splits because they are just awful. For his career, his LHOPS against is .858 which is bad, but that's a righty facing a lefty. Certainly his numbers vs. right handers must be better....wrong. His RHOPS against is a whopping .883. Basically, he turns a left handed batter into Joe Mauer and right handed batter into Miguel Cabrera. Career wise he doesn't look like a good option, but his 2008 season was very encouraging.
His FIP of 4.04 would've been the third best in the Rays bullpen behind Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell. His OPS splits also dramatically decreased on both sides, but especially against left-handed batters. His RHOPS against dropped over .100 points to .772 and his LHOPS dropped almost .200 down to a loogy like .667. That's a very encouraging number given the fact that he logged 31.2 innings vs. left handed batters in 2008. Also very encouraging is the number for ground balls he induced. For his career, he is over 51% ground-ball, but in 2008 that number increased to 56.8% while his fly-ball percentage dropped from 27.5% to 22.00%
So what was different from 2008 than the seasons past? Pitch selection. Cormier has three main pitches: A fastball around 90, a cutter around 88 and a curveball around 78. In previous seasons he threw that fastball over 50% of the time, but in 2008 he dropped that way down to 28%. While limiting his fastball, he started throwing his cutter a little more and his curveball a lot more. He threw his curveball almost 12% more in 2008 than in 2007 and 15% more than 2006. His career K/BB rate of 1.25 is poor and his SwStr% is unimpressive, but then again so was Chad Bradford's and Cormier won't cost $3.5 million.
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please be true
'talkin 'bout practice?
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 16, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
It's nice when the organization actually listens to you.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 16, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm sure they looked at him before you wrote anything though.
by Erik Hahmann on Jan 16, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
They probably never heard of Lance Cormier until I wrote that
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 16, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
With all those groundballs coming from Cormier, I think it is bye-bye Bradford
A team cannot carry two soft-tossing groundball machines with such poor K% and K/BB like that.
Possible
I can’t see anyone else claiming him on waivers, although the entire NL still gets a crack at him.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Ah...The Memories
I was about to say “so does the rest of the AL”, and then I rememebered the 2008 season and a smile graced my face.
So 1 decent season from Cormier
turned him into Chad Bradford for life? Maybe.
RJ’s point is taken, some org will jump on Bradford. Relatively consistent good results bring interest for relievers. Clearly the Rays org payroll target is no more then $60MM – moving Bradford leaves room for the last 3 arb deals. Any talk of extending Pudgito? I assume Barty and Aybar are looking at 1 year.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions
No but for 2009
I rather have Cormier at 675k + the possible trade return for Bradford than Bradford at 3.5 million.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 16, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not so sure about that...
Unless the return is higher for Bradford than we expect. Using their average projected FIPs from Marcels and CHONE:
FA $ WAR
bradford, 3.015893718, 0.540473909
cormier, 0.474463127, 0.015384944
Both will be overpaid (Bradford moreso), but Cormier is practically RL whereas Bradford’s a half a win better.
Your numbers came out a bit hard to read.
WARs are 0.54 and 0.02 right?
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Then you're saying
Cormier has turned some career corner – which is certainly possible – and isn’t going to regress towards prior season’s performance. Hey, he’s younger, so going forward that’s possible.
One question is will you get more than you gave for Bradford, the PTBN which hasn’t been announced yet to my knowledge. That could wash out that side of the equation. Then, which is the better bet for 2009. Perhaps we should see the full projections for each. I see this is now posted below, and looks to defeat the argument some.
But I don’t just knee jerk buy the cost vs performance issue – you’re trying to win ballgames. Who best helps. Neither is signed beyond 2009, though Cormier would be controlled. Could be the right thing, but for a contender, might not. Does Cormier have options left? Doubt it.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
You're gonna have to point that out
Hard to believe MLB would allow such – get a guy to help you for a bit, then just give him back. Seems like something that would be looked at kind of funny.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
I believe something else has to be involved in the deal to do this
But I thought there was cash exchanged as well, so the deal ends up being a cash rental, basically.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Juan Rincon looks interesting on that graph
Are plots career or 2008?
At least on the graph, it’s good tobe Rincon!
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 2:37 PM EST reply actions
both juans look great on here
too bad ones a type A
'talkin 'bout practice?
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 16, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Than the Rincon Juan's #'s make more sense
Serious decline of late. The Other Rincon’s#’s might also be skewed.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Nice of mlbtraderumors to site Gaines as the story when he trailed this post by a good 30 minutes
Not to mention, Tommy’s fine work from December.
Gaines writes for MLBTR, doesn't he?
It would seem to fill their self-interest to quote him as a source.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Didn't Dierkes also post that Upton was arb eligible?
MLBTR’s nice for a psuedo-RSS feed, but any analysis worthwhile should be found elsewhere.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
You need to do as I do and just RSS all the columnists he follows directly.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on Jan 16, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I could see the end result there.
DRAYSBAY LIKES TO RUIN BUSINESS MODELS.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
that was posted about upton
but like most of his post he was just summarizing what the writer had said (from ESPN) , both could have done better.
'talkin 'bout practice?
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 16, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Gotcha.
I didn’t click through, but yeah, I took ten seconds and checked Cots service time before writing it off entirely.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Don't like it at all
We already have a couple of other groundballers, albeit less proven ones, signed for less. Guaranteeing $650k to someone whose results have generally sucked and who walks a ton of guys doesn’t float my boat. I think this pushes out cheaper, better options like Choate and Rodriguez.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Not sure about Day
But I’d certainly rather let Choate and Rodriguez and Thayer and Hammel duke it out for that last roster spot.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
I'm a fan of Choate/Rodriguez/Thayer
Hammel I’m lukewarm on.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Where is Niemann fitting in all this?
Guess you’re assuming Bradford gone, so Percy (if on DL another spot opens), Wheeler, Balfour, Howell, Nelson, Niemann, then Cormier / Hammel / others?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Probably the fifth starter until Price is up.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Price not up right away?
Innings load? Service time delay?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't have Price's IP in head
But gotta figure him for only about 150 (same # for Joba in NY).
Niemann needs the exposure / experience as its likely he’ll get even more time with other injuries. Although I saw an interesting concept proposed re Joba the other day – make him #5, and limit him to 5 IP, with a long guy behind him. Maybe stretch him out a bit late in season. Could work for nearly 30 starts. Same concept would work here.
But wouldn’t reduce Price’s service time.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 16, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Also needs to work on his change up more.
I rather he not do that agianst the Red Sox and Yankees.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 16, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see any reason why they'd do this
You generally don’t need a 5th starter for the first month anyway. That limits Price’s innings. Niemann’s a swingman who’s guaranteed a roster spot, one way or the other. I can almost guarantee you someone from the rotation will end up on the DL at some point. It almost always happens, and Kazmir and Shields have injury histories.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
They're really going to keep Price in AAA for 2 1/2 months?
You’ve gotta be kidding.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
I don't know.
But I wouldn’t be shocked if he starts the season in the minors.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 17, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Even when I wrote the thing on Cormier last month
I was thinking more of an NRI type thing. I never though of him getting a major league deal right off the bat. Oh well guess we’ll see what happens next.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 16, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
I've cooled on Hammel as well
But he has the tools. If he can keep the ball down better or sacrifice velocity for movement, he can still be quite valuable. Don’t forget he somehow managed to pull a 100 ERA+ out of his ass last year.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Which one of these is different...
76 tRA+
100 ERA+
85 FIP+
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
im surprised hammel hasnt been traded yet
maybe they will try and slip him through waivers this spring, i doubt he would make it through waivers though
TB Rays in 09!!!
Cormier in the minors and majors
I know it often happens that pitchers’ BB rates go up when they arrive in the majors while their K rates decline. But I wonder if the BB rates vary as much as Cormier’s seem to. With one exception, whenever Cormier got 50+ innings in the minors his BB rate was pretty good, 3/9 and better. But in the majors it often rose as much as 2/9. For his career, it has gone from 2.4 to 4.6 His K rate meanwhile has remained stable. (5.8-5.7)
He has also always allowed a lot of hits both in the majors and minors. And it is not true that he has avoided gopher balls in the majors. In fact, he has spent parts of 5 seasons in the majors, each time throwing more than 40 innings, and twice it has been awful. Maybe the change in his pitching pattern that was described on this site did make a difference that he can sustain.
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